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Reversal of Fortune for G & T

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Posted: #1

78-90, -$3,114.57 (-7.02 “units”) Regular Season closed 9/30/19

*Reds win / Dodgers loss credited to regular season totals*

10/1 to 10/17/2019 Post Season

4-2, +$471.61

10/17

Full Game

$230 Astros +122, Greinke/Tanaka

BOL

8/08/19 Pending $300 World Series Champion, Astros +225, Action

7/09/19 Pending $300 World Series Champion, Dodgers +275, Action (Lost)

3/28/19 Completed: $300.00 Reds (even) UNDER 78.5 total wins (WIN – 75, +300, regular season win)

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

78-90, -$3,114.57 (-7.02 “units”) Regular Season closed 9/30/19 *Reds win / Dodgers loss credited to regular season totals* 10/1 to 10/17/2019 Post Season 4-2, +$471.61 10/17 Full Game $230 Astros +122, Greinke/Tanaka BOL 8/08/19 Pending $300 World Series Champion, Astros +225, Action 7/09/19 Pending $300 World Series Champion, Dodgers +275, Action (Lost) 3/28/19 Completed: $300.00 Reds (even) UNDER 78.5 total wins (WIN – 75, +300, regular season win)


 

Any thoughts on the total? Tanaka has not pitched this well in four consecutive starts all year, so I presume you think you he gets hit tonight?

 
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Posted: #3
Good luck Key.
 
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Posted: #4
Agree Houston and I taking a chance wind in our favor for the over
 
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Posted: #5
GL Key. 

I would prefer to see a Nationals / Astros WS. 
And it has absolutely nothing to do with my hatred of the Yankees and their pompous azz fans.  Strictly business.

FWIW I am leaning Under 8.5
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #6
Steady winds at 18 mph out to right center with gusts to 40 mph........is that correct?  Just heard on one of the ESPN's
 
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The wind could be a factor, of course. It does not effect my choice of side, buy whether or not it effects the total is another matter. If none of the pitchers elevates the ball the wind may not matter in the least. Both starters have high GB-FB ratios and if you don't get it up, it probably does not go out. Earlier in the day I thought it odd that the total was rising, to 8.5 and BetOnline went to 9, and most of the online books have come up to that, but the Yankees team total stayed at 3.5. I don't know where it is now, but if the home team is still at 3.5 it would be obvious bettors like the under. I think I tend to as well. Playoff baseball is much tougher than that home run derby we watch all season.
 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #8

this is a classic wise play avoiding the team that "has to win" garbage...especially with a Champion on the other side playing with house money...

 

peace_5

 
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Posted: #9
Yanks are 135 -100....TT  3,5  ...would make Houston 5.....8.5  total...
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

this is a classic wise play avoiding the team that "has to win" garbage...especially with a Champion on the other side playing with house money...

 

peace_5

I've never bought he "must win" theory either. Every team ever eliminated from the playoffs was in a "must win" situation on the day they were eliminated. And how do you apply that theory when a 5 game series is tied 2-2, or a 7 game series 3-3? The team that wins did not do it because of that, as their opponent was in the same position, tit-for-tat. After their initial home loss,the Cardinals were in a "must win" situation 3 straight games; didn't make any difference. 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #11

Zack has been shaky his last few starts.

 
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Posted: #12

/

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

The wind could be a factor, of course. It does not effect my choice of side, buy whether or not it effects the total is another matter. If none of the pitchers elevates the ball the wind may not matter in the least. Both starters have high GB-FB ratios and if you don't get it up, it probably does not go out. Earlier in the day I thought it odd that the total was rising, to 8.5 and BetOnline went to 9, and most of the online books have come up to that, but the Yankees team total stayed at 3.5. I don't know where it is now, but if the home team is still at 3.5 it would be obvious bettors like the under. I think I tend to as well. Playoff baseball is much tougher than that home run derby we watch all season.
It’s not the same ball, Key. Google it. Even the players are aware of it....

 
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Posted: #13
Log, we have been over that a thousand times and we all know it; but it is what it is and we are stuck with it. Moot point.
.
The over is still alive but guys that are scared should be. Only two homers, both to left. Wind effect? 0, nada, zilch.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #14

I think you missed my point. This playoff ball is not the regular season ball.

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by LogCottage:

I think you missed my point. This playoff ball is not the regular season ball.

Agreed, Home run derby is over, pitching matters
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #16

Imagine what the regular season BA’s would be using this playoff ball....

 
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Posted: #17
At least ole’ Key here new what time it was! Congrats to us!! 
 
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Posted: #18

This was going to be my only bet on the Yankees.  Gasp IT WILL BE MY ONLY BET ON THE YANKEES THIS SERIES

 
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Posted: #19
I expect the Astros to go for the throat - Verlander - Cole next 2. That would not only wrap up this series but give them as much rest as possible before the Nats come to town.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I expect the Astros to go for the throat - Verlander - Cole next 2. That would not only wrap up this series but give them as much rest as possible before the Nats come to town.

Nice win.

No SHOT!

Cole is not pitching on SAT on short rest.  They will go JV, XXX, Cole over next 3 days.


 
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Posted: #22

Thanks Key!

Enjoy the game and the weekend!

 
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Posted: #23
As Key said.. turn out the lights the party’s over. 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:


Nice win.

No SHOT!

Cole is not pitching on SAT on short rest.  They will go JV, XXX, Cole over next 3 days.


How much baseball (or any competitive sport) tournament management history do you have? Elimination tournaments are not a matter of "we can come back later". You go for the throat and the win as quickly and powerfully as possible. If you are up 10-0 in the top of the ninth you try to score another 10. Ask no quarter - give no quarter. ADVANCING is THE ONLY CRITERIA. 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
 
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Posted: #25

Always enjoy your posts.  Going for the throat meaning pitch your best pitchers and rest no one who doesn’t need it is what your saying right?   Mental state of going for the throat is no different than mental state of must win.  Meaningless outside of pregame talks the night before the game.   
good win last evening and I don’t post much but enjoy seeing you win

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