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Posted: #201

Quote Originally Posted by whitakp:

with pitching ERA, are you breaking it down by league?  I would think there would be a difference with the AL having a DH?

Don't look at ERA as a qualifer. Look to see if the pitcher is one of the top 20 according to Sagarin ratings.

 
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Posted: #202
Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

Washington had a three game winning streak going into game one, which eliminates the game.



I also think you are wrong on this aspect.  If you read the article it states you don't bet AGAINST a team on a 3+ win streak and you don't bet ON a team with a 3+ losing streak.

Anyone else's thoughts?
 
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Posted: #203
You are correct odieo, there is no rule saying you can't bet ON a team if they are the underdog and have won 3 in a row. You can't bet AGAINST teams that have won 3 in a row, and vice versa, even if the other team fits all the other criteria.
 
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Posted: #204

Quote Originally Posted by odieo:



I also think you are wrong on this aspect.  If you read the article it states you don't bet AGAINST a team on a 3+ win streak and you don't bet ON a team with a 3+ losing streak.

Anyone else's thoughts?

I just re-read the article and you are correct on both counts (It had been awhile since I first read it.) Just to clarify, if the underdog has the top 20 pitcher, it would still be a play.

Also, if the UD has a winning streak it would still be a play, unless the FAV also has a winning streak of 3 or more.

 

 
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Posted: #205

I am going to go back over the last three days to see if any games should have been added or subtracted since I forgot what the article stated. I'm not wagering on these games yet. I want to see how this system does for two weeks before I dive in. I will update system record and bankroll tomorrow. 

 

 
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Posted: #206
 
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Posted: #207
nice work and input

 
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Posted: #208

Early game Thursday:

Arizona +119

Atlanta could qualify, but this is only Jurrjens second start of the year, so I would pass. 

 

 
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Posted: #209
Qualifying Plays for tomorrow:

ARZ
ATL
HOU
PITT
OAK

Would be wary of ARZ and ATL though, Mike Leake #29 on ratings through yesterday plus don't see ARZ sweeping CIN at home - the Reds are due to put the hurt on them. 

Clayton Kershaw #23 vs ATL - plus POIZEN is right about Jurrjens.  May wanna stay away from first two plays this early in the season.  Will see what ratings look like in the morning before anything is locked in.

Also King Felix #35 whos due for a gem pitching against Oakland, but prolly still worth a play there.

 
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Posted: #210

Zona is going up against cinn who has lost 4. So is it only a 3 game losing streak?

 

 
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Posted: #211
Quote Originally Posted by simonidogs:

Zona is going up against cinn who has lost 4. So is it only a 3 game losing streak?

 



That is a non factor.  We would only eliminate ARZ if CIN had WON 3+.....or if ARZ has lost 3+.  I believe the reasoning is that you don't want to be betting against a or on a hot or cold team.

Will probably be staying away from ARZ tmmrw though because of the factors I mentioned above.....just my 2 cents....play em as you like!
 
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Posted: #212

here is the original post

1. Don't bet against any 3 game streaks whether it be losing or winning streaks.

Cinn has lost 4 (win or lose it says)

But is it 3 exactly or, 3 or more

 
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Posted: #213
Leake might not be starting since he got picked up for shoplifting yesterday.  Reds might pull him from the lineup.
 
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Posted: #214

Quote Originally Posted by odieo:

Qualifying Plays for tomorrow:

ARZ
ATL
HOU
PITT
OAK

Would be wary of ARZ and ATL though, Mike Leake #29 on ratings through yesterday plus don't see ARZ sweeping CIN at home - the Reds are due to put the hurt on them. 

Clayton Kershaw #23 vs ATL - plus POIZEN is right about Jurrjens.  May wanna stay away from first two plays this early in the season.  Will see what ratings look like in the morning before anything is locked in.

Also King Felix #35 whos due for a gem pitching against Oakland, but prolly still worth a play there.

Sratch Braves - LAD Kershaw moves up to 20

 
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Posted: #215
Quote Originally Posted by simonidogs:

here is the original post

1. Don't bet against any 3 game streaks whether it be losing or winning streaks.

Cinn has lost 4 (win or lose it says)

But is it 3 exactly or, 3 or more

 

3 is considered a start of a streak. You don't bet against any streak, which means don't bet losing teams to win and winning to lose.

 
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Posted: #216
Guys ( and dolls )
I decided yesterday to test this methodology with 10 dollar plays for a few weeks.
Wednesday I had two losrs- Pitt and Toronto ant two winners- Arizona and Houston.
Plus 5.05 for the day.
Today, Thursday I see Arizona, Houston, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Oakland. I am using the Yahoo stat site that Maglio mentioned for my top 20 pitchers. Hence Hernandez is out for Seattle and Oakland is a play.
Comments?
 
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Posted: #217
Quote Originally Posted by dpa27:

Leake might not be starting since he got picked up for shoplifting yesterday.  Reds might pull him from the lineup.


Leake still listed as starter....probably would have announce it by now - game in 1.5 hours - he got bumped down to the 2nd list on ratings because he has 16.2 innings pitched - minimum for first list as of today is 17.  He would be # 27 on the first list with his stats. 

Probably still going to duck this play - I feel this system needs a little finessing at least in April because the sample size of innings for these pitchers is so small - obv a great pitcher can get off to a slow start in his first few outings - so you don't wanna be firing against these guys when they are hitting their stride.

Great example of this would be the OAK play today vs. King Felix.....he is currently #37 on the ratings, but we all know he'll be top 20 come the dog days....going to be thinking about this one today, for me personally right now its a lean.

B-Bob, correct - ATL is now an non-qualifying play.  Was going to duck them either way - but Kershaw moved up to #20 on the updated ratitings.

Just my 2 cents....as always, play 'em as you like!
 
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Posted: #218
UPDATED Qualifying plays for 4/21:

ARZ
HOU
PITT
OAK

Get the best number you can!
 
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Posted: #219

Quote Originally Posted by taurus:

Guys ( and dolls )
I decided yesterday to test this methodology with 10 dollar plays for a few weeks.
Wednesday I had two losrs- Pitt and Toronto ant two winners- Arizona and Houston.
Plus 5.05 for the day.
Today, Thursday I see Arizona, Houston, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Oakland. I am using the Yahoo stat site that Maglio mentioned for my top 20 pitchers. Hence Hernandez is out for Seattle and Oakland is a play.
Comments?

$10.00 plays for 2 days = + 47.00  beer money!

 
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Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by odieo:

UPDATED Qualifying plays for 4/21:

ARZ
HOU
PITT
OAK

Get the best number you can!

Why not Minnesota and Tampa Bay?
 
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Posted: #221
Interesting...
 
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Posted: #222
Interesting stuff going on here!  I will be following closely.

GL Everyone!!

 
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Posted: #223
Quote Originally Posted by taurus:



MIN is eliminated as Guthrie is #16 on ratings.

TB i guess technically qualifies as a play.  Personally I won't be playing any "dogs" at negative money, I don't consider them true dogs too close to being a favorite IMO.  Something else to consider on that specific play is that Gavin Floyd is #29 on ratings.

Just my 2 cents....as always, play 'em as you like!


 
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Posted: #224
Agreed Odio.
I'm using ratings that have Guthrie outside the top twenty, and my preference is to include a -101 dog where perhaps I'm swayed by the respective winning and losing streaks.
GL
 
 
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Posted: #225

Quote Originally Posted by Maglio:

I frequent the boards here but don't post. Anyhow I currently bet on baseball almost as a  full time profession. If I didn't love my job so much I would bet on baseball only. I met someone about 7-8 years ago and he told me about this system and I've been playing it ever since.

Since playing this and no other sports betting whatsoever since 2005 I have profited somewhere in the $70 000 - $80 000 neighborhood. I wager $50 on all qualified plays no more no less no matter how much I may love or not love the pick (very important imo). I don't even really watch that much baseball. I simply see which games qualify wager on them and come back the next morning to do it all over again.

On top of discipline and money management there are 3 very easy keys to follow to make this work as history has proven.

Just a heads up all wagers are bets on the underdog moneyline.

1. Don't bet against any 3 game streaks whether it be losing or winning streaks.

2. Do no bet any underdog which opens at more than +150.

3. Eliminate all games going up against top 20 pitchers according to ERA.


On a decent day there should be anywhere from 2-8 games that qualify.


Best of luck!




9 pages and he doesn't post any plays?????

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