To me this feels more like the Cavs/Raps series where GSW will go up 2-0 in convincing fashion and then Cavs will tie it up at 2-2 at home.
Some pretty damning trends going against the Cavs, though I don't know how to weight these correctly in the playoffs.
Cavaliers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NBA Championship games.
Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Warriors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Warriors are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cavaliers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.
Warriors are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games playing on 2 days rest.
Two trends that favor the Cavs:
Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Some very strong trends towards the under, two of which I'll bold.
Under is 74-32-3 in Cavaliers last 109 Sunday games.
Under is 11-5-1 in Warriors last 17 Sunday games.
Under is 21-8-1 in Warriors last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Only trend I could find that favors the over is:
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
These might mean nothing to you but just throwing them out there