TOPSIM - 2022 MLB THREAD

I left the door open but that’s all for today! Back at it tomorrow with the personals 

Happy Thursday! 

Recap from yesterday's action. 

Model Plays came in at 5-5 overall for +0.91u. Big winners with Blue Jays +145 and A's +160. My Model from day 1 thinks the bookmakers are undervaluing the A's. They have been a consistent MODEL play from day 1. As long as they keep cashing, I don't care! 

ALL SIMS went 13-11 overall. Another winning day. ALL SIMS move to 63-48 overall on the season. Not bad for picking every game. 

PERSONAL PLAYS - I only had 1 play yesterday and that cashed with the Braves/Nats under. That moves me to 5-0 on my personal plays. Can I keep the streak alive today? 

Back at you today with 5 MODEL plays. The TopSim Line has the Dodgers as a -228 favorite and the books have them at -280. We will be taking Reds run line +1.5 at plus money. All SIMS are complete and posted to the google sheet below. 

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

PERSONAL PLAY ALERT!

PLAY #1: Cardinals +125 (Pointsbet)

I'm going to back the Cardinals at this generous number. Milwaukee is really struggling to score runs at the moment. The Brewers are scoring 3rpg which is 5th worst in the league right now. The Cardinals are 2nd in the MLB in rpg. I feel the Brewers and Woodruff are getting a little to much respect in this spot. Just a season ago Waino/Cards vs Woodruff were only +105 dogs during a career season for Woodruff. Now your giving me +125 early in the season? I'll take it.

The Brewers will be without Josh Hader and Devin Williams in their bullpen also. Woodruff is going to need to be perfect if the Brewers are going to win. Give me the pitcher in better form, the team with more lethal batting and give me the well rested bullpen today.

Feels like a trap but I can't pass up the number.

Good luck!

@newbs24

 If anyone uses theScore Bet they have the Cardinals at +130. 

I have Cards at +122 at moment

@newbs24

The Saint Louis Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog and are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series. The Cardinals are also 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter and are 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series and are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. National League Central. The Cardinals have been good to me this year especially compared to the Brewers who have burnt me a few times so far this year.  I like for the Saint Louis Cardinals to get the upset win to start the series in this one.

LET'S GO CARDINALS +125      

Let's get it fellas!

Happy Friday y'all!

Have a full slate of action today. First let's do a quick recap from yesterday.

PERSONAL PLAYS: 0-1

I thought the line was suspicious but I had to take the value in the Cards. I sensed a trap and I fell for it. First PERSONAL PLAY loss of the season. Sorry if anyone tailed.

MODEL PLAYS: 3-3 +1.1u

MODEL PLAYS went 3-3 for +1.1u. Big winner obviously being our Oakland A's at +190 and the Rangers pulled through for +130.

ALL SIMS: 10-12

I don't calculate units on all SIMS because its pointless. However with some of the Dogs I wouldn't be surprised if it was a positive unit down. Record wise this is the first losing day of the season for ALL SIMS.

I got 8 MODEL PLAYS for you today. Several big dogs. These are plays from a value standpoint. I would be really happy if we can split the BIG DOGS.

Best of luck to you today. I'll be back if I got PERSONAL PLAYS!

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

personal plays today?

PERSONAL PLAYS ALERT

PLAY #1: Astros/Mariners o8.5 (+105)

You can get this number at 8 or 8.5 depending on the book. I'm taking 8.5 and getting plus money vs paying a premium and getting 8.

Astros offense really struggled against the Diamondbacks this week and I'm looking at this Houston offense getting right this weekend. Neither of these pitchers looked sharp in their openers. TOPSIM has this line at nearly 9 so I'll take the 8.5.

PLAY #2: Rays +120

I'm going to take the Rays in tonight's match-up. After fading them in every game against the A's I'm going to take them as DOGS against the Sox. These teams are much closer than this line suggests. This is recency bias. I'm seeing a lot of experts taking the SOX so I like my play even more. Getting out of Tampa is a good way to clear the mind and get refocused and stop this small skid. Take the Rays!

PLAY #3: Rockies -115

Going to roll with the Rockies at home tonight. They will look to bounce back after losing 5-2 yesterday to the Cubs. TopSim had the Rockies -139 favs last night and have them -131 favs tonight. Rockies had 10 hits, 4 BB and only 2 runs. Rockies were always threatening it seemed but just couldn't cash in. I think that changes tonight.

No Suzuki in the lineup for the Cubs tonight either. Also reliever Keegan Thompson will not be available. 

Give me the cheap price with German Marquez who has been stellar the last few years pitching at Coors Field. Take the Rockies!

Good luck!

@newbs24

I GUESS WE CAN CHALK TODAY OFF AS A WAY OFF DAY.  I HOPE WE DO NOT HAVE TOO MANY OF THEM.  UNFORTUNATELY WE GOT MURDERED TODAY.  TODAY WOULD OF BEEN A GREAT DAY TO FADE THE PICKS FROM THE MODEL PLAYS.  LETS BAN TOGETHER, PRAY TOGETHER, AND HOPE TOGETHER THAT SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY. THE MODEL PLAYS PICKS ON FRIDAY WERE ATROCIOUS BECAUSE THEY WERE WAY THE HECK OFF TODAY.  I NOT ONLY LOST MY SHIRT BUT FREAKING PANTS AS WELL ON THE PICKS FROM THE  MODEL PLAYS TODAY.  COME ON YOU CAN DO WAY BETTER THAN THIS. I HAVE FAITH IN YOU AND KNOW YOU CAN DO WAY BETTER.  I HOPE AND PRAY YOU CAN FIND A WAY TO TURN THIS AROUND.  I AM COUNTING ON YOU.

@newbs24

I DO HAVE TO SAY THAT YOUR VERY HOT ON THE PERSONAL PLAYS GOING 2-1 FOR FRIDAY.  ON THEM BETS I WANT TO PERSONALLY THANK YOU BECAUSE I DID CASH 2 OF MY 3 TICKETS.  SO THAT PART WAS GREAT.  ON TOP OF THAT IT REALLY BOOSTED UP YOUR WINNING COUNT AND PERCENTAGE ON PERSONAL PLAYS.  SO KEEP THEM COMING.  I GUESS I WILL JUST FOLLOW THOSE PERSONAL PLAY BETS.  SO THANK YOU AND KEEP THE WINNERS COMING.  REMEMBER NOTHING PERSONAL BUT I CALL IT AS I SEE THEM A SPADE FOR A SPADE.  I AM SORRY I WAS UPSET EARLIER AND HAD TO VENT.  I DID  CALM THE HECK DOWN AFTER WINNING THESE TWO PERSONAL PLAY BETS SO I WANTED TO THANK YOU.

@DIRECTOR97

Got killed on the model plays too, but remember it’s a long season. Very long for baseball. All that matters is what the record looks like in the end. Newbs24’s college basketball record was great, so trusting baseball will come out on top in the end on the model plays. Just have to stick to money management and keep a straight head 

The weekend is here. Happy Saturday all. Little recap from yesterday. 

MODEL PLAYS: 1-7 -5.55u

MODEL PLAYS definitely struggled yesterday. I had a few days like this in college hoops but in the end we came out on top. It's so early in the season. The books are adjusting and so is my MODEL ratings. It absolutely sucks having these kind of days but if you manage and bet smart these days won't hurt as bad. I can't stress enough that you don't have to play every single MODEL play. I want my content to be a TOOL in your own personal handicap. The worst part of sharing content/plays is having a day like this. Back to the grind! 

ALL SIMS: 14-14

Surprisingly everything that wasn't a MODEL play was a winner. TOPSIM went 14-14 overall on all plays. 

PERSONAL PLAYS: 2-1 +1.0u

PERSONAL PLAYS had another winning night. These move to 7-2 on the young season. 

PROP PLAYS: 1-1 +0.60u

Some of you may have noticed on the google sheet two prop plays. This will be new and incoorperated into the TOPSIM content. I don't know if I will do it every night but do look for those to be posted on the sheet. 

Chris Taylor to single @ +160 got to the window. Joey Votto to single @ +175 was a loser. However we still gained .60u

SIMS and MODEL plays are posted for today. Please pay attention to the notes beside each MODEL play. There are some that are only considered a MODEL play if you get it at a certain number. 

PROPS/PERSONAL plays will be posted here if I have any. Good luck today and have a great weekend! 

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

Sheesh model plays getting destroyed again today. Know it’s just a few days and trying to keep my head on straight.. hoping for a turnaround and a good season overall. 

MY BROTHER MUST OF TAKEN THE DAY OFF WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE.  HAVE A GREAT EASTER EVERYONE.  HOPEFULLY SOON WE WILL GET BACK TO GETTING SOME PERSONAL PLAYS AND WINNING ONCE AGAIN.  THE PERSONAL PLAYS HAS SO FAR BEEN THE BEST PLAYS.

@newbs24

 IS TODAY ANOTHER POSSIBLE DAY OFF???  I HAVE NOT SEEN YOUR PLAYS FOR TODAY.  MISSED YOUR PLAYS AS WELL ON SUNDAY.  JUST WONDERING IF YOUR GOING TO POST BUT I UNDERSTAND IF YOU DONT POST.  I WOULD APPRECIATE A HEADS UP EITHER WAY.

@DIRECTOR97

TWO PERSONAL PLAYS

Cubs +132 (BARSTOOL)

Rockies/Phillies u11.5 (DraftKings)

Im having a baby any day now and this weekend we thought it was happening. With Easter also it was a no post day. Back to tomorrow with Sims

@newbs24

 Congrats!  Bol today

@newbs24

 BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT BROTHER.

I GOT CUBS +1.5 AND ROCKIES/PHILLY UNDER 11.5 SEPERATE BETS.  LETS CASH SOME TICKETS.

@newbs24

GREAT JOB TODAY BROTHER.  IT WAS A GREAT EASTER GIFT WITH THE TWO WINNING PERSONAL PLAYS.  AS I ALWAYS SAY GUYS LIKE ME OUT HERE COUNT ON YOUR WISDOM AND KNOWLEDGE.  KEEP THEM PERSONAL PLAYS COMING.  

@newbs24

 Congrats on ur plays!  Tailed u and won so very much appreciated!  Great job!  And good luck with the baby!  Don't forget to take care of momma to once that bambino is born!  

@DIRECTOR97

 Good start to the week! 

@Strych9

 Thank you!! This is my first one so I'm going to need it!