Astros as very heavy favs lose two consecutive at home to Orioles.
Unique about this once in a lifetime rare occurance are these:
- first place team (Astros) vs AL last place team Orioles
- Astros at HOME where they were 26 - 13 entering the series;
- Orioles on the road were 12 - 28 entering the series @Houston
- first place Astros were a whopping +124 net run differential - best not only in AL but all of MLB!
- last place Orioles were a net -122 run differential - worst not only in AL but in all of MLB!
- the -330 and -300 lines were based on the above, NOT on AWESOME/dominating Astro's starting pitchers.
- Of course I've seen HUGE favs lose before -- MANY TIMES!Sometimes on back-to-back games!
BUT all those were a case where those favs had at least one OVERWHELMING DOMINANT "ACE" on the mound - which was the main cause for the line being so high. Those loses can much more easily occur because everything is dependent on that dominating starter to NOT have a bad outing. But they will from time to time. Happens to them all. I avoid all those HEAVY FAVS because a dominating "ACE" is on the mound games. Bad bet. He could have that bad outing! Way too risky!
But not when the TEAMS are this far apart - where there is NO DOMINATING "ACE" in either game- and on back to back nights, no less.
Never witnessed such a scenario in my 67 years. If it has happened this same way before then it is exceptionally rare.
So I bet $2,000 to win $651 that such a rare fluke would NOT happen here.
And it did.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Astros as very heavy favs lose two consecutive at home to Orioles.
Unique about this once in a lifetime rare occurance are these:
- first place team (Astros) vs AL last place team Orioles
- Astros at HOME where they were 26 - 13 entering the series;
- Orioles on the road were 12 - 28 entering the series @Houston
- first place Astros were a whopping +124 net run differential - best not only in AL but all of MLB!
- last place Orioles were a net -122 run differential - worst not only in AL but in all of MLB!
- the -330 and -300 lines were based on the above, NOT on AWESOME/dominating Astro's starting pitchers.
- Of course I've seen HUGE favs lose before -- MANY TIMES!Sometimes on back-to-back games!
BUT all those were a case where those favs had at least one OVERWHELMING DOMINANT "ACE" on the mound - which was the main cause for the line being so high. Those loses can much more easily occur because everything is dependent on that dominating starter to NOT have a bad outing. But they will from time to time. Happens to them all. I avoid all those HEAVY FAVS because a dominating "ACE" is on the mound games. Bad bet. He could have that bad outing! Way too risky!
But not when the TEAMS are this far apart - where there is NO DOMINATING "ACE" in either game- and on back to back nights, no less.
Never witnessed such a scenario in my 67 years. If it has happened this same way before then it is exceptionally rare.
So I bet $2,000 to win $651 that such a rare fluke would NOT happen here.
Was half tempted to do same after yesterdays disgusting Astros loss..but too many losing chases on "sure things" burned me out.. feel like even if it wins its bad because reinforces bad habits in my case anyway...bad beat with Hous pitcher going out early, a kick in the nads...rough one.
6
Was half tempted to do same after yesterdays disgusting Astros loss..but too many losing chases on "sure things" burned me out.. feel like even if it wins its bad because reinforces bad habits in my case anyway...bad beat with Hous pitcher going out early, a kick in the nads...rough one.
Unbelievable, but with my luck lately I believe it. They just knocked me out for the year until football at least. Take them next game and I guarantee they win since I will not be on them.
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Unbelievable, but with my luck lately I believe it. They just knocked me out for the year until football at least. Take them next game and I guarantee they win since I will not be on them.
I mean, I'm mature enough to accept my losses with my wins. No problem. Suck it up and move forward, I say.
It's just that the freaky probability had to happen on the day I bet heavy against it.
Without a dominant ace in either game the probability here was extraordinarly against losing two -300+ odds on consecutive nights at home vs the *WORST* team in the league - and 2nd worse in the majors. Almost llike betting your friend he WON'T score a miraculous "hole in one" on a 233 yard par 3 -- knowing the guy has NEVER driven the green in his life -- and then sure enough he hits a "hole in one"
Flukes happen. Tonight it just happened when I bet bet with the odds of avoiding b2b losses very heavily on my side.
7
Right, fellas.
It sucks.
I mean, I'm mature enough to accept my losses with my wins. No problem. Suck it up and move forward, I say.
It's just that the freaky probability had to happen on the day I bet heavy against it.
Without a dominant ace in either game the probability here was extraordinarly against losing two -300+ odds on consecutive nights at home vs the *WORST* team in the league - and 2nd worse in the majors. Almost llike betting your friend he WON'T score a miraculous "hole in one" on a 233 yard par 3 -- knowing the guy has NEVER driven the green in his life -- and then sure enough he hits a "hole in one"
Flukes happen. Tonight it just happened when I bet bet with the odds of avoiding b2b losses very heavily on my side.
Unbelievable, but with my luck lately I believe it. They just knocked me out for the year until football at least. Take them next game and I guarantee they win since I will not be on them.
Sorry to hear that, bud.
And yep, probably that is what will happen, but like you I too can't affor to bet on it. Too risky
1
Quote Originally Posted by Urban:
Unbelievable, but with my luck lately I believe it. They just knocked me out for the year until football at least. Take them next game and I guarantee they win since I will not be on them.
Sorry to hear that, bud.
And yep, probably that is what will happen, but like you I too can't affor to bet on it. Too risky
-300 favs are rarely easy...vegas knew it when it set the line...you unfortunately fell for the bait. Get em wed
I fell for no "bait"
I saw a one in 20 probability of losing a second consecutive night to the WORST tema in the league with arguably the WORST stats or close to it and I took that probability favoring a win.
But the fluke happened anyway.
4
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:
-300 favs are rarely easy...vegas knew it when it set the line...you unfortunately fell for the bait. Get em wed
I fell for no "bait"
I saw a one in 20 probability of losing a second consecutive night to the WORST tema in the league with arguably the WORST stats or close to it and I took that probability favoring a win.
youre talking about the hottest team in mlb vs sorriest team in mlb. you really cant think the linesman are trying to pull a reverse uno card by making the line so high as -300 to trick the bettors lol
if they truly felt orioles would win back to bavk they wouldve made the line astros -145 and get all the astros backers in lol
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@umgmu
youre talking about the hottest team in mlb vs sorriest team in mlb. you really cant think the linesman are trying to pull a reverse uno card by making the line so high as -300 to trick the bettors lol
if they truly felt orioles would win back to bavk they wouldve made the line astros -145 and get all the astros backers in lol
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: -300 favs are rarely easy...vegas knew it when it set the line...you unfortunately fell for the bait. Get em wed I fell for no "bait" I saw a one in 20 probability of losing a second consecutive night to the WORST tema in the league with arguably the WORST stats or close to it and I took that probability favoring a win. But the fluke happened anyway.
the sportsbooks love folks like you.. you keep them in business. Hope you change your thinking
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: -300 favs are rarely easy...vegas knew it when it set the line...you unfortunately fell for the bait. Get em wed I fell for no "bait" I saw a one in 20 probability of losing a second consecutive night to the WORST tema in the league with arguably the WORST stats or close to it and I took that probability favoring a win. But the fluke happened anyway.
the sportsbooks love folks like you.. you keep them in business. Hope you change your thinking
That baseball and the Astros have been super streaky ever since they stopped cheating. And times it'a like they can't be best, scoring 12 runs a game and you're thinking, "Shit, they didn't even need to cheat!" Then they'll go through stretches where they look extremely mediocre to bad even and you're thinking, "See, the only reason they were winning is because they were cheating." I'm an A's fan so i've followed this team pretty closely since they joined the AL west. I wanted the Brew Crew but I think Houston is further west.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
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That baseball and the Astros have been super streaky ever since they stopped cheating. And times it'a like they can't be best, scoring 12 runs a game and you're thinking, "Shit, they didn't even need to cheat!" Then they'll go through stretches where they look extremely mediocre to bad even and you're thinking, "See, the only reason they were winning is because they were cheating." I'm an A's fan so i've followed this team pretty closely since they joined the AL west. I wanted the Brew Crew but I think Houston is further west.
Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits.
0
@fubah2
Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits.
@umgmu youre talking about the hottest team in mlb vs sorriest team in mlb. you really cant think the linesman are trying to pull a reverse uno card by making the line so high as -300 to trick the bettors lol if they truly felt orioles would win back to bavk they wouldve made the line astros -145 and get all the astros backers in lol
Exactly.
Vegas doesn't know which team will win and neither do we.
We play the probabilities of a given occurance.
Even at 20 to 1 odds, occasionally that "one" does happen
4
Quote Originally Posted by mikebreezyy:
@umgmu youre talking about the hottest team in mlb vs sorriest team in mlb. you really cant think the linesman are trying to pull a reverse uno card by making the line so high as -300 to trick the bettors lol if they truly felt orioles would win back to bavk they wouldve made the line astros -145 and get all the astros backers in lol
Exactly.
Vegas doesn't know which team will win and neither do we.
We play the probabilities of a given occurance.
Even at 20 to 1 odds, occasionally that "one" does happen
@fubah2 Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits.
Well since I am NOT doing that, nor professing that, it's a moot point.
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Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:
@fubah2 Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits.
Well since I am NOT doing that, nor professing that, it's a moot point.
@fubah2 Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits.
This. Betting high favs is fine in tennis. Baseball is far too erratic. Sometimes your bats go cold. Sometimes your ace gets rocked. A lot happens over the course of 162 games. I'm of the believe that there's never value on a -250 or pricier team. Even at the -200 range i'm looking at looking for value on a FG of F5 RL. If the RL doesn't look like the right call, i'm laying off. I know the Astros are the Astros but anyone who follows the AL west knows they should never be -300. No team ever should.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
0
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:
@fubah2 Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits.
This. Betting high favs is fine in tennis. Baseball is far too erratic. Sometimes your bats go cold. Sometimes your ace gets rocked. A lot happens over the course of 162 games. I'm of the believe that there's never value on a -250 or pricier team. Even at the -200 range i'm looking at looking for value on a FG of F5 RL. If the RL doesn't look like the right call, i'm laying off. I know the Astros are the Astros but anyone who follows the AL west knows they should never be -300. No team ever should.
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: @fubah2 Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits. Well since I am NOT doing that, nor professing that, it's a moot point.
You saw value in a play and you took a crack. That's what we do. You'll come back for what's yours tomorrow.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: @fubah2 Good luck betting high favs on the regular...you'll regress to the mean real quickly as you keep saying is bound to happen...you should cash out some profits. Well since I am NOT doing that, nor professing that, it's a moot point.
You saw value in a play and you took a crack. That's what we do. You'll come back for what's yours tomorrow.
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