SITUATIONAL PLAYS TODAY

To pull back my stat curtain a bit here on Run Lines, you need to break it down even further than just overall teams run line wins. You're missing a key stat on the run line selections which is that when a team total sits at 5.5 and the ML is -200 or more  that favored team in that situation has won 77% of the time by 2 or more runs for the entire season to date.  Don't overthink the teams.

ALL my situational plays have reasoning and merit and this is a year long thing.  If these YTD 's I post and update daily can remain at 63-70% win percentage at the end of the season, THEN THAT IS MY KIND OF SUCCESS.

Bill Bob Sink - If your going to post my records every day be sure to go back to my first thread so you are accurate.  It's a yearlong tracking thing, not just daily.  If  my goal is 63-70% correct on each situational matchup trend then I will be wrong 30-37% of the time.  Sometimes comes in bunches, sometimes not. Be sure to post apologizes in October.

Todays Situational Matchups:

STL OVR 4.5 RUNS  (21-11 Ytd Situational Matchup)

TEX RL -1.5 -105  (16-6 Ytd Situational Matchup)

TEX OVR 5.5 RUNS (7-2 Ytd Situational Matchup)

BTW Billy Bob, Only joined covers in May and season started in April so my stats begin from April dunce.  Also, if I'm going to be so shitty this season then fade every game and you should be loaded come October, right? 

I will play my White Sox to get the OVER 4, TX TT OVER 5.5, and MIL OVER 4.

GL buddy..

Just keep tracking thru October Billy Bob.  You should track my WNBA as well.  If you want to start since I joined in May that's fine (inaccurate, but fine).  Record at the end of the year will speak for itself.  Gonna keep posting YTD the same way I have since start of the season though to give readers the knowledge of how that particular situation is playing out.  You can track overall any way you want way to help guide everyone if need be.

Remember dunce, posting these to help others win and let them analyze those plays on their own as well, nothing gained on my end. 

Billy, no need to bash.  If you have nothing nice to say for someone who's been doing damn good, then go post elsewhere.  Don't be a little child...

Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:



Roughly 28-30% of games end on one run.

The fact that you would never lay the 1.5 run line is insane. Its gives you so much value because games arent won by 1 run enough to justify taking the ML.

You are banking on something that happens 28-30% of the time, I will bet on something that happens 70-72% of the time.

Most people hate being enlightened to this, so I dont expect much of a positive response.

You are corrrrrect SIR

Classic!

And to Billy Bob's buddy, I'll be here all Year.  Billy Bob You and your buddies posting tactics are 4th rate at best. Just keep tracking.