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2018 NBA PLAYOFFS.......................................

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Posted: #76
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS....................................

No plays today.

3 games sunday but we likely pass on Warriors coming off 3 ATS wins and the line jacked-up.

Powerhouse teams like the Warriors are great plays in close-out games but the worst case is coming off 3 ATS wins.

When we look at Pelicans/Blazers in a close-out game, Pelicans not really a powerhouse team and that matchup is the closest matchup of all 8 series according to our 5 indicators,  in these spots much better off taking the team to not close the series  out.

These are typical spots where a team can come-back and win 2 and sometimes even 3 games and we are getting far more points as books like to jack-up the line in close-out games.

Pelicans also coming in off 3 ATS wins, not a good spot to play the Pelicans, great spot to back the Blazers, very possible SU win.


Blazers +7 over Pelicans --- 2.2 units

This year we concentrate more on picking great spots with my lines instead of just backing every game with a 1 pt difference as we have done in the past.
 
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Posted: #77
Absolutely love your write-ups!   
FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
 
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Posted: #78
Portland just needs to make shots, they're getting the right looks.

They're just  15-54 on open looks (closest defender 4-6 feet) 8-33 of those are 3s.

Their season average is 40.3% and 35.2% on 3s alone.

They're also just 24-70 on wide open looks (defender 6+ feet away) 22-58 of those are 3s which is about average but they're 2-12 on open 2s. Just crazy bad.

NOP will be exposed if they advanced past this round as they are giving up huge numbers of good looks, Portland has just sucked.


 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:



Geez louise, did I put Celtics, oh my goodness, was supposed to be Bucks.

Sorry for all the confusion, what I meant was Bucks and we should of had a play on them based on over-reaction to games 1 and 2 when the line was bet down from 6.5 to 4.5.

Last night was tough as I got home late, 7:45, had a number of things to do, with so many games coming everyday is tough sometimes to follow everything needed.

I need to do things very fast almost without thinking sometimes. Happens a couple of times every year.

What I meant by Bucks -6.5 was even had the number stayed at -6.5 we still had value on the Bucks, but the number dropped to 4.5 which is really great value on Bucks.

I did not mean to take Bucks at -6.5, always grab best available line, just that even at -6.5 the value was on the Bucks.

As I said, Celtics playing way over their heads ands these things eventually end, yepper, last night they did.

Sorry about that, big mistake on my part putting lean Celtics, still can't believe I did that......................
that's why i asked that. lol. i was like, hmmm that doesn't make much sense? regardless i put 2 units on it. line looked great to me! best of luck today
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Posted: #80

Road teams cover today.

PHI -3

POR +7

HOU -5.5

OKC +4.5

gl

 
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Posted: #81
Jazz -5 over OKC --- 2.2 units
 
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Posted: #82
1-1 ATS, lost.2 units
leans --- 1-1

76ers lost by half a point in which had we waited out the line was a push

76ers look very strong, VS Raptors if both get there would be about an even matchup, considering Embiid only played 63 games and both Lowery and Derozen played almost all the games might make 76ers look like a small favorite.

Downside to 76ers is their shooting efficiency when we include 2 pt, 3pt, FT and TO, they out-shoot opps by 2.08%, Raps 3.5%, past champs are 2.5% or better.

Teams 1% better then opps would normally win series if they are about even.

76ers send their opps to the FT line far more then they go and they shoot a poor % because of Simmons and they lose the turnover battle fairly big, they need to fix those things, if they can  they could beat Raps and possibly win the title if Rockets some how beat the Warriors.

Very close to about 50% that Raps or 76ers would beat the Rockets in the final, if Rockets   can get there.

Rockets would likely need some injuries to Warriors stars to beat them or Curry coming back less then 100% but the way things seem to be going with Warriors, now Durant sprains his ankle although he will be ok it appears anyway, Warriors seem to be getting some bad breaks with injuries.

Blazers actually played pretty well almost 53% shooting but Davis and Holiday went off, NO shot 57% , we lost by 1 pt, I did not see the end of game whether NO made the last shot or 2 or Blazers made a last second shot to make score look closer then it was.

Anyone see that ???

Wolves were strong throughout, Towns did not shot all that well but did have alot of rebs, Butler came up big.

Jazz played very well as expected and put themselves in great position to win series.. We back the Jazz again game 4.

Public won again on a big % game of over 70 %  on 76ers, that is 3-1 on 70% or better  games in past 3 days.

Then they won with NO, but as we can expect the public to go, they lost the final 2 games of the day.


 
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Posted: #83
MY LINES........................................ game 4's

Bucks -.75 over Celtics
Warriors -2.3 over Spurs
Raptors -2.16 over Wiz
Pacers -8.09 over Cavs

With injuries to C's we pass 
Warriors we do not use my line on closeout games, 
no play Raptors unless line drops to Raps -1 or less then we lean Raps or goes to 3.5 or higher then we lean Wiz


LEAN --- Pacers +1 over Cavs
 
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Posted: #84
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS ................................

Raptors -1.5 over Wiz --- 3.3 units
Pacers +1 over Cavs --- 2.2 units

off a SU lose we up our play on Raptors 

Pacers in a great spot to win series, but they are off 3 ATS wins , typically not the best spot for this method, however  they really need to hold home court and get this win to really grab control of this series , this is the one exception we will ride with teams off 3 ATS wins and the fact they are far better then the line suggests. They might just cover my line of -8.09. 

 If they do win  we will pass on Pacers in game 4 coming off 4 ATS wins and the incentive shifts to Cavs going back home in desperation mode and Pacers may very well relax and settle for shots instead of being aggressive and attacking the basket.


Warriors off 3 ATS wins we pass on this spot.

We saw the T-wolves roll yesterday with a 13 game win difference between home and road record, 3rd largest, Spurs have an insane 19 game difference, largest of any team.


 
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Posted: #85
I hope NOP get overrated in the next round. Blazers had more open looks than any other team in the playoffs but they totally clanged it until today when they were just outgunned in a track meet. NOP offense is good but their defense is still terrible. GSW is pretty much a nightmare match up for them because you can be sure they'll knock down open 3s at a high clip.

Raps have been turning the ball over a lot, they need to fix that and take more shots. Wiz shot nearly 60% from inside the arc which won't happen again. Both teams shot a bit above average from behind the arc but Toronto was 8% below their average on 2 point shots.

It's hard to see anything but another score in the 220s bar an awful night by one or both teams.

I think Cavs will win game 4 and the series. Feel things are being blown out of proportion, Cavs are getting more open looks than Indy but shooting terribly. Think they had something like 13 more open shots than Indy in game 3 but shot at such a low clip. Cavs defense has actually been very good, their defensive eff % is 1.01 for the series way down from 1.09 in the regular season. It's their high octane offense failing them and as I said they're getting the looks just not nailing them yet. The series had been played at an absolute crawl, I don't know why Cavs aren't pushing the pace. They're averaging 76 shots a game, down from 85 in the regular season. Kyle Korver mentioned in his post game interview they need to pick up the pace and that playing with pace is a mindset, which is very true. I think there is a myth that one team can dictate pace which is totally wrong, what happens is the opposition gets lulled into playing at the same pace of the opposition which is a mindset thing exactly as Korver said. However I have not heard Tyronn Lue mention a thing about pace which is a big concern as this team clearly lacks leadership and chemistry, it's not like GSW where they could play pretty well without a coach. When Lue gives orders they listen, like LBJ in game 2 but yeah he's said nothing which is ridiculous, he might not even be aware.
 
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Posted: #86
Philly has free reign in this Miami series. Miami May be the worst team in the playoffs imo and what’s sad is that going into game 5, the series should easily be tied. Philly hasn’t had to work at all in this series in that Miami’s attention to detail is putrid. Spoelstra is getting outcoached which has to be embarrassing considering brown is on the other bench and guys like Whiteside are a waste of space. In game 3, Miami literally handed the game away because of things they did to themselves. When you force over 25 turnovers, have over 50 points in the paint, go for 17 steals and miss 12 free throws when you only get 22-23, you beat yourself and that’s what Miami did.  Philly is a good team but I’m telling you, IF they play the raptors they will have to earn it. Guys like reddick and Covington will be forced to guard and they’ll have to actually take the raptors bench seriously unlike know miamis. My guess is that Simmons will be forced to hit a jump shot on a consistent basis thus putting pressure on him from the start. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen so much hype around a player who doesn’t have a jump shot from 12 feet beyond; it’s quite comical. He’s a very good player but he has some glaring issues. Are the raptors the type of team to expose his inabilities? I would think but if they allow him free reign like Miami has, philly could force the upset. Toronto has to get out of the first round first and I see that but it’s not gonna be easy. I’m hoping we see Toronto play them because I’d be interested to see how Toronto approaches the series given that with all their experience and Philly gave none, you’d think Toronto would make hebnecessary adjustments to shut down phillys perimeter game. Hey, if the jags can make it to afc championship and the eagles can win with a backup, philly can for sure win another series; I hope not but it’s definitely possible. 
 
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Posted: #87
0-2 ATS, lost 5.5 units
leans 0-1


 
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Posted: #88
MY LINES...............................

Rockets -1.59 over T-Wolves
Jazz -6.71 over OKC
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES...............................

Rockets -1.59 over T-Wolves
Jazz -6.71 over OKC

LEAN --- T-Wolves +5.5
LEAN --- Jazz -5 (-115)
 
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Posted: #90
We ride the Jazz based on info of winning the series in our 5 indicators 

Jazz need to grab hold of this series and hold home court. 

Jazz -5 -115) over OKC ---  2.2 units
 
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Posted: #91
What do you make of Westbrook’s comments about Rubio? Do you think that backfires or do you think this is the “spark” OKC needs?  I’m not a big bulletin board guy but the comment defintelu should be weighed. OKCs “big three” has been non existent in the 4th so do you think there is some pride here with them to show up? We can say what we want about OKC as they are very inconsistent but I think we can both agree here that if these 3 didn’t show up tonite when it counts most, it would be a bit surprising. Not saying they win but you have to expect a better performance. I feel there are a few angles that can be played here tonite that support OKC in certain moments of the game. Maybe first quarter or first half? Just interested to hear your thoughts considering you are a solely a numbers guy. 
 
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Posted: #92

Normally these type things favor the better team which is Utah as it will give extra motivation to not only Rubio but the team as well, he can try to  light a spark under the lesser team. The lesser team can be all the  motivated they want but if the better team comes in motivated they should get the job done.

Over the years players making guarantees do not work out all that often, maybe Westbrook can shut-down Rubio as he is the better player but to do so may take attention away from his total team defense. 

Kobe guarnateed Lakers would win a game in Detroit during 2004 Finals and bring series back to LA but Detroit rolled them 3-0 and in process became the first team to win 3 straight home games since league went to the 2-3-2 format in finals. Many other silly guarnatees that failed over the years.

But when these players get proven wrong they always fall back on, I was trying to motivate the team, they do not man up  about  being wrong. But if they happen to be right then  they take all the credit as though they are genius.

 
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Posted: #93

Jazz down too -4.  Still like?

 
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Posted: #94

 games --- 1-0 ATS, won 2 units

leans 1-1 

 

Jazz roll again, with OKC just dreadful shooting team, ranked 18th in FG % in league  and dead last in playoffs in FG % differential.

They shoot 39.3% and a horrendous 19.2% on 3's with the big 3 going 2 of 18 or 11.1%. 

Likely OKC will bounce back at home in game 5 as Jazz put in alot of energy and effort to win 3 straight games to gain home court with the split in OKC and hold home court. Jazz likely wrap up series game 6 back at home.

 

Rockets starting to play much better, likely wrap up series in game 5 with T-Wolves dreadful on the road.

 
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Posted: #95

MY LINES..................................

 

Celtics -7.25 over Bucks

76ers -9.67 over Heat

Warriors -10.3 over Spurs

 

we don't use my lines in closeout games and we pass on Celtics with injuries. I would give the Bucks a good shot to win SU as Celtics not that good and have been playing over their heads   but will pass on the game.

 
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Posted: #96

LARGEST MISMATCHES..............................8-4 ATS in all games

 

Warriors -11.5 over Spurs --- 3.3 units

 

we up our play off SU loss.

 
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Posted: #97

CLOSE-OUT GAMES.............................0-0

76ers -10 (-105) over Heat --- 2.1 units

Warriors -11.5 over Spurs --- 3.3 units

we up our play on Warriors off a failed close-out loss.

we now have to win 6 units on Warriors , our largest play of playoffs thus far.

 
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Posted: #98

Warriors/Spurs OVER 204 --- 2.2 units

 
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Posted: #99

games .....1-1 ATS, lost 4.6 units

leans ..........0-1, lost 2.2 units

 

76ers keep rolling and look pretty impressive.

Warriors were in great position going into 4th up 14, son of a gun , they could not get the cover and overall did not shoot very well, a big win was looking very possible but they could not make a shot.

 

we'll try to bounce back tonight.

 
 
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Posted: #100

MY LINES................................ game 5's

 

Raps -10.16 over Wiz 

Pacers -.09 over Cavs

Rockets -9.59 over T-Wolves

OKC -1.47 over Jazz

we don't use my lines in close-out games, 2 games tonight Rockets and Jazz going for close-out.

LEAN...........Raps -7 over Wiz

LEAN...........Pacers -6.5 over Cavs

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