5-26
$242 Twins, +132 (Buchholz/Pelfrey) W
$242 Giants, -130 (Bumgarner/Garza) W
YTD 53-40, +$4,245.14 (+21.98% RoR)
5-27
$242 Mariners-Rays, Under 6.5, -117 (Hernandez/Archer)
$242 Twins, +103 (Porcello/Hughes)
$242 Nationals, -108 (Scherzer/Lester)
BOL
Mariners-Rays: The way I see it Tripp Gibson behind the plate is going to have one of the easiest days of his career. What is hard about calling “strike one, strike two, strike three.”? The hardest part of his amount of “Red Sox may be listening to the abuse from hitters that can’t touch Hernandez or Archer, two of the top studs I the game with ratings of 81.3 and 80.8 respectively. This is way too much of a pitching “team” for the respective offensive “team”. With a combined 14-5 quality start record in a pitchers park with a neutral umpire behind the plate this game is pure pitcher’s duel.
Twins: Pardon me if I have suddenly gone stupid, but why are the Red Sox favored? As near as I can figure it has to be the old “won’t get swept” theory or just the fact that an enormous percentage of Red Sox Nation is willing to back their beloved team regardless of what the facts say. For Heaven’s sake, don’t ever let the facts get in the way of “team loyalty”.
Nationals: OK, I am ready to be bashed for this but at this moment, this point in time, Max Scherzer is the best pitcher in baseball. His 83.4 rating stands alone at the top and his h2h is 7-2, meaning only 2 guys in 9 starts have been able to post a better number. His 8-1 record in quality starts is also a remarkable number at this point in the season. The line is heavily influenced by 3 factors. 1. The popularity and success of the Cubs. 2. The quality of Jon Lester (also very high at 72.2) and 3. Good old home field advantage. All that being said, when the best chucker in the game is asked to lay only -108 he needs only a 51.9% advantage to clear the margin and I have the Nationals computed at 60.8% probability of a win.
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