Never saw that before in all my years

A’s fan?? man wth happened to them today 

i had them f5 -.5 and fg -1.5

they really couldnt sh1t on foltwentyz or whatever his name is?? jesus

Faulty logic.

Bettting EVERY SINGLE HEAVY regardless the circumstance is stupid

Selectively betting certain heavy favs when I find the probabilities are in my favor is not.

Quite the opposite.  It is stupid to pass automatically on all -200 favs -- simply because they are -200 favs.

And I have the posted record to prove it.

@fubah2

 I wasn't sayiny you should pass on all -200 favs, I play them at times myself, but you should always pass on -300 favs. That's insane.

Now you're making logical sense.

Experienced gamblers understand probability.

In many ways it's like the roll of a single die (dice)

The odds that any given roll will come up 6   is 5 to 1  against.

There's an 83% chance it WON'T come up 6.

If the posted odds we have to pay are -300 to NOT  come up 6 on a single roll, I'll grab that puppy every freakn time, and so would any smart capper -- despite the fact that the -300 pricetag is scary to some people.  Some people have an aversion (a bias or prejudice) against certain prices even when the odds are clearly in their favor over time.

NBow we go to another game where the pricetag is set at -650 to NOT turn up 6 on a single roll, then of course, the smart capper walks away.

He selectively plays the odds  -- with no bias to any dog or fav regardless the price. 

THE VALUE is determined by the assessed probability of a given occurance agains the pricetag,  NOT THE  PRICE TAG alone PER SE.

And from time to time when we roll tyhe dice, even though the odds are heavily in our favor, it will occasionally roll 6 and we lose.

C'est la vie.  That's probability working exactly as expected.

@mikebreezyy

The AL west is tricky when they play each other. I won a ton of Folty like 3 years ago, mostly as a dog i've got love for him.

@fubah2

 Comparing dice roll probability to baseball is complete asinine.

FALSE.   To automatically pass on all -300 is illogical.

To BET **EVERY** -300 game is insane!

To selectively bet a few is not.

I used to bet on Pedro Martinez occasionally at -400  and win.   That's when I calculated a 6 or 7 or more to one chance to win.

To say I was comparing baseball to dice roll is asinine.

I am talking about assessing value thru probability, sun.  Perhaps when you ghain enough experience and post a winning record that supports your theories then maybe you will understand probability and value.

Clearly, you do not yet.

Losers always wine and talk shit. I could never be your son. My dad's not a whiny ass loser. I post more winners than I do losers. And when I lose, I move on. I don't create cry baby threads.

Wow.    What a jerk!

So be it.   You chose to make it this way.  And that's the way it shall remain.

@fubah2

 Truth be told, I don't think you know much of shit about assigning probability and value to a baseball game. You thought this was a high probability play, that therefore warranted the high price, because, "What are the odds they lose to the worst team twice at -300?" Do you even understand how odds are set in sports? Do you think the oddsmakers are necessarily making a statement on the probability of an outcome? They're making a statement on the public's perception of the probability of an outcome. For someone so smug, you should really read a book or something. Try to figure this shit out. With teams extremely popular with the public, the Yankees, The Astros, the Dodgers, the Cowboys in football, you're never going to get a line very reflective of the actual probability of the outcome. Too much public perception baked in.

@StumpTownStu

 Excellent point, post 36

No, you chose to make it this way. It's always you. You insult people. You belittle. You make it personal. Then you flip it and try to play the victim. It's a pattern with you. I didn't come in this thread to kick dirt on a guy when he's down. My comments were based more on the finicky nature of AL west teams than on the price you paid. Everything is a personal attack to you though because you're so smug, that anything less than kissing your ass is perceived aggression. And you have a hair up your ass for me, simply because I am cordial with people you bicker with. I've got no beef with you though.

You're high on smack again I see.

As usual.

No, YOU chose to make it this way......as usual, with one back-handed INSULT after another.

So be it.     F O stu.

It's sports wagering 101. And i've been wagering on sports since the 4th grade and had learned this shit by junior high but it never fails that old timers, and i'm damn near 40, of a child by any stretch, but old timers always pull that, "Awww, youngster, you're just too young..." then proceed to spew diarrhea.

Well in YOUR case it applies, even on those days when you aren't high on the very smack you are so proud of.

I was capping before you were born.

And UNLIKE YOU, I post my picks here for all to see.  I am not a coward, like YOU.  Jerk

This is where it went off the rails. All I said was comparing the probability of outcome to a sporting event to a dice roll is asinine, which is true. Then you got all pouty donuts.

You post large ML favorites and track your record and not units. Get the fuck outta here with that noise. You keep making this shit personal. If that helps you sleep then so be it. I've got no beef with you. You can call me coward and jerk on a keyboard and talk about drug use all you want. Typical fubah.

And i've never done smack in my entire life.

No that is NOT "all you said"  and I quote exactly where YOUR INSULT took it off the rails:

And still no posted baseball record from stumpy to back up his claims.

It is YOU who should [quote stu]   "Get the fuck outta here with that noise."

And still no posted baseball record from stumpy to back up his claims.

It is YOU who should [quote stu]   "Get the fuck outta here with that noise."

"@fubah2

       Comparing dice roll probability to baseball is complete asinine."

Since I did no such thing, as my post prceeding it **PROVES** 

In many ways it's like the roll of a single die (dice)

Do you even read the shit you post? First you cried about me saying comparing these things was asinine. Said that was an insult when you literally called me a heroin addict because I snort blow socially and i'm candid about it. You act like i'm fucked up all the time. "You need to sober up." I haven't done blow in 14 months. I never do blow when i'm in Oregon with my family. Only in California. Then you denied doing what is right there in black and white.

All the time you spent looking through my posts, fucking loser, did you spend that same time looking through your winning record, with your -300 favs, to see if it's actually even a winning record? All you do is deflect with insults. All I said was comparing the probability of the roll of a die to the probability of the outcome of a sporting event, is completely asinine. There are no extraneous factors in assigning probability to the roll of a die. There's nothing but extraneous factors in sports, the largest of which is public perception, which is why one is almost always overpaying for teams like the Astros when they are large ML favs. This shit is going way over your head because you think you know everything but you don't know shit. Posting large ML favorites and having the audacity to brag.

Ahh good.... You proved my point not only that you are indeed a JERK but your logic is that of an immature 4th grader, because you DELIBERATELY LEFT OUT THE SENTENCE IN MY POST #29 THAT CLEARLY SHOWS WHAT I WAS SPECIFICALLY REFERRING TO.

Thanks for leaving out the key top line and illustrating to everyone here what YOU are!

And I quote my post which you reference above, except I include the line YOU deliberately ommitted:

        "Experienced gamblers understand probability.

          In many ways it's like the roll of a single die (dice)

          The odds that any given roll will come up 6 is 5 to 1 against.

          There's an 83% chance it WON'T come up 6."

There. See folks?  I am clearly referring to the top line, about probabilityt, and illustrating it with an example using dice.

Stu says I am comparing dice to baseball.

Go get some sleep kid.  You need it more than I do