TOPSIM - 2022 MLB THREAD

@newbs24

 Mazel Tov to You and Momma 

Congrats and Best wishes always 

Great picks as well..

ENJOY . 

Thank you everyone!! 

SIMS are complete. I have 4 MODEL plays for today. I've adjusted my criteria for MODELS based on my audit of the first 11 days. 

PERSONAL PLAYS continue to be profitable. My personal plays are 9-2 for +7.37u thus far.

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

Good luck today!! 

@newbs24

SINCE I AM WONDERING AND EVERYONE MOST LIKELY WILL BE ASKING DO YOU HAVE ANY PERSONAL PLAYS FOR TODAY?  

BEST OF LUCK TODAY BROTHER.  

@newbs24

 Just curious how sf/Mets game 1 o 7 wasn't a model play?  It's ur largest diff bt line and proj.

@DIRECTOR97

 I will have a few PERSONAL plays today. I'm working on the write ups now. Stay tuned.

@Strych9

 That's a valid question. During my audit I found that any MODEL (TOTAL) that has a LD of .60 or greater is 7-15 overall right now. a LD of .50 to .59 is 3-2 overall. Although I think it's fluky I'm going to play the sweet spot/reduce the plays until it finds it's groove again. Really up until last Friday/Saturday it was doing just fine.

@newbs24

SOUNDS GREAT I CAN'T WAIT TO SEE WHAT PERSONAL PLAYS YOU GOT GOING ON TODAY.   

@newbs24

 Thx for the confirmation. Bc I have also noticed the same in ur totals line diff ytd. 

Good stuff. Look forward to seeing the new results from the model tweaks.  Bol pal!

PERSONAL PLAYS - 04/19/22

PLAY #1: Cardinals -110

I'm going to take a shot on the Cardinals here on the road. I backed Waino in Milwaukee last week and lost. I'm going to give him another chance at redemption here.

The Cardinals lead the MLB in hitting against lefties. Cardinals have a .419 wOBA leading the majors. Cardinals also have the third best bullpen to date. Wainwright is 3-1 vs Miami since 2016.

Jesus Luzardo had a great outing to open up his season but I need to see more from him before I can back the Marlins. I don't expect him to go very deep in this game so good opportunity for the Cards to get the bullpen.

Play #2: Rangers +128 (Barstool)

Love the Rangers tonight. Their Bullpen scares me but this team leads the MLB against lefties. Just in front of the Cardinals. The Rangers have an 8.2 wRAA against lefties this season. Next best is 6.5. Jon Gray has a 6.75 ERA but advanced numbers suggest that ERA shoulder be closer to 2.97. At +128 I'm going to take a chance on the best hitting team metrics wise against a decent Mariners club. All the "experts" are all in on the Mariners tonight.

Play #3: Twins/Royals o8 (theSCORE)

We got around 12 MPH winds blowing out. Last two seasons this series is 11-5-3 to the over. Mediocre pitchers/pens. I like my chances of this one going over.

Good luck!

Adding a PERSONAL PLAY

PLAY #4: Giants ML gm2 

No write up as I’m commuting. Good luck!

@newbs24

 OK GOT ALL 4 PERSONAL PLAYS.  I AM EXCITED.  LETS CASH SOME TICKETS.  

BEST OF LUCK BROTHER.  

BEST OF LUCK WITH THAT NEW BABY.  PLEASE LET US KNOW WHEN THE NEW BABY IS BORN.  

PERSONAL PLAYS: 

PLAY #1: Phillies -115 (Barstool)

PLAY #2: Dodgers -125 (CIRCA)

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

SIMS/MODEL plays were posted to the sheet earlier this morning! 

BOL. 

I GOT ON LATE SO I WAS ONLY ABLE TO GET A BET IN FOR PHILY ML.  LETS CASH SOME TICKETS BROTHER.  

PERSONAL PLAY ALERT

PLAY #3: Twins -117 (CIRCA)

Twins are off to a slow start considering their expectations and offseason acquisitions. I like this spot tonight for the Twinkies to get things right. Chris Paddack gave up 3er in 4 innings of work in his Twins debut against the Dodgers. Aside from 1 bad inning he really looked pretty good. I'm going to back the Twins at a short price here against Daniel Lynch who shouldn't dominate you. I don't expect him to go very deep either so I like the Twins to take advantage of an OK starting pitcher and a bad bullpen. Take the Twins. 

PERSONAL PLAY ALERT

PLAY #4: Rangers +141 (CIRCA)

I really thought this could be a sneaky team this season but they’ve been anything but. They’re 13th in Runs scored this year but Pitching is horrendous. They’ve allowed the 4th most runs. I still think this team is capable of cashing tickets with their offense. I’m going to take a chance again on the Rangers here. I don’t think the Mariners should be a team getting 85% of bets at -150. Give me the Rangers

@newbs24

      I AM FALLING AND I CAN'T GET UP.     

PERSONAL PLAY!

PLAY #1: Rangers ML

Good luck!

@newbs24

I TOOK SEATTLE EARLIER TODAY.  IS THERE ANY SPECIFIC REASON WHY YOUR CHERRING SO MUCH EVERY DAY FOR A LOSING TEXAS TEAM.  YOUR THE SECOND GREAT HANDICAPPER TODAY THAT SAID TO BET ON THE TEXAS RANGERS WITHOUT ANY EXPLANATION.  HONESTLY DID EVERYONE LOSE THERE MINDS?  LIKE REALLY THE RANGERS IS THE BEST PERSONAL PLAY YOU CAN COME UP WITH ALL DAY.  THE ONLY EXPLANATION THAT I CAN COME UP WITH WHY YOUR PUSHING THE RANGERS SO HARD DAILY IS EITHER YOUR FROM TEXAS OR WANT TO LIVE IN TEXAS.  PLEASE DONT TELL ME THE RANGERS ARE YOUR FAVORITE TEAM.  JUST CURIOUS ABOUT THIS ISSUE TRYING TO MAKE SOME LOGIC OUT OF IT.  OK MY RANT IS DONE.  

ANYWAYS BOL  LET THE BEST TEAM AND HANDICAPPER WIN THIS GAME.  

I don’t always have time to do write-ups. I didn’t even get to look at the slate until late. I do this for free on my free time so will get plays out when I can. 

I think the Rangers are underachieving right now.  Easy spot to bet them as well.

Rangers are 3rd in average vs lefties, 4th in runs vs lefties and have a  6.8 wRAA vs lefties

Mariners are batting .177 vs lefties. Near dead last in baseball. They have a -1.7 wRAA vs lefties.

Taylor Hearn is the Rangers best pitcher. Had one bad inning tonight but aside from that he leads the team in WAR and has 2.28 xfip 

Opposing him tonight was Marco Gonzales who has the worst WAR on the Mariners for pitchers. Also has an xFIP of over 5 

based off of that information alone I’d be dumb not to take Rangers at plus money. 

@newbs24

Thank you for the great information.  I was not trying to break your balls just need a logical explanation which you just gave me.  That did make a lot of sense.  Your team won so that was great.  I was just wondering why the heck was two great handicappers on the same team and made it there personal play of the day.  Now this blind old dumb man knows why.  Let's get another winner today brother.

@DIRECTOR97

 He even figured out how to take the all caps off on his pc.

SIMS are complete for today and posted to the sheet. 

Rangers cashed last night getting us 1.20u on the PERSONAL plays. 

PERSONAL plays move to 13-7 for +6.25u this season.

I should have a couple of those tonight so stay tuned. If I have time I'll do writeups. 

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

  good work 

@Pho-20

 Thanks Pho!