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Sorry but I have to post this...Juiced Ball argument continued 2018

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Legend
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Posted: #1
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/

For all the naysayers in years past, here's scientific proof.

Please read the whole article before commenting.

 
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Posted: #2
OK, I read the entire article and I stand behind what I have been saying for a long, long time. The ball has been cross-bred with a Mexican jumping bean, jackrabbit or kangaroo. 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
^ Now that's a conspiracy theory that must be investigated asap.

I'll see what I can find
 
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Posted: #4
Excellent article
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5

i love you all

 
Legend
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Posted: #6

"Combine all these factors together — a lighter, more compact baseball with tighter seams and more bounce — and the ball could fly as much as 8.6 feet farther. According to Nathan’s calculations, this would lead to a more than 25 percent increase in the number of home runs"

While there might be very minor differences in ball construction I have a problem believing that an extra 8.6 feet distance correlates to a whopping 25% more total Home Runs.  And I seriously don't think the Owners want to intentionally inflate the performance numbers of the Players which would drive Player salary contracts even more ridiculously higher.

How about today's Players are just plain bigger and faster and therefore generate more bat speed?  There is no "Conspiracy" in my mind.

Good article. 
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
I think it's a combo. They are bigger and stronger, and they use more launch angle.

But the ball did change after the 2015 all star break. This is a fact now. The MLB won't ever admit it.

If you want I can dig up LogCottage's "If it weren't for HR's" thread from last year. There's at least 8 pages of heated arguments there

 
Legend
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Posted: #8

It is a combo.  A culmination of many factors.  A perfect storm. 

Like you said, the launch angle for example.  Batting Mechanics are constantly being improved upon in every area.  Not a season goes by without some new innovations.  That's just the nature of the game of Baseball.  It's always improving. 


~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/For all the naysayers in years past, here's scientific proof.Please read the whole article before commenting.
If you cant fightem join them. All this means is bet more overs and dogs on the runline.

 
Legend
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Posted: #10
"With the Class AAA level switching to the same baseball as used in Major League Baseball, there has been a massive uptick in offense and homers in the first six weeks of the season."

Ryan Divish, Seattle Times staff reporter
 
Legend
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

OK, I read the entire article and I stand behind what I have been saying for a long, long time. The ball has been cross-bred with a Mexican jumping bean, jackrabbit or kangaroo.

 

new_laughing1

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

"With the Class AAA level switching to the same baseball as used in Major League Baseball, there has been a massive uptick in offense and homers in the first six weeks of the season."Ryan Divish, Seattle Times staff reporter

 

I have changed my stance completely from the original thread and now believe they are juiced.

 

The bigger, faster, stronger argument just doesn't happen in one year to explain the sharp increase in minor league homers.

 

OTOH...next year, MLB wants shorter games and with MORE offense because of fly balls I can't see how juiced balls could shorten games. Half-innings can last a half hour because of deep fly balls are now homers.

 

It's funny to hear the announcer say...Joe Schmo is 2 for 2 ____this_____ inning...

 
Legend
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Posted: #13
Thats OK by me. I tend to have a bias for betting Overs anyway.

  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #14

They’re hitting a Titleist. If it wasn’t for homeruns, there would be no runs at all.....

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:


It is a combo.  A culmination of many factors.  A perfect storm. 

Like you said, the launch angle for example.  Batting Mechanics are constantly being improved upon in every area.  Not a season goes by without some new innovations.  That's just the nature of the game of Baseball.  It's always improving. 



This one can be argued old buddy Goose.

2018 was the first year that there were more strikeouts than hits. Let that sink in. This year we are on pace to do it again with ease. 11812 hits, 12524 strikeouts.

Another good one I heard yesterday, in 1984 I believe the Orioles pitching staff gave up 80 HR's the entire year. This years staff has given up 96, and it's only May 22
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
sac , When you get a second ,Google Sports Analytics Conference
MIT Sloan , and look at their Speakers List for their conference on
March 1,2 , 2019. It will give you some idea of how far reaching
into Sports and Sports Betting the technology is to date and where
it is going in the future.

I wrote about this on the CFB forum in 2017 cautioning bettors that
we will have to up our game at Capping sports in the future if we
are to be successful at this . Which is why I invested in the study
of Sports analytics back in 2012 and developed the method I
currently use to determine my win probability on a CFB wager at
any given pointspread. I use it to determine value and manage
risk on any wager I make.

I keep saying it's Coming , and coming fast. Bookmakers use of
analytics is on the increase as well and Jay is on panel also,

Multiply your data point on Baltimore HR's given up by tens of
thousands points which are available to process into a predictor.

The future of Sports Performance is changing , and also Books
efficiency by the use of wagering analytics as well.

It's up to us to keep up with it.

sac  

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

sac , When you get a second ,Google Sports Analytics Conference
MIT Sloan , and look at their Speakers List for their conference on
March 1,2 , 2019. It will give you some idea of how far reaching
into Sports and Sports Betting the technology is to date and where
it is going in the future.

I wrote about this on the CFB forum in 2017 cautioning bettors that
we will have to up our game at Capping sports in the future if we
are to be successful at this . Which is why I invested in the study
of Sports analytics back in 2012 and developed the method I
currently use to determine my win probability on a CFB wager at
any given pointspread. I use it to determine value and manage
risk on any wager I make.

I keep saying it's Coming , and coming fast. Bookmakers use of
analytics is on the increase as well and Jay is on panel also,

Multiply your data point on Baltimore HR's given up by tens of
thousands points which are available to process into a predictor.

The future of Sports Performance is changing , and also Books
efficiency by the use of wagering analytics as well.

It's up to us to keep up with it.

sac  





The only thing remaining to solve for Owners and Bookmakers is
processing the tremendous volumes of data being accumulated ,
validate it and determine its value as a predictor , then write the
algos and reap the returns.

Hopefully Bettors will have greater access to this information in the
future as well to facilitate sound and more accurate capping decisions.

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #18
@wiseguy,

What I'm seeing in the new analytic world of sports is...

1. Worse play on the field/court in general. Especially the small fundamental nuances.

2. Less defense.

3. Rules enforcement less a priority.  This goes mostly for the NBA.

4.. Way to much emphasis on how to analyze results/stats etc...even though they are getting really good at it. 

However, how many different ways can a PB&J sandwich be described to someone? In the end, it's just peanut butter, bread and jelly.

I think we will be fine in how we bet on this product no matter how many ways it's analyzed and explained to us. Do you have to stick your head up a cow's a s s to rate the quality of the steak? Or do you take the butcher's word for it?

Best of Luck 

*if anyone wants to add any more cheesy cliche's please do*
 
Legend
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Posted: #19
sac , Best of Luck to you as well  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
All-Star
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Posted: #20
you can do one of two things:

1. bet overs 
2. only post about how shittty the mlb is and hang out with log cottage in his log cottage. lol
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
Legend
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

@wiseguy,



I think we will be fine in how we bet on this product no matter how many ways it's analyzed and explained to us.




Determining actual WP in MLB is much tougher to calculate than
it is in CFB . That is fact. But given time they will figure it out.

Once  they have the ability to accurately determine Win Probabitily,
winners ( and profit  ) are gonna be a lot harder to find.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #22

Actually if Vegas gets the lines at the start of the game 100% accurate then it is simply a matter of arbitraging during the game when it is over/under valued at some point.

 

 

 

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #23

I agree it's Juiced, That way MLB can keep pushing stuff Like the Launch Angle and Exit Velocity and come up with more stats.

 
Legend
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Qwan61:

Actually if Vegas gets the lines at the start of the game 100% accurate then it is simply a matter of arbitraging during the game when it is over/under valued at some point.

  


That Simple , Huh      

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by Qwan61:

Actually if Vegas gets the lines at the start of the game 100% accurate then it is simply a matter of arbitraging during the game when it is over/under valued at some point.   
That Simple , Huh

 

If Vegas were to put up 100% accurate lines(which they are not capable of) they would in essence be cutting their own throats.

Bettors thinking they have an advantage would vanish and it would just turn into another casino game where the casino ALWAYS has the edge.

 

 

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