If you want to cry about direct quotes, what I said was comparing the probability of a die roll to the probability of a sports outcome is completely asinine. The probability of a die roll is based on one factor that is known to all, the number of sides. It isn't affected by any extraneous factors. It isn't affected by what the public thinks. Or by how much action is placed on either number. Probability in sporting event outcomes are based on a number of extraneous factors. Answer me this, guru, since you know so much and I so little. On what metrics did you base said "probability" because it sounds like you based it on the notion that "What are the odds that the best team loses to the worst team twice in a row as a -300 fav?" And i'm sorry to break it to you but that's not how probability works.
The messes up thing is I didn't even come into this thread to talk shit or critique your pick. As a AL west homer, I was only here to talk about how finicky AL west teams are but you are so combative that if you're not coddled, you erupt and make things personal. How many times have called me some form of drug addict? When has it ever been on topic? I really don't give a damn. I have a happy and fulfilled life. I'm secure in who I am and the reason I share those things is to add a human element. It's not bragging. It's saying, "Hey, we all have flaws." And like I said, I snort coke socially. Haven't in over a year I'm not an addict like that. What if I was though. What if it was a daily struggle? One that ruined my life. And you throw it in my face at every chance you get simply because we have an disagreement. You act like a child. If you have a wife, if you have children, I pity them. Like a said, don't ever call me son. Or sun. My father is a great man. He doesn't become vindictive, downright nasty, simply because someone disagrees with him. You do. And you can't deny it because there's hundreds of pages on this website of you doing just that. Good luck in your life. I'll do better at avoiding your threads.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
0
@fubah2
If you want to cry about direct quotes, what I said was comparing the probability of a die roll to the probability of a sports outcome is completely asinine. The probability of a die roll is based on one factor that is known to all, the number of sides. It isn't affected by any extraneous factors. It isn't affected by what the public thinks. Or by how much action is placed on either number. Probability in sporting event outcomes are based on a number of extraneous factors. Answer me this, guru, since you know so much and I so little. On what metrics did you base said "probability" because it sounds like you based it on the notion that "What are the odds that the best team loses to the worst team twice in a row as a -300 fav?" And i'm sorry to break it to you but that's not how probability works.
The messes up thing is I didn't even come into this thread to talk shit or critique your pick. As a AL west homer, I was only here to talk about how finicky AL west teams are but you are so combative that if you're not coddled, you erupt and make things personal. How many times have called me some form of drug addict? When has it ever been on topic? I really don't give a damn. I have a happy and fulfilled life. I'm secure in who I am and the reason I share those things is to add a human element. It's not bragging. It's saying, "Hey, we all have flaws." And like I said, I snort coke socially. Haven't in over a year I'm not an addict like that. What if I was though. What if it was a daily struggle? One that ruined my life. And you throw it in my face at every chance you get simply because we have an disagreement. You act like a child. If you have a wife, if you have children, I pity them. Like a said, don't ever call me son. Or sun. My father is a great man. He doesn't become vindictive, downright nasty, simply because someone disagrees with him. You do. And you can't deny it because there's hundreds of pages on this website of you doing just that. Good luck in your life. I'll do better at avoiding your threads.
Ahh good.... You proved my point not only that you are indeed a JERK but your logic is that of an immature 4th grader, because you DELIBERATELY LEFT OUT THE SENTENCE IN MY POST #29 THAT CLEARLY SHOWS WHAT I WAS SPECIFICALLY REFERRING TO.
Thanks for leaving out the key top line and illustrating to everyone here what YOU are!
And I quote my post which you reference above, except I include the line YOU deliberately ommitted:
"Experienced gamblers understand probability.
In many ways it's like the roll of a single die (dice)
The odds that any given roll will come up 6 is 5 to 1 against.
There's an 83% chance it WON'T come up 6."
There. See folks? I am clearly referring to the top line, about probabilityt, and illustrating it with an example using dice.
Stu says I am comparing dice to baseball.
Go get some sleep kid. You need it more than I do
And like an immature teen he is wasting more time HERE still trying to twist it around to make it appear as if he WASN'T criticizing what I was writing about (probability), though CLEARLY he was. He even removed the key line (above) that PROVES what I was talking about then criticized his madeup version.....a version of the classic "strawman fallacy"
Stumpy talks the talk. Believe his CRAP if you want to, that's OK by me. To each his own.
But on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum the proof is in the pudding. Where is your winning record, if you have one!
Or is he all talk and a typical post-game critic/handicapper of OTHER'S picks (or just talking the talk about baseball in general) but he *REFUSES* to post picks himself.
This is the bottom line HERE, on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum.
Sure we all go on winning streaks and then losing streaks.
But at least we aren't COWARDS! We post them! We don't just "talk the talk" about baseball!
Where are Stu's?????
5
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Ahh good.... You proved my point not only that you are indeed a JERK but your logic is that of an immature 4th grader, because you DELIBERATELY LEFT OUT THE SENTENCE IN MY POST #29 THAT CLEARLY SHOWS WHAT I WAS SPECIFICALLY REFERRING TO.
Thanks for leaving out the key top line and illustrating to everyone here what YOU are!
And I quote my post which you reference above, except I include the line YOU deliberately ommitted:
"Experienced gamblers understand probability.
In many ways it's like the roll of a single die (dice)
The odds that any given roll will come up 6 is 5 to 1 against.
There's an 83% chance it WON'T come up 6."
There. See folks? I am clearly referring to the top line, about probabilityt, and illustrating it with an example using dice.
Stu says I am comparing dice to baseball.
Go get some sleep kid. You need it more than I do
And like an immature teen he is wasting more time HERE still trying to twist it around to make it appear as if he WASN'T criticizing what I was writing about (probability), though CLEARLY he was. He even removed the key line (above) that PROVES what I was talking about then criticized his madeup version.....a version of the classic "strawman fallacy"
Stumpy talks the talk. Believe his CRAP if you want to, that's OK by me. To each his own.
But on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum the proof is in the pudding. Where is your winning record, if you have one!
Or is he all talk and a typical post-game critic/handicapper of OTHER'S picks (or just talking the talk about baseball in general) but he *REFUSES* to post picks himself.
This is the bottom line HERE, on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum.
Sure we all go on winning streaks and then losing streaks.
But at least we aren't COWARDS! We post them! We don't just "talk the talk" about baseball!
Stumpy talks the talk. Believe his CRAP if you want to, that's OK by me. To each his own.
But on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum the proof is in the pudding. Where is your winning record, to support you know what you are pontificating about, if you have one?!
Or is he all talk and a typical post-game critic/handicapper of OTHER'S picks (or just talking the talk about baseball in general) but he *REFUSES* to post picks himself because he's a COWARD!!!
This is the bottom line HERE, on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum.
Sure we all go on winning streaks and then losing streaks.
But at least we aren't COWARDS! We post them! We don't just "talk the talk" about baseball!
Where are Stu's?????
8
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:
Stumpy talks the talk. Believe his CRAP if you want to, that's OK by me. To each his own.
But on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum the proof is in the pudding. Where is your winning record, to support you know what you are pontificating about, if you have one?!
Or is he all talk and a typical post-game critic/handicapper of OTHER'S picks (or just talking the talk about baseball in general) but he *REFUSES* to post picks himself because he's a COWARD!!!
This is the bottom line HERE, on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum.
Sure we all go on winning streaks and then losing streaks.
But at least we aren't COWARDS! We post them! We don't just "talk the talk" about baseball!
Or is stumptownstu all talk and a typical post-game critic/handicapper of OTHER'S picks (or just talking the talk about baseball in general) but he *REFUSES* to post picks himself because he's a COWARD!!!
This is the bottom line HERE, on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum.
Sure we all go on winning streaks and then losing streaks.
But at least we aren't COWARDS! We post them! We don't just "talk the talk" about baseball!
Where are Stu's?????
7
Or is stumptownstu all talk and a typical post-game critic/handicapper of OTHER'S picks (or just talking the talk about baseball in general) but he *REFUSES* to post picks himself because he's a COWARD!!!
This is the bottom line HERE, on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum.
Sure we all go on winning streaks and then losing streaks.
But at least we aren't COWARDS! We post them! We don't just "talk the talk" about baseball!
I'm starting to believe you might actually be a woman. Maybe circ was right. All I said was comparing dice probability and sports probability is asinine and you have PMS'd for a page and half. You literally told me to go do heroin. I'm not crying. Was that some racial shit? I don't even care.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
0
I'm starting to believe you might actually be a woman. Maybe circ was right. All I said was comparing dice probability and sports probability is asinine and you have PMS'd for a page and half. You literally told me to go do heroin. I'm not crying. Was that some racial shit? I don't even care.
I just saw the first post where you said you dropped 2K on this madness. Maybe that's the reason for the meltdown. Is that outside of your normal wager? BOL tomorrow. I'll post a few picks you can tail or fade to help get it back. At least you don't have a wife to answer too. Nobody that acts like this is married. I've spent to much time here instead of looking into overnight tennis and tomorrow's MLB. I'll have a few picks for you by morning but I do have a wife and she probably thinks i'm texting a skank at 1am. So I must bid you adieu. Good luck on your future picks and your anger management, which i'll assume you struggle with. I'll have a few picks for you tomorrow.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
0
I just saw the first post where you said you dropped 2K on this madness. Maybe that's the reason for the meltdown. Is that outside of your normal wager? BOL tomorrow. I'll post a few picks you can tail or fade to help get it back. At least you don't have a wife to answer too. Nobody that acts like this is married. I've spent to much time here instead of looking into overnight tennis and tomorrow's MLB. I'll have a few picks for you by morning but I do have a wife and she probably thinks i'm texting a skank at 1am. So I must bid you adieu. Good luck on your future picks and your anger management, which i'll assume you struggle with. I'll have a few picks for you tomorrow.
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu: I'm starting to believe you might actually be a woman. heroin. I'm not crying. Was that some racial shit? I don't even care. stu's losing it And yet i don't feel sorry for the coward.
What part am I losing it about, the part when you told me to go do heroin or the part where you're a woman? I know you're not a woman. Maybe a homosexual man. A lonely, homosexual man. BOL in the future. I'll have some MLB picks for you tomorrow. Tail or fade.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu: I'm starting to believe you might actually be a woman. heroin. I'm not crying. Was that some racial shit? I don't even care. stu's losing it And yet i don't feel sorry for the coward.
What part am I losing it about, the part when you told me to go do heroin or the part where you're a woman? I know you're not a woman. Maybe a homosexual man. A lonely, homosexual man. BOL in the future. I'll have some MLB picks for you tomorrow. Tail or fade.
@umgmu youre talking about the hottest team in mlb vs sorriest team in mlb. you really cant think the linesman are trying to pull a reverse uno card by making the line so high as -300 to trick the bettors lol if they truly felt orioles would win back to bavk they wouldve made the line astros -145 and get all the astros backers in lol
Very good point. lower Value, but would have gotten 100X more money on Astros
Bet with your wallet,not your heart
4
Quote Originally Posted by mikebreezyy:
@umgmu youre talking about the hottest team in mlb vs sorriest team in mlb. you really cant think the linesman are trying to pull a reverse uno card by making the line so high as -300 to trick the bettors lol if they truly felt orioles would win back to bavk they wouldve made the line astros -145 and get all the astros backers in lol
Very good point. lower Value, but would have gotten 100X more money on Astros
Greinke is an ace that is not having an "ace" season. OK, line too high.
Urquidy you are way off on. He was 8-5 for quality starts going into last night and had outpitched his opposing starter to the tune of 10-5. He left due to shoulder discomfort in the second inning. Barring that you may have an entirely different game, noone knows, but priced at -300, with the Astros offense behind him, versus a bullpen starter for a terrible team is not out of the question. All teams go through phases (luck and otherwise) and if you don't face that it is your own fault. With an already stressed out bullpen Urquidy was crucial to the Astros effort but; there is no controlling injury. In fact, if you had considered the bullpen situation you could have played First 5 innings and come away with a push, even with the injury. The Orioles are a terrible team because they don't have any pitching above the high school level, but they can hit, and are dangerous versus a weakened bullpen. Although you grant Urquidy no credit, he and his injury was a key factor in that game.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
11
Greinke is an ace that is not having an "ace" season. OK, line too high.
Urquidy you are way off on. He was 8-5 for quality starts going into last night and had outpitched his opposing starter to the tune of 10-5. He left due to shoulder discomfort in the second inning. Barring that you may have an entirely different game, noone knows, but priced at -300, with the Astros offense behind him, versus a bullpen starter for a terrible team is not out of the question. All teams go through phases (luck and otherwise) and if you don't face that it is your own fault. With an already stressed out bullpen Urquidy was crucial to the Astros effort but; there is no controlling injury. In fact, if you had considered the bullpen situation you could have played First 5 innings and come away with a push, even with the injury. The Orioles are a terrible team because they don't have any pitching above the high school level, but they can hit, and are dangerous versus a weakened bullpen. Although you grant Urquidy no credit, he and his injury was a key factor in that game.
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: -300 favs are rarely easy...vegas knew it when it set the line...you unfortunately fell for the bait. Get em wed I fell for no "bait" I saw a one in 20 probability of losing a second consecutive night to the WORST tema in the league with arguably the WORST stats or close to it and I took that probability favoring a win. But the fluke happened anyway.
13-3 isn't a fluke, it's a complete butt kicking.
You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: -300 favs are rarely easy...vegas knew it when it set the line...you unfortunately fell for the bait. Get em wed I fell for no "bait" I saw a one in 20 probability of losing a second consecutive night to the WORST tema in the league with arguably the WORST stats or close to it and I took that probability favoring a win. But the fluke happened anyway.
No dog in this hunt , but I can tell you this much. Betting $300 favorites is like pulling your dick out in a whorehouse. It's not a matter of what's gonna happen , it'd just a matter of how long it'll take. And I did post my picks.
pollockanesian
0
No dog in this hunt , but I can tell you this much. Betting $300 favorites is like pulling your dick out in a whorehouse. It's not a matter of what's gonna happen , it'd just a matter of how long it'll take. And I did post my picks.
The Astros are just 18-18 (-13U) when facing teams with a losing record. No reason to ever bet Houston with the big lines vs losing teams. Its not profitable
0
The Astros are just 18-18 (-13U) when facing teams with a losing record. No reason to ever bet Houston with the big lines vs losing teams. Its not profitable
All good points. Don't let fubah hear that though. He'll go on Scal like rant because he's never wrong. It's everyone/everything else's fault. The messed up part isI didn't come in his thread to bash him or critique his pick, nor his capping style. I simply came to talk about how finicky and inconsistent AL west teams are, including my home team. I know to fubah this place is just for posting picks, maybe he needs it to feel good about himself, but I actually like talking sports. It was bad timing. I blame myself. If a guy drops two grand on a -300 team, he's gonna be testy. I should've realized this, and realized fubah has a stick up his ass for me, and just said "tough break." Or better yet, said nothing. Hindsight. Yet, for the record, you will never find a post of mines giving a guy shit about a loss. I feel it's bad gambler etiquette. Fubah is a powder keg though. He acts all nice and peaceful but he loses it and gets downright nasty. The dude literally told me to go do heroin. Now I might dabble in the sugar booger, but i've never touched opioids. Is what it is. I questioned his sexuality, which I regret. It's not my place to question. Not my story to tell. And using homosexuality as an insult, even if I sincerely believe it to be the case, is off brand for me. Can't take it back but it was just wrong and I knew it when I did it. It was late though and I was just over his shit. He is so full of vitriol, then he plays the victim. He is always the first one to sling insults. And, like I said, he has a hair up his ass for me. It is what it is.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
1
@KeyElement
@thehuntman
@Unclebenelli
@cheeser
@FormerAthlete
All good points. Don't let fubah hear that though. He'll go on Scal like rant because he's never wrong. It's everyone/everything else's fault. The messed up part isI didn't come in his thread to bash him or critique his pick, nor his capping style. I simply came to talk about how finicky and inconsistent AL west teams are, including my home team. I know to fubah this place is just for posting picks, maybe he needs it to feel good about himself, but I actually like talking sports. It was bad timing. I blame myself. If a guy drops two grand on a -300 team, he's gonna be testy. I should've realized this, and realized fubah has a stick up his ass for me, and just said "tough break." Or better yet, said nothing. Hindsight. Yet, for the record, you will never find a post of mines giving a guy shit about a loss. I feel it's bad gambler etiquette. Fubah is a powder keg though. He acts all nice and peaceful but he loses it and gets downright nasty. The dude literally told me to go do heroin. Now I might dabble in the sugar booger, but i've never touched opioids. Is what it is. I questioned his sexuality, which I regret. It's not my place to question. Not my story to tell. And using homosexuality as an insult, even if I sincerely believe it to be the case, is off brand for me. Can't take it back but it was just wrong and I knew it when I did it. It was late though and I was just over his shit. He is so full of vitriol, then he plays the victim. He is always the first one to sling insults. And, like I said, he has a hair up his ass for me. It is what it is.
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This is the bottom line HERE, on a SPORTS-GAMBLING forum.
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