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2018 NBA PLAYOFFS.......................................

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Posted: #276
totals --- 0-1 lost 2.2 units
2cd half --- 0-1, lost 1.1

Both teams shot dreadful.  Your MVP Harden was pathetic once again on 3's... 0 of 11, he has had many very dreadful shooting games in the playoffs with 3's, even in regular season coming in to the end of season he has been poor on 3's.

He shots 36.7 % in regular season and is 30.9 % in playoffs.

league ave in regular season is 36.2%, he is not a great 3 point shooter but takes volume of 3's which in 3's can be important.

36.7 % on 3's is the same as 55% on 2's, take alot of 3's and you shoot 55% on alot of shots by the problem is being consistent game to game.

Seems the Rockets win alot of games Harden shoots dreadful on 3's though.


Once again the difference in the game was Warriors weakness in shooting efficiency, of the 2 pt, 3 pt, FT and TO we use to measure shooting efficiency the Warriors are weak at sending opps to the line more often then they go there and they lose the TO battle, but they win the other areas by historical amounts.

Warriors are historical over-all in shooting efficiency , greatest team ever by a fairly good amount, but they do have some weaknesses within the shooting efficiency meteric.


Rockets got 9 more FT's and 6 more TO, basically the difference in a 4 point win.

Those are areas the Rockets can exploit, when Warriors do not TO the Ball over eliminating one area of weakness with-in shooting efficiency they are very tough to beat.

Warriors won the other areas of shooting efficiency fairly big, out-shooting the Rockets but those other areas the Rockets could exploit made the game closer to give Rockets a chance.


Now with Rockets off 2 ATS wins and after losing game 1 putting the Rockets in a position  needing to  win 3 of the next 4 games to gain control of the series and get home court advantage back the  Rockets needed to bring very intense energy, effort and focus to do that VS a quality team like the Warriors will take it's toll on Rockets . Doubtful they can match that intensity game 6 and Warriors will be in urgent mode playing at home   

Now with Rockets  going on the road game 6 has blow-out win for Warriors written all-over it.

Seen this spot many times over history, very bad spot for Rockets.

 
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Posted: #277
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Claw: I could easily come in here tonite and try to put you in your place the way you did to me in your essay the other day (this coming after I had an enormous nite in taking rockets ML, which I still can’t believe you tried doing) but I won’t bud. I will show some class. On to tomorrow chief. 


I had many enormous days when you lost your shirt, no point in bragging about 1 win which you are very famous for doing.

Once again you show how little you know about sports betting.

A sports bettor can not pick every game with the info they use, you can not pick every game, so I picked many games and won that you did not make a pick, big deal, why do you think that is so meaningful ?

It is meaningless, as anyone with any knowledge knows their info can not pick every game.

What is far more meaningful is how is your info doing over-all, I crushed you in NFL playoffs and am  ahead of you in NBA playoffs.

I don't go around bragging about that.

So once again you come in here and talk about 1 enormous night as though that 1 night is so damn meaningful, but let's throw out the window all the games I won day after day when you were losing your shirt.

I never came in your thread bragging about 1 meaningful night beating you even when I was on the opposite side of the same game and beat you over and over again, many times in NBA Playoffs my info crunched yours.

I never bragged about that like you do.

What I did was give you life lessons on how to approach sports betting, mistakes you make, mistakes in your way of thinking.

Mistakes in your belief that 1 enormous night is so damn meaningful.

Mistakes in your belief that because you beat me 1 or 2 times that erases all the other games I beat you.
\
Mistakes in your belief that because your info can pick the Rockets to win and my info did not that  somehow makes you superior.

I point out your flawed way of thinking as a way to help guide you to a better thought process and understand sports betting better,, you brag about your wins . Big, big difference there 


You said  in some games that no info pointed to certain teams when that was false.

A more accurate way to say that would be, no info Achilles is aware of point to a team. That is not the same thing as no info exists as you try to state

See,  flawed thinking on you part

Your flawed thinking then helps you reach a conclusion that the only possible explanation because no info points to a team, therefore it must be the script.

Your flawed thinking, your mistake believing that no info pointed to those teams was the beginning of you believing in the script.

If you were more knowlegdable to know that info does exist but you just do not know what that info is.

Those are the types of things I point out to you.

There is no one person who knows all the angles and trends and info that can point to every single team.

The idea behind sports betting is to take the info you use and find good value on teams the info likes, I did that and did it very well.

THERE WILL ALWAYS BE INFO THAT PICKS THE OPPOSITE SIDE  ANY GAME.

The idea is , will my info be better then the info that picks the opposite side ?

AND THAT IS THE CHALLENGED OF SPORTS BETTING, CAN MY INFO BE BETTER ?

To find better info one needs to look very long and hard and very deep into things, can not do it watching games on TV, everybody knows that info.


But to say no info exist is FLAWED thinking on your part. Completely 100 % false.

The difference between you and me is I point out flawed thinkers like you.  

Where-as  you come here and brag you had 1 enormous night in a game  I did not make a pick in and somehow want to say that is meaningful  which is flawed thinking from start to finish on your part.


 
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Posted: #278
Well said, Claw 
 
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Posted: #279
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Well said, Claw 

Thank you.................
 
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Posted: #280
CLAW: 

I touched a nerve huh? I didn’t even say anything either. Hmmmmm.....imagine how I felt when you acted like a brat and tried putting me in my place after a big nite. A nite where the almighty claw gave his audience a “lean”. I actually felt sorry for ya to be honest. Here..... I can’t tell if you are angry or sad above? You can write all you want chief.....how you handled yourself the other day in my thread is no better than what you speak of me and how I’ve handled the scum that floods this forum. You act like I go out of my way to initiate being a d@ck. That’s wrong. All I’ve done is weed out the fakes, the leaches and the scum on this site and as seen lately there’s a lot of it. Like you, they love coming for me....it’s actually flattering though considering they go out of their way. If the scum is people like FAN CLUB PRESIDENT MONKEED@CK above who goes around seeking plays and begging for insight yet NEVER posts a play (I know that guy too well, I have PMS. from previous playoff years begging me for plays the same way he begs SW- he gets mad and trolls because he knows I’m telling the truth about him- he’s the biggest bandwagon leach on here) or if it’s guys like GTD or FallopianTuber.....then it’s necessary somebody, anybody calls those puds out considering covers won’t weed these douches out of this site. Those jags are there on the losses, which I guess I get considering the site, but YOU......YOU show up after the wins which speaks volumes. It’s pathetic. It’s lower than low.

Like I’ve said Claw, some may worship you in here because of your 5 million methods but I don’t and I honestly think that bothers you to the core. You’ve changed into a whiny little brat full of excuses. I mean your analytics fail you at times the same way my “angles” have failed me yet one of us takes ownership and one doesnt when they lose.I don’t leave myself outs. I paint the picture before it happens and if I lose there’s no way of wiggling out. You? All the created methods....the “regression” crap....that’s your out. Weak. Somehow in your almond size mind, you feel that your losses and wins are more respectable than others who don’t cap like you. That’s sad man. Blaming rims, coming into others threads AFTER WINS and spreading your hate; classy. Have I ever done that to the almighty claw? Come in AFTER a win and rip you apart like you tried the other day to me? Nope. Claw: I don’t like you....I think thats clear but at least in the past I’ve paid you respect because you would win on occasion. See for me, if people are winning it doesn’t matter how so long as if they win; I respect that. YOU, you don’t think that way. You get bratty when someone gets from point A to point B differently than how you would. It’s like a little preschooler who watched someone build a LEGO tower faster in a different way. That’s you. It’s actually quite amusing. 

It bothers you to the absolute core that your way isn’t the only way of capping bud and that in itself speaks volumes as well. I’ve said this before chief: I’d put my capping up against your number crunching any day. And when it comes to the big games, the big bet games, the playoffs, I’d wager that I’d beat that a$$ bad. Ego? Nope. It’s pure proof in the pudding. NCAA playoffs, NBA playoffs, MLB playoffs, NCAA tourney, NFL season/ Playoffs. You name it bud, bring it. We both lose but percentage wise I’d kick that a$$ mr “you lost your shirt”.....whatever that means? You don’t have a clue the realities of how sports work. You just think because you’ve made up fancy methods that those are the end all be all to capping. You’d be in awe if I showed you some of the information I’ve gotten over the years and you’ve be floored if I shared some of the  conversations I’ve had with some in the industry. Your head would spin!  It’s who ya know bud....just as much as what you THINK  you know. But hey, you are the CLAW, the almighty. Zzzzzzzz. I’m done even giving a hint of respect here man. You showed your true colors the other day and that was enough. You can deflect all you want but you are worse in character. I could only imagine your face when you typed all that hate in my thread the other day. You took it here bud, not me. This is your issue, not mine. It’s comical. Good luck method man. 
 
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Posted: #281
Hahahaha....the post above explains all. Simple as that. Thanks 
 
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Posted: #282
MY LINES.....................................GAME 6

Celtics -2.21 over Cavs

we all know Cavs are better then their regular season suggests. Are they 9..21 better ? Debatable there.

But Celtics rating was with Kyrie, are they worth the same without him ?

To many if's......however we do have another angle , but it does depend on my line...............when a team has a 2-0 ATS record at home in the series and then is pick against by my line at home, seems to be a very strong spot.

Tonight might just be the night this home teams covering the spread ends and that would mean a possible Celtics SU win , but they could cover with a backdoor trailing by double digits.

Public is on a 1-3 run, their  1 win was a 52% game but their 3 losses were 75%, 69%, 59%, wow, they lost some big % games.

This is getting close to the time you'd want to back the public not fade them.

I'd wait out 1 more game, if public loses and even more so if a fairly large % on the game, which last I checked was 66% on Cavs  I start to look for public to win, and most likely will be on Warriors in game 6. Was 81% on Warriors but still early and very likely will go down from that number quite a bit.


The Celtics could very well be in this game with a chance to win SU, but a little hesitant based on my lines to take any action, if the public shifts to Celtics would LEAN Celtics +7.



PLAYOFF ONLY LINE......................Cavs -4.57 over Celtics

But that is to small a sample , does point to Celtics covering though, 

Playoff only line 3-1 ATS thus far, had we backed the Celtics those other games we would here but passing up wins and then backing them is not the thing to do.

Tough to make a play in this series with the situation the way it is.
 
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Posted: #283
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Hahahaha....the post above explains all. Simple as that. Thanks 

Is SW not out of bed yet? Is the anxiety growing in that you NEED his plays tonite? “What are the ref assignments”? Duhhhhh. You are the like pivot person in a circle j@rk, you know that right? You will take it however you can get it right? 
 
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Posted: #284
Lol. If you read his thread dipshitt, I called Houston in game 5 idiot before he even posted. It’s not a coincidence you posted a 2h over a couple minutes after he did as well so don’t pretend you don’t value his plays.

I thought you were leaving after your Pittsburgh debacle a couple months ago only to return because you NEED covers. 

Stop pretending like you are mr. Humble as if you’ve been blessed. You’re full of shitt and I’m glad others can recognize the smoke 
 
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Posted: #285
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Lol. If you read his thread dipshitt, I called Houston in game 5 idiot before he even posted. It’s not a coincidence you posted a 2h over a couple minutes after he did as well so don’t pretend you don’t value his plays.

I thought you were leaving after your Pittsburgh debacle a couple months ago only to return because you NEED covers. 

Stop pretending like you are mr. Humble as if you’ve been blessed. You’re full of shitt and I’m glad others can recognize the smoke 

 
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Posted: #286
All this arguing and bragging is beyond unpleasant, and it certainly does NOT produce winners ATS.  Neither does it produce a congenial environment.

Gentlemen, please stick to handicapping.
 
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Posted: #287
MY LINES...................................GAME 6

Warriors -7.58 over Rockets

We don't use my lines in close-out games. We use info which tells us who will win the series, we back the series winner as long as info is very solid and not a close series winner.

Warriors are the better team, the very best we could give the Rockets is about even with the Warriors based on PR II, with a evenly matched series or the better team trailing no way we could back the Rockets here.


Rockets are off 2 ATS wins and off 3 of 4 SU wins after losing game 1 and needing to expend alot of energy, effort and focus to get home court back and take control of the series, horrendously bad spot, these type games have seen 20 pt or more blow-out wins many times over history.

The line seems crazy high and we also have a huge line adjustment based on opening of -7.5 in Warriors 1st home game. This does tells us to back the Rockets but not in this spot.

Warriors -12.5 over Rockets --- 2.2 units


we would of come bigger but the huge line adjustment is a negative for us but not enough to change the play.

The public did bounce back last night after a poor run and won on Cavs with 54%, however, both the publics wins were very small % and 2 of 3 losses were very big with a 3rd loss still much bigger then any win, public on Warriors tonight at this time might just get those big losses back.



Huge line adjustment on the under , 214 tonight with a opening of 226 in game 3 Warriors 1st home game, big over-reaction off the 2 low scoring games in Houston and with Paul out.

Would look for Warriors to bring all the energy and effort tonight and run up a big offensive  out put. .Downside might be Rockets coming up way short on offf, not because of Paul but because of the spot.



LEAN --- Warriors/Rockets OVER 214 
 
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Posted: #288
Lean --- Warriors team total  OVER 113.5
Lean --- Rockets team total UNDER 101
 
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Posted: #289

Claw,

I dont bet much these days but still love ur input.

Look forward to your NFL new_praise

 

 
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Posted: #290
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

Claw,

I dont bet much these days but still love ur input.

Look forward to your NFL new_praise

 


 
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Posted: #291
games --- 1-0 ATS, won 2 units

leans --- 2-1 


Warriors did their thing in the 3rd quarter as they usually do, and the very strong spot did it again with another 20 pt or more big blow-out win.

Of course guys who have no clue about these spots are the first  guys who will claim it was all a set-up to get an exciting  game 7 for ratings. 

History is loaded with these spots, but YOU have to go find them.

A guy who does not know these spots will claim they do not exist. 

Many things exist I don't know about, but that is the challenge, to try and learn the things you don't know.


Set's up a classic game 7, looks like Paul will be out from what they are saying as of now.

I would not count the Rockets out even without Paul, as basketball is a game of making shots. Gordon can come in and shoot lights-out , even have a game would be better then Paul might have, this is very possible in one game, over 7 games he may not be as good but he only needs to do it for 1 game, not 4 out of 7.

With all that said I would look for the better team to win SU which is the Warriors, but maybe not enough to take any action.

We will find better spots down the road, we do not make a play just to make a play. We find the best spots to make plays.




 
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Posted: #292

“Of course guys who have no clue about these spots are the first guys who will claim its all a set up”

“A guy who does not know these spots will claim they do not exist”

or how bout this: a guy who doesn’t know....they’ll just post LEANS. Leans= easy way out in case you can’t cap a game. Put a name on your accusations rather than be passive aggressive chief. Keep dishing out those leans almighty one. It’s just too funny.

 
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Posted: #293
PLAYOFFS TO DATE --- 24-17-1 ATS --- WON 12.25 UNITS
TOTALS --- 8-2 --- WON 8.6
TOTALS 2CD HALF --- 0-1, LOST 1.1 UNIT

LEANS --- 11-6-1 
ML LEANS --- 2-1,  2 wins +915

SERIES PLAYS --- 1-1, WON  2.45 UNITS
SERIES PARLAYS --- 0-2 LOST 4.57



So far guys we have taken action on 53 games or totals and have won over 60% at 61.3%. (32-20-1)

we had 18 leans and hitting 63.9%.

we've made almost 3 plays for every lean.

we did hit 2 monster ML leans totaling +915 while only losing 1.
and we hit 1 dog on the series odds 

last year we did hit  1 unit play on  the biggest ML I  ever played in my life , a monsterous +1800 on the Celtics (+17 or +18) over the Cavs and we hit another monster  +700 ML 1st half lean on Celtics  


Next up guys is Arena Football Playoffs, we've been in AF only 3 years, called the champion all 3 years before the playoffs began, including our monster over 40 unit day in the Arena bowl when we called our favorite to win the Title  Philly to win SU as a +13 dog and a very nice +380 ML play and we hit  props on team totals as well.

Line opened -7 and the world pounded Zona driving it up a huge amount with every Tom, person and Harry expert and ave joe  riding the Zona machine.

Philly needed to beat the Pats of Arena football, Arizona who had been in like 4 of the past 5 arena bowls and won 3 of them.

Every expert was on Arizona even with the inflated line, not only did we call the correct out-come we called how they would win before the playoffs even started, they would win the fumble battle.

Philly won the 1st quarter by the largest margin in Arena Bowl history 21-0, you quessed it guys, winning the fumble battle 2-0. 

But the league is now down to 4 or 5 teams, Philly easily the best team, Baltimore has the better record but they get out-played in every meaningful area.


We did have one of the more amazing runs seen on this site  in Tennis calling the Grand Slam Finals only , results and props with an unheard of  3 straight years of not losing a single bet . 16-0

Including our incredible  call of  Nadal to beat Fedex at Wimbeldon when Fedex was  on the all-time run of wins, and once again it was every expert under the sun on Fedex .

I'm sure many, many  guys remember those days.


If the Warriors win game 7 it will mark and off the chain 18 of 20 times our favorite has made the championship game in their sport and we have 13 wins in the previous 17 times they made the title game.

The PR's did call the Eagles last season in NFL as our favorite but we passed on them with injury to Wentz  and did not count that in our record.

Want to hear something more insane ? We did pass on 1 of the PR best  teams, Panthers in 2015 who were easily the best team according to the  PR's but we called Seahawks our favorite based on Strength of schedule of Panthers which was very weak, the first and only time we ever used SOS to measure the best team.

Basically the PR's did call  the favorite, it is human error that decides to go agaisnt the advanced metric,   is an insane 18 of 19 times reaching the title game, our only loss was New York Liberty in WNBA when they led by 18 in the 2cd half of a close-out game and could not make a basket from that point on, with even lay-ups rolling around the rim and out,  and Indy came-back to win that game and the next game to move into the final.

I don't think alot of guys are aware of how damn good advanced meterics can be with alot of research and learning how to use the info.


Thinking back guys, it has been 10 long years here on covers, now starting our 11th year.

I  first found covers in the Conference finals in 2008 when we called Celtics to win the title. The very first big play  I called was a best bet on Celtics +5 and ML over Piston in Detroit game 3.

Celtics at that time were 0-6 SU on the road in playoffs having gone to 7 games in round 1 and 2 VS far inferior talent then this Pistons team.

I was about laughed off the site as an unknown making his 1st big call, and the Celtics rolled to the SU win and beating the Pistons in 6 games to make the finals.

There was a guy named blue something who laughed the hardest, never seen him back on the site again.

Over the years there have been many guys like blue.

Went on to Call the Celtics to win the series over the Lakers as one of a very, very few on the site to do so and with most all experts calling for the Kobe led Lakers to win the series, called both games 1 and 2 correct, and won big on all the individual games including a best bet play on Celtic in their monster 40 pt win in a close-out game 6 or what-ever it was.


One of the greatest  calls I've ever made, one sends chills up my spine was calling on another site before covers, 2004 Pistons to win the title before the playoffs started and calling them to win the series over The Shag and Kobe Lakers and correctly calling every game of the series ATS.

When I made that call I was again laughed off the site, and once again those who laughed the loudest, which were a few were never seen on the site again.


I Have some truly great memories and a few bad memories as well of the 10 years I've been on the site, thanks to everyone for all the comments good and bad over the years............................................



 
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Posted: #294

You did the same shitt, Achilles. You posted in numerous threads insinuating Houston Rockets has a chance and when they get blown out, “I told you”. Contradicting douche an_violin

 
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Posted: #295

Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

You did the same shitt, Achilles. You posted in numerous threads insinuating Houston Rockets has a chance and when they get blown out, “I told you”. Contradicting douche

again, you show you lack of iq. Read the write ups. God knows thats what you live for. I said both series were going 7 dingleberry. Leach.

 
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Posted: #296

Monkee: 1 thing that has yet to change and this will be the last ounce of energy I put into you: you have and always will be a leach. You’ve posted less than 3 plays in the your time yet so much to say huh? People will find you in numerous threads begging and asking for insight. It’s too funny. Here’s the kicker: you have still yet to admit to the fact that you’d beg for picks from me. Numerous PMs, thank yous, etc. hey Achilles “what’s the play tonite” yet because I called you out, you got salty. So here we are: you, a leach and me, an a$$hole to the turds. All good.

 
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Posted: #297

Yet when you called me out, I posted a better record in your own thread. Keep em’ coming, chump hahahaha.

I just enjoy this fool pretending to act classy one day and as Claw pointed out, it’s only a matter of WHEN this little fella reverts to his classless self. True colors above as he’s the instigator as always 

 
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Posted: #298

I don’t pretend to be anything bud. I’m a grade A a$$hole to scum. Scum = you. It’s real simple. Claw? Read my post (#13) in this “lean filled thread”. You ever see claw be the bigger person? Nope. Instead after a big nite I get his bratty attempt to put me in my place.  You posted 3 plays? Where is your playoff thread and record Monkeed@ck? Or are you waiting to see what the ref assignments are and what others are picking? Bro, I see you. You know that too.

STILL CANT ADMIT 2 BEGGING FOR MY PICKS

 
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Posted: #299

I will leave the almighty one and his letter above to all his fans about his historic capping and the monkeed@ck fraud who leaches rather than offers anything to this site to themselves. One needs one more than anything and the other just walked on water folks. Sorry if you missed it. Covers is such a wonderful place. And I’m the one who needs covers? Haaaaa! Coming from a leach and one who just put HIMSELF on a pedestal. I can’t keep up with the antics anymore. Priceless.

 
 
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Posted: #300

Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

I will leave the almighty one and his letter above to all his fans about his historic capping and the monkeed@ck fraud who leaches rather than offers anything to this site to themselves. One needs one more than anything and the other just walked on water folks. Sorry if you missed it. Covers is such a wonderful place. And I’m the one who needs covers? Haaaaa! Coming from a leach and one who just put HIMSELF on a pedestal. I can’t keep up with the antics anymore. Priceless.

You just can't leave where you're not wanted can you? It's as simple as not clicking on this thread and do your own thing somewhere else.  I bet you won't do that. You'll probably post everyday in Claw's thread until the playoffs is over and then bump it 100 more times after that. That's just the kind of person you are. an_speak

Let's go Darwin
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