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2018 NBA PLAYOFFS.......................................

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Posted: #51
Good insights claw... 
Can you please give your lines for tomorrow's games? 

Been following since day1 of the playoffs. 
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Before the Warriors won their first title with Curry and Thompson, the same haters and doubters were all underestimating them saying they are nobodys and losers and same old pathetic dubs spurs are th e best blah blah blah...what happened last year has nothing to do with this year...yes they build ontop of previous years and experience, but this group of Raps are the most complete team in the nba...too bad everyone else wont realize this until they are forced to watch toronto playing for a title come june.
And yes, all the people who claim ratings will be down and no one will care are just as clueless as ScriptedTheater and Bob...everyone will indeed watch because it will be historic for a non US team to be in the finals...it will become the most patriotic subliminal finals ever with the NBa machine doing everything in their power to keep Toronto from winning it...and that will be the best tin foil theory ever in history. Raps stand a great shot against Houston, and maybe 25% shot against GS.


Very good point. Many were saying Warriors as a jump shooting team won't win the title as jumping shooting teams don't win the title .

But Warriors were the best team and the best team won which they do quite often, when teams get better they have more success.
 
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Posted: #53
2-1 ATS last night and 1-0 ATS 2 nights ago...................

playoffs to date........................games ---5-1-1 ATS won 7.8 units
                                                totals --- 2-1, won 1.8 units
                                                leans ---2-0-1 ATS 

we're off to a great start, hopefully we keep this train rolling..........

our largest mismatch teams are kill'in it, .........................
 
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Posted: #54
MY LINES........................................game 3's

game 3 teams down 0-2 recieve 4 additional desperation bonus points
series tied 1-1 we do not use my lines , we back teams who we have strong info will win the series, 2 plays  one on  76ers and Jazz in game 3.


76ers - 1.67 over Heat
Pelicans -.97 over Blazers
Spurs -1.7 over Warriors    or Warriors -.21 using PR before injuries .

we have a play on 76ers and a lean on Blazers

according to my lines we have a play on Spurs even if we use the stronger PR for Warriors and with Curry out looks like value on Spurs.

but we pass with Warriors being a largest mismatch team and we ride the Warriors one more time.



76ers -2 over Heat --- 2.2 units
LEAN........Blazers +4 (--115) over Pelicans 


If Embiid were playing we'd have a strong play on 76ers , but only if he were playing all-along with no injury, coming back tonight we still have only small play but looks like he will not be back tonight.

76ers still to good for the Heat to handle, confident they will get a win either game 3 or game 4, we back them again if they lose.

Blazers have a good shot to win SU and force a game 5 back home.
 
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Posted: #55
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS..........................5-0-1 ATS in all games

Warriors -4 over Spurs --- 2.2 units

If Warriors cover here we may pass on game 4, especially if the books adjust the line much higher.

If Warriors lose SU  we up our play game 4. 
 
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Posted: #56
 
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Posted: #57
Just wanted to say thank you for sharing all of your hard work and knowledge. Continued luck to you claw!
 
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Posted: #58
2-0 ATS last night, leans 0-1 ATS.


76ers keep on truck'in with big blowout win. Embiid looked strong as do the 76ers.

Pelicans thriving without Cousins, but the real story is what the hell happened to the Blazers ? Talk about a crash-job, but I still think Blazers will be heard from, line gets jacked way up for game 4 , we'll roll with the Blazers in a possible SU win.


Warriors are, well, the Warriors, a shooting efficiency dream team and our largest mismatch team does it again.

Warriors won every category of mismatch method last season except value which was won by OKC over Rockets, and Warriors went 4-0 SU , 3-1 ATS, failing to cover game 1 then running off 3 straight covers.

This season they open with 3 straight covers, will they falter in game 4 ?

Tough spot for Warriors, leaning at this time to pass on game 4.

If public drives the line up will more then likely pass. 

Public did well last night winning both games with 70% or better on them,76ers and Warriors, the Pelicans/Blazers were 50/50.

Very possible they go down tonight .
 
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Posted: #59
MY LINES.................................................game 3's

Pacers -8.09 over Cavs 
Wiz -1.84 over Raptors
Bucks -4.75 over Celtics.

Wow, looks like great value on Pacers.

Wiz -2 , if line goes to -3 we have a play on Raps

Bucks -6.5, question is, how much is Kyrie worth ?  If he is worth 2.75 points or more looks like value on Bucks at -6.5 or less.

Celtics are not that good, keep playing over their heads, eventually those kind of things come to an end, and I see the end is very near, we may take action on the Bucks, but let's wait out the line and see what the public wants to do with it.
 
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Posted: #60
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS..............................6-0-1 ATS in all games played

Pacers PK over Cavs --- 2.2 units .......................game 3



 
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Posted: #61
In regards to Warriors, not sure whether they will falter in G4 or not but I did watch the game and I saw spurs miss open look after open look, not a talented team but 99% of shooters in the NBA should be making open looks at a high clip. If they get similar looks in G4 they probably are good for 110 points. 
 
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Posted: #62
Good luck, Claw
 
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Posted: #63

GL. On Pacers big. 

 
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Posted: #64

GL claw, and keep on rolling

i agree raps game will be tight, maybe this is a good game for live betting 

 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Posted: Apr. 20, 2018 - 8:26 AM ET "Quote" LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS..............................6-0-1 ATS in all games playedPacers PK over Cavs --- 2.2 units .......................game 3

I like the Pacers as well...Good Luck an_fight

 
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Posted: #66
BOL sir, Excellent start
 
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Posted: #67
people keep overvaluing Bucks and undervaluing Celts all season long...82 game sample size tells a different story

keep up the great capping...this is a very good thread 
Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES.................................................game 3's

Pacers -8.09 over Cavs 
Wiz -1.84 over Raptors
Bucks -4.75 over Celtics.

Wow, looks like great value on Pacers.

Wiz -2 , if line goes to -3 we have a play on Raps

Bucks -6.5, question is, how much is Kyrie worth ?  If he is worth 2.75 points or more looks like value on Bucks at -6.5 or less.

Celtics are not that good, keep playing over their heads, eventually those kind of things come to an end, and I see the end is very near, we may take action on the Bucks, but let's wait out the line and see what the public wants to do with it.
the part i have highlighted, did you mean -4.5 or less? it appears to be a typo unless i am not understanding something?
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Posted: #69
I believe he means the Bux have value at -4.5 or less.
FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:

the part i have highlighted, did you mean -4.5 or less? it appears to be a typo unless i am not understanding something?

Bucks -6.5 is correct, remember, if Kyrie is worth 2.75 points we need to deduct 2.75 points from Celtics rating, which puts my line without Kyrie at Bucks -7.5, with a 1 point difference we have a play.

LEAN --- Celtics tonight. Wait-ut the line.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS..............................6-0-1 ATS in all games played

Pacers PK over Cavs --- 2.2 units .......................game 3





Raptors +1 over Wiz --- 2.2 units 
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


Bucks -6.5 is correct, remember, if Kyrie is worth 2.75 points we need to deduct 2.75 points from Celtics rating, which puts my line without Kyrie at Bucks -7.5, with a 1 point difference we have a play.

LEAN --- Celtics tonight. Wait-ut the line.


Geez louise, did I put Celtics, oh my goodness, was supposed to be Bucks.

Sorry for all the confusion, what I meant was Bucks and we should of had a play on them based on over-reaction to games 1 and 2 when the line was bet down from 6.5 to 4.5.

Last night was tough as I got home late, 7:45, had a number of things to do, with so many games coming everyday is tough sometimes to follow everything needed.

I need to do things very fast almost without thinking sometimes. Happens a couple of times every year.

What I meant by Bucks -6.5 was even had the number stayed at -6.5 we still had value on the Bucks, but the number dropped to 4.5 which is really great value on Bucks.

I did not mean to take Bucks at -6.5, always grab best available line, just that even at -6.5 the value was on the Bucks.

As I said, Celtics playing way over their heads ands these things eventually end, yepper, last night they did.

Sorry about that, big mistake on my part putting lean Celtics, still can't believe I did that......................
 
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Posted: #73
Last night 1-1 ATS, lost .2 units, 2 nights ago, 2-0 ATS, won 4 units


Playoffs to Date .......... games .....7-2-1 ATS --- won 11.6 units
                                     totals ........2-1, won 1.8 units
                                     leans ........2-0-1

I didn't count the Bucks game last night as writeup was clearly on Bucks but I posted Celtics, son of a gun, we actually should of had a play and another win on Bucks.

We missed 2 plays now, one on Warriors game 2 and another on Bucks. Could be 9-2-1 at this time. Oh well, we move on.

Very hard to pass up wins, never get those back. Really aggravating to say the least. 
 
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Posted: #74
I went by your initial write up which, imho, said take Bux when the line dropped way down to -4.5. Didn't see your C's lean post. No worries!   
FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
 
 
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Posted: #75
MY LINES.........................................game 3's

76ers -1.67 over Heat............................game 4

Pelicans -4.97 over Blazers 
T-wolves -2.41 over Rockets
Jazz -6.71 over OKC

Great value on T-wolves and Jazz, we don't use my lines in close-out games on Pelicans, but use other info, in this case info sides with Blazers when combined with my lines looks very good.

LEANS............................

Heat +3.5 over 76ers
Blazers +7 over Pelicans
T-Wolves +6 (-115) over Rockets


Jazz  over OKC --- 2.2 units, wait-out the line, see if we can get -4.


T-Wolves are a very strong home team but dreadful on the road, huge difference in their play.  We have a huge difference between my lines and actual line, crazy big.

Lots of experts calling out  Karl-anthony Towns as soft, weak and whatever else,  he and this team will be fired up today, and they play so much better at home then on the road. 

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