It's just hard to predict this stuff and so easy in hindsight. They just played Baltimore last week and beat them by a combined 26-3. And Urquidy is a money making machine, 8 of his last 9 starts before this game the Astros covered the RL. Just a rough go for the bullpen. But the line made sense, Houston with Urquirdy and Grienke on the mound with their lineup going against bum Orioles pitching should be a slaughter. I have no clue what the Astros problem is.
10
It's just hard to predict this stuff and so easy in hindsight. They just played Baltimore last week and beat them by a combined 26-3. And Urquidy is a money making machine, 8 of his last 9 starts before this game the Astros covered the RL. Just a rough go for the bullpen. But the line made sense, Houston with Urquirdy and Grienke on the mound with their lineup going against bum Orioles pitching should be a slaughter. I have no clue what the Astros problem is.
Fubah, I never comment on any of this stuff; however, you're doing a hell of a job and you are definitely one of the best baseball handicappers I've seen on here. As much as I appreciate your statistical acumen, most regressions to the mean occur because of outliers, or inputs so far from the expected that they most likely wouldn't even be included in the overall calculation; in fact, data so out of the ordinary it's more than two standard deviations to the left or right of the midline.
You may be on a bit of a heater, but I think you're this good, so don't short sell yourself. Also, every game is independent as far as probability goes; just because you hit nine in a row doesn't mean you're anymore or less likely to hit or miss the next play.
This is known as essentially the reverse the hot hand fallacy in behavioral economics.
Best wishes, and keep kicking ass
Cory
12
Fubah, I never comment on any of this stuff; however, you're doing a hell of a job and you are definitely one of the best baseball handicappers I've seen on here. As much as I appreciate your statistical acumen, most regressions to the mean occur because of outliers, or inputs so far from the expected that they most likely wouldn't even be included in the overall calculation; in fact, data so out of the ordinary it's more than two standard deviations to the left or right of the midline.
You may be on a bit of a heater, but I think you're this good, so don't short sell yourself. Also, every game is independent as far as probability goes; just because you hit nine in a row doesn't mean you're anymore or less likely to hit or miss the next play.
This is known as essentially the reverse the hot hand fallacy in behavioral economics.
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