TOPSIM - 2022 MLB THREAD

Good evening everyone! 

The TopSim Simulations are complete for opening day. I run SIMS for every game of the season and give my projected money line and total. MODEL plays that meet my criteria from the SIMS are highlighted in YELLOW and are plays I'm on personally. The rest of the plays are to be used as informational purposes for your own handicap. For those that didn't follow me during college hoops below is how the spreadsheets looked over the course of the college basketball season. 

I typically won't have the SIMS complete until a few hours prior to the start of the first game. If you have any questions about the spreadsheet don't hesitate to ask. Hope some of you can find this useful.

3 MODEL PLAYS are triggered for tomorrow. See spreadsheet for plays.  

Let's have a an awesome MLB season and go Dodgers! 

College Basketball season spreadsheet:

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JvWccB-xl3WK_nZMUbMUIXwFO98io69YcP8re4gGEco/edit?usp=sharing

2022 TOPSIM MLB spreadsheet:

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

04/07/2022

3 MODEL plays on the card today! Good luck!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

Thank You! 

did u get under 10 on the chi/mil game? line dropped to 9 hours ago

I did last night around 11:00pm when the spreadsheet was originally posted. Typically I won't be posting so far in advance so there won't be huge line discrepancies/line movements like this particular game for example. Given it was opening day I was chomping at the bit. 

@newbs24

 nice, went to check wind at wrigley and it dropped to 9 on me

Glad to know that you have Sims for baseball. Let's get It. 

Good morning everyone!

What a way to start the year off going 3-0 on TOPSIM MODEL plays yesterday collecting a total of 3.75 units. Reds +170 was the big winner of the night.

The MODEL was very active this morning. ALL SIMS are complete and posted to the sheet below. Currently have 9 MODEL plays. Tread lightly!

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

I will more than likely have my first personal play of the year. It will be highlighted in ORANGE.

Good luck if you tail!

THIS GUY VANISHED WHERE THE HECK DID HE GO TO JAIL OR SOMETHING. 

HE HAS NOT BEEN ON IN LIKE A FEW DAYS.

@DIRECTOR97

 I didn't vanish I promise. I had family functions this weekend and wasn't able to post. I'm back strong today!

GOOD MORNING! 

Well not a horrible way to start the first week of MLB. Below is a recap of the first week. I wasn't able to post this weekend due to family function. I'm back strong this week!

MODEL PLAYS: 7-5

ALL SIMS: 20-18 (TOTALS: 9-10, ML: 11-8)

PERSONAL: 0-0

All SIMS are complete for today's action. There are 7 MODEL plays triggered for today. I use BetMGM lines and if any MODEL plays are triggered I'll price shop to see if I can get a better line. If I find a better line I'll let you know which book.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

Good luck today!!

I have my first PERSONAL play's of the season.

PLAY #1: Tigers +105 (DRAFTKINGS)

I'm going to roll with the Tigers at plus money @ home here. Boston coming off Sunday night baseball vs rival Yankees and having to travel to the Midwest late last night. First pitch is 4:00 CT. Give me the Tigers at +105 vs Michael Wacha who posted a 5.05 ERA last year. Red Sox bullpen facing a slight disadvantage today also. Given these factors I'll absolutely take the dog in this match-up. Take the Tigers!

Plat #2: Blue Jays +100 (CAESERS)

Going to roll with Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays at +100. Alek Manoah was an absolute stud last year. Manoah posted a 2.31 ERA vs the Yanks last season. I'm expecting similar results this season. I think the wrong team is favored here. My slight concern is with the Blue Jays bullpen. It's nothing impressive. I'm still going to take the slight dog here.

@newbs24

Tigers Won Congrats    

Blue Jays are up 2-0 at the moment. 

Best of Luck. 

On another note I got worried about you because I did not know what happened to you.  Personally I am going to take some time off because I got rocked this past weekend.    I will be back betting MLB soon.  I anticipate either this

Friday or in the next few weeks.  In the mean time I am going to keep up with your picks and wish you the best of luck.  

CONGRATS ON YOUR PERSONAL PLAYS TODAY.  I SAW THAT YOU WENT 2-0 TIGERS AND BLUE JAYS DOING A GREAT JOB WINNING FOR YOU.   THE BLUE JAYS EVEN HAD A TOUGH COMPETITOR THE YANKEES AND THEY SHUT THEM OUT WINNING 3 TO 0.  TIGERS ON THE OTHER HAND HAD ANOTHER TOUGH OPPONENT IN THE RED SOX AND THEY ALSO BEAT THEM 3 TO 1.  I AM VERY IMPRESSED WITH YOUR PERSONAL ORANGLE PICKS.  GREAT WAY TO START THE YEAR OFF WITH PERSONAL PICKS.  

@DIRECTOR97

 Thank you!! Feel's good to start the PERSONALS out on a good note. It's a long season so let's hope for many more days like yesterday! 

Good morning everyone! 

Back at ya today with a full slate of games. First here is a recap of yesterday. 

MODEL PLAYS: Model Plays went 3-2 +1.85u with the big winner being the A's at +195. Met's blowing a 4-0 lead in the 8th really ruined what could of been a monster day. Oh well. It's everyday in the MLB. 

PERSONAL PLAYS: Personal plays got off to a nice start going 2-0 for +2.05u. 

ALL SIMS: All SIMS went 11-10 overall. Totals went 5-5 and ML plays went 6-5. 

I got 4 MODEL plays for you today. 2 nice sized DOGs and 2 totals. There are a couple plays that are a linemove away from being triggered as a MODEL play. I will watch those throughout the day and let you know if anything changes. Plays are linked below.

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

Coming at you with two PERSONAL PLAYS

PLAY #1: Yankees -120

Going to roll with the Yankees here to even this series up tonight. I think this is a good bounce back spot for the Bronx Bombers. Yesterday I took a chance on the Blue Jays knowing Manoah could go deep. The Blue Jays bullpen scares the crap out of me. Kikuchi has only gone into the 6th inning 3 times in his last 14 starts. Kikuchi is 1-2 with a 4.57 era vs the Yanks. I'm going to bank on Kikuchi not going deep and the Yanks getting 4 or 5 innings vs this Blue Jays bullpen. Give me Cortes and the better bullpen here in a revenge spot at a small price. Take the Yanks

PLAY #2: Giants -110

I'm really liking the Giants in this spot tonight. Yu Darvish had a great start to his 2022 campaign posting 6 scoreless innings vs the Diamondbacks. After such a stellar performance fangraphs has Darvish with a 4.11 FIP and 6.20 xFIP. Considering those stats plus his struggles last season on the road I'm going to grab the Giants at this cheap price. Darvish posted a +5 ERA on the road last season going 2-7 overall. If the Padres can't get Darvish to go deep they will be reliant on a very depleted bullpen.

Giants bullpen is in good shape tonight. Alex Cobb had a rather respectable season last year going 8-3 with a 3.76 ERA. I just feel the Giants are in a better spot going into tonight and we are getting a cheap price so the Giants are the play.

Good luck if you tail!

@newbs24

BEST OF LUCK TO YOU TODAY BROTHER ON ALL OF YOUR PICKS ESPECIALLY ON YOUR PERSONAL ORANGE PICKS OF THE YANKEES AND GIANTS.  I HOPE YOU CASH YOUR TICKETS TODAY.  YOU DESERVE IT ESPECIALLY FOR ALL OF THE HARD WORK YOU PUT INTO THIS AND FOR WHAT YOU DO TO ASSIST EVERYONE.     

@newbs24

 Yes Sir your personal plays did cash.  Great job.  Keep the winning picks coming.

@DIRECTOR97

 Thank you!! Appreciate the support

Good morning all! Recapping yesterday. We had a pretty good day all around.

ALL SIMULATIONS went 19-9 overall. That is the best day of the year so far. Hopefully have many more of those days to come.

MODEL PLAYS went 2-2 overall. We had two nice sized dogs in A's +175 and Rockies +140 and were able to split those. I thought the A's were gonna do it but couldn't quite come through for us.

PERSONAL PLAYS went 2-0 again. That moves the PERSONALS to 4-0 on the year.

FIRST 7 DAYS:

MODEL PLAYS: 12-9

PERSONAL PLAYS: 4-0

ALL SIMS: 50-37

Today's SIMS should be complete here shortly.

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12joFUsXUm2-vrCVm9UPE2LbcaI411Oth68lHW3n8dX8/edit?usp=sharing

PERSONAL PLAY - 04/13/22

Coming at you with 1 PERSONAL play to start the afternoon off.

PLAY #1: Nationals/Braves u9

Both starting pitchers Josiah Gray and Max Fried got off to not so great starts to begin their 2022 campaign. Josiah Gray gave up 4 ER in 4 IP and Max Fried gave up 5 ER over 5.2 IP. Both pitchers performed better than the stats suggest. Both have an xERA around or under 4. I'm expecting solid bounce back performances out of these guys today. Both bullpens seem to be in pretty good shape. All the top arms will be available for this one.

Behind home plate is umpire DJ Reyburn. The under is 9-2-1 the last 2 seasons and 15-7-1 the last 3 seasons in NL games with Reyburn behind the plate.

Good luck if you tail!

PERSONAL PLAY with the Nats/Braves u9 gets to the window. PERSONAL PLAYS now 5-0 to start the season!

@newbs24

CONGRATS ON THE PERSONAL UNDER PLAY.  I ACTUALLY HAD THE CHANCE TODAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT PICK WHICH I DID AND JUST CASHED MY TICKET.  SO NOW I WANT TO PERSONALLY THANK YOU.  I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO A LOT MORE OF THEM COMING.  I REALLY WANTED TO SAY WAY TO GO SIR.  WHAT'S THAT NOW 5 AND 0. 

@newbs24

ANY MORE PERSONAL PLAYS FOR THE DAY???  I WANT TO WAIT ON YOUR PERSONAL PLAYS UNTIL I PLACE MY NEXT BET. I NOTICED EARLIER TODAY YOU SAID THAT HERE IS ONE PERSONAL PLAY TO START THE DAY.  SO I AM UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT YOU JUST MAY HAVE ANOTHER WINNING PERSONAL PLAY IN THE BANK.  NORMALLY YOU HAVE BEEN POSTING AT LEAST 2 PERSONAL PLAYS A DAY.  TODAY YOU POSTED 1 PERSONAL PICK.  MAYBE TODAY WAS A SLOWER DAY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.