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2018 NBA PLAYOFFS.......................................

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Posted: #126
Games........ 2-1 ATS, won 2,85 units
Totals ..........1-0 , won 2 units

Leans on my lines.............2-0


 
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Posted: #127
Largest Mismatch teams keep on rolling.......................Pacers 5-1 ATS,

 Raps 3-2-1 ATS or 4-2 ATS if you got the late closing line which we did not.

Warriors 3-2 ATS but we did pass on  game 4 with Warriors off 3 ATS wins and went 3-1 ATS but we failed to post game 2, so 2-1 ATS on posted plays.

We are 10-4-1 ATS on posted plays, should of been 11-4-1 ATS on plays we wanted to make.

11-5-1 ATS IN ALL games 

Great round for our largest mismatch teams, we have 1 game left with Pacers in game 7..
 
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Posted: #128
Pacers just crushed Cavs game 6, Cavs could not match their energy and effort. 

Look at wins by Cavs, won by 3 pts, 3 pts and 4 pts, Pacers in those games with a chance, Pacers wins by 34, 18, and 2 pts.Cavs had a chance in only 1 game while Pacers had a chance in all 3 Cavs wins.

LBJ lost a game 1 for first time in round 1 and now he lost a close-out game for the first time in round 1, and by a huge blow-out to-boot.

That info does not bode well for Cavs if they should win game 7 VS a far better team the next round. 

They just might get embarrassed pretty bad, it is setting up for a shellacking.

Pacers coming off 2  ATS wins and a 34 pt blow-out win is not the best spot to back Pacers, If Cavs do pull out the win and cover which could happen based on the spot for Pacers this only sets-up the next round even better on Raps.

As now many will be talking how LBJ is to clutch in do or die situations and the talk will begin on how it is so tough to knock LBJ out. which will serve the Raps very well.


Our Largest Mismatch teams next round would be Raps over the Cavs in 4 of the 5 key indicators if the Cavs should win game 7.

The other indicator will have the  mismatch team will be 76ers over either C's or Bucks.

76ers are locked-in regardless who wins the 2 game 7's.

If Pacers win we have Raps, 76ers , Warriors  as our largest mismatch teams of 2cd round.

If Cavs win then Raps and 76ers .


Value mismatch which had the only losing record ATS in first round   last year on OKC at 2-3 ATS, bounced back big this year on Pacers and is 5-1 at this point.

Value tells us if a teams point margin matches it's play on the court, Cavs were the worst team by far and one of worst we have recorded in past years.


 
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Posted: #129
MY LINES...............................

Celtics -7.25 over Bucks

If Kyrie were worth 2.5 pts then we'd have C's -4.75 , we pass on game 7 with injuries.

Bucks have a great shot to win SU as Celtics are not that good but continue to play over their heads, as we talked about these thing don't go on forever, would not be at all surprised to see either team win SU, but we pass on this game as to risky..



Warriors -10.02 over Pelicans
Warriors - 11.93 if we use stats before injuries hit key players

With Curry the line should be around at least -11


Lean Warriors -9 over Pelicans..............game 1
 
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Posted: #130
Largest Mismatch TEAMS......................

Possible Warriors could be one of our teams and we do like Warriors in game 1 .............

Warriors -9 over Pelicans --- 2.2 units.............game 1

Pacers +5.5 over Cavs --- 1.1 units................game 7.

we lower our play on Pacers based on the spot.


 
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Posted: #131
Good stuff Claw. Thank you!
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MISMATCHES................................................

mismatch in each series averaged over the 5 categories we use.

Warriors by 3.77 over Spurs.............we used Warriors end of season stats
76ers by 3.1 over the Heat.....of course with Ebiid in the lineup.
Raptors 2.69 over Wizards
Rockets 2.08 over T-wolves
Pacers by 2.08 over Cavs
Jazz by 1.67 over OKC
C's by 1.32 over Bucks...... with Kyrie in the line-up
Pelicans by 1.25 over Blazers.... with Cousins in the line-up.



The info seems to suggest the possible 1st round upsets are Jazz and Pacers

Pelicans without Cousins we pass on calling for the upset.

C's a no. 2 seed are the 7th rated mismatch even with Kyrie in the line-up for far majority of games, possible 1st round upset with the injuries the C's have.



Jazz to win series over OKC (+115).....................3 units to win 3.45 units
Pacers to win series  over Cavs (+510).................1 unit to win 5.1 units








Thus far the ave mismatch in our 5 key stats is 6-0 at winning the series  

Our 2 largest mismatches in ave 5 stats, both over ave 3 per stat  won easily 4-1.

Our 2 smallest mismatches , both under 2 in 5 stats  one goes to 7 games and the other was a 4-0 beat-down by Pelicans.

Pelicans are the only anomaly based on the info.

There will always be exception most of the time, but over-all the info was pretty good at calling each series.

The question now is, are the Pelicans better then the info is giving them credit or are thy nothing more then an abomaly and will return back to their ave play this round.


Many will over-react to their first round play, we do not over-react but stay the course with the info.


AVE of 2CD ROUND MISMATCHES IN 5 KEY CATEGORIES..................

Warriors by 3.18 over Pelicans
Rockets by .57 over Jazz


Once again Warriors are over 3, Rockets and Jazz very evenly matched.

We'll find out if Pelicans are nothing more then a 1st round anomaly or they are much better then the stats say they are. And it all gets started tonight.

Keep in mind, Pelicans off 4 ATS wins and Warriors off 2 ATS losses, far more likely both teams have a regression with Warriors coming out on top.

Maybe we can't read alot into game 1, unless Pelicans win SU or are in a very close down to the wire game. 

I suspect the Rockets will find a way to win the series, they are far better in shooting efficiency diff (2 pt, 3pt, FT, TO) , by 1.64%,  over 1% is alot, over 1.5% is really alot but Jazz much better in FG % Diff by 1.5 %, which may be a bit flawed as Rockets take so many 3's which lowers their FG % but raises shooting efficiency.

The downside to alot of 3's being it can be much harder to be consistent game to game as you live by the 3 die by the 3.

If Rockets hit their 3's fairly consistent they shouldn't have much problem winning this series but when it comes to 3's that is much easier said then done.


But the over-all info does  suggest the Jazz might have a decent chance to pull the upset.

We pass on any futures action in this  series  but would LEAN Rockets  to win series.



 
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Posted: #133
good job claw
 
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Posted: #134

For now you proved me wrong 
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:



Thus far the ave mismatch in our 5 key stats is 6-0 at winning the series  

Our 2 largest mismatches in ave 5 stats, both over ave 3 per stat  won easily 4-1.

Our 2 smallest mismatches , both under 2 in 5 stats  one goes to 7 games and the other was a 4-0 beat-down by Pelicans.

Pelicans are the only anomaly based on the info.

There will always be exception most of the time, but over-all the info was pretty good at calling each series.

The question now is, are the Pelicans better then the info is giving them credit or are thy nothing more then an abomaly and will return back to their ave play this round.


Many will over-react to their first round play, we do not over-react but stay the course with the info.


AVE of 2CD ROUND MISMATCHES IN 5 KEY CATEGORIES..................

Warriors by 3.18 over Pelicans
Rockets by .57 over Jazz


Once again Warriors are over 3, Rockets and Jazz very evenly matched.

We'll find out if Pelicans are nothing more then a 1st round anomaly or they are much better then the stats say they are. And it all gets started tonight.

Keep in mind, Pelicans off 4 ATS wins and Warriors off 2 ATS losses, far more likely both teams have a regression with Warriors coming out on top.

Maybe we can't read alot into game 1, unless Pelicans win SU or are in a very close down to the wire game. 

I suspect the Rockets will find a way to win the series, they are far better in shooting efficiency diff (2 pt, 3pt, FT, TO) , by 1.64%,  over 1% is alot, over 1.5% is really alot but Jazz much better in FG % Diff by 1.5 %, which may be a bit flawed as Rockets take so many 3's which lowers their FG % but raises shooting efficiency.

The downside to alot of 3's being it can be much harder to be consistent game to game as you live by the 3 die by the 3.

If Rockets hit their 3's fairly consistent they shouldn't have much problem winning this series but when it comes to 3's that is much easier said then done.


But the over-all info does  suggest the Jazz might have a decent chance to pull the upset.

We pass on any futures action in this  series  but would LEAN Rockets  to win series.




Claw why don't you look at eFG% differential which accounts for 3 point shots being worth more
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:


Claw why don't you look at eFG% differential which accounts for 3 point shots being worth more

That is shooting efficiency which counts 2pt , 3pt shots and FT and TO.

Many sites only add 2 pt and 3 pt shots in together such as eFG %, but very important to add in FT and TO in with those and that is what I do with shooting efficiency.


FG % is important as well , as it tells us how consistent a team is game to game.

FG % as a single stat has the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value.
 
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Posted: #137
We did it again last night.................game......1-0 ATS, won 2 units
                                                         leans ......1-0

Pelicans took a beat-down, not the best of spots for them, we'll see how they respond, I suspect Warriors going up 2-0 in this series. 
 
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Posted: #138
Nice job claw.. it seems it is rare for you to play totals...

Whatt took you to decide to play game 6 cleveland indiana game totals.

What is your insights in todays total play... i cant still figure it out
Goy9 0 last9 bsktball. Until, Loss 1 in rehab. See you in 2025. mainstrollfault.Outta here
 
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Posted: #139
MY LINES........................................

Pacers -.09 over Cavs 
Rockets - 6.77 over Jazz

LEAN ................Pacers +5.5 over Cavs 

Jazz +11.5 over Rockets --- 2.2 units
 
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Posted: #140
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS..............................

Pacers play all-ready in at +5.5 to win 1 unit.
 
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Posted: #141
Bol theclaw. 

No totals for today? 
Goy9 0 last9 bsktball. Until, Loss 1 in rehab. See you in 2025. mainstrollfault.Outta here
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by Miracling2:

Nice job claw.. it seems it is rare for you to play totals...

Whatt took you to decide to play game 6 cleveland indiana game totals.

What is your insights in todays total play... i cant still figure it out

I had my eye on that series for some time as all games were going way under the total. Only a matter of time finding the right spot to take the over.

The book opened game 1..... 216.5 , game 1 and 2 went under 200, and the line kept dropping, we did make 1 play on the over and lost.

The book opened game 3, first game in INDY 208.5 and the game still goes under 200.

What seperated game 6 was with every lowered line the public bet it back up taking the over,   game 6 changed all that,  when the public bet the opening line which was the lowest opening line in series and public now bet it down finally taking the under,  strong indication the game was going over. 

I was very confident that over would come in but the back-ups almost lost it with the big blow-out lead, the back-ups could not make shots for many possesions. 

I had plans to post that play about 1 hour before game time but forgot it untill the pre-game came on , bummer for sure.
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


I had my eye on that series for some time as all games were going way under the total. Only a matter of time finding the right spot to take the over.

The book opened game 1..... 216.5 , game 1 and 2 went under 200, and the line kept dropping, we did make 1 play on the over and lost.

The book opened game 3, first game in INDY 208.5 and the game still goes under 200.

What seperated game 6 was with every lowered line the public bet it back up taking the over,   game 6 changed all that,  when the public bet the opening line which was the lowest opening line in series and public now bet it down finally taking the under,  strong indication the game was going over. 

I was very confident that over would come in but the back-ups almost lost it with the big blow-out lead, the back-ups could not make shots for many possesions. 

I had plans to post that play about 1 hour before game time but forgot it untill the pre-game came on , bummer for sure.

You got it right on games 6 theclaw, nice spot you saw there... but this game 7 is hard to predict the totals...

Line is at the lowest... 199...
Goy9 0 last9 bsktball. Until, Loss 1 in rehab. See you in 2025. mainstrollfault.Outta here
 
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Posted: #144
I am also waiting for the line to move on the totals...

But still cant see a lot of movement..
Goy9 0 last9 bsktball. Until, Loss 1 in rehab. See you in 2025. mainstrollfault.Outta here
 
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Posted: #145
GL claw and thanks
 
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Posted: #146
love all the work you do. thanks 
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by MoreGeezer:

Hmm i am following you for a while and i think you 're great,you have a great system that allows you to rank a team in i have to say a greatly appropiate matter.But you have to admit that things change,The cavs are not the same team of the reagular season...not with lebron in win mode and the defense stepping up.Your numbers on them are wrong..and they would be even worse if they had a coach up to the job.
If he played a center(Zizic and thompson) to start with they would be a better team for example.
In any case,what am is saying is that you're leaving too much psycology out of the equation. 


You bring up a good point, yes you can use different angles like psycology and such, the problem is you then get into opinion/perception based info and we do not do that here.

Many guys have tried to beat this info over the years with opinions and such other angles  and many, many have lost, but some have won, just because you win 1 time is meaningless, it is about the long run.

I doubt very many have beat the info using opinion over the long run.


Under what critera are you saying the info is wrong ?

As of game 5 when you posted  the info is 4-1 ATS, my lines is 3-1 ATS, the info has been proven to be overwelmingly correct.

You can make a case if the Pacers lose game 6 that the info was wrong about the series winner, but here is the problem with that.

The info is 7-0 at predicting the 8 series so far,even at 7-1 = 87.5 % the info is very, very correct over the long run.

Your picking out the only series that lost and you waited untill the Cavs were ahead 3-2 in which they have roughly a 80% chance to win the series to post the info was wrong.

With Pacers ahead 1-0 and 2-1 you were nowhere to be seen, had the Pacers been up 3-2 chances are you would be nowhere to be seen, well, anyone can pick a team to win the series after being up 3-2 and be right 80 % of the time.

But I did not have the advantage  of waiting till after game 5 to make that call, I made the call before any games were played and could be 100 % or 87.5 % at worst, the info was proven overwelmingly correct.

So unless the system goes 100 % you can wait untill some team falls behind 3-2 then come on the thread and say the info is wrong, well yea, it won't be 100 % but it will be 87.5 % over the long run which is what needs to be understood.
 
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Posted: #148
Looking at that Houston box score under in G2 looks good again. Houston play at a really slow pace these days, they shot a crazy 53% from behind the arc but Jazz actually did well at limiting their 3s (not surprising they're ranked very highly in 3 pt defense).

On the other hand Utah actually shot 57% on their 2 pt shoots but only 31.8% on their 3s. Doubt they shoot that high on their 2s again and if they shot their average on 3s they'd have only made one more. 

Other way in Pels game, over looks great. G1 was on track for a huge score but the 2nd half had less than 100 points.

Pels love a fast game and all the talk is that they'll continue this is G2. 

GSW shot slightly below average from the field, NOP way below and they only made 9 free throws. Only problem is a potentially rusty Curry but the ceiling on this game is probably in the 250s.
 
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Posted: #149
Realised rockets only shot 40% on their twos, so I'd say Jazz are in big trouble. 
 
 
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Posted: #150
1-1 ATS, lost 1.2 units


Pacers off a big win, not the best of spots but they did get the cover with that 3 at the end.

Cavs attacked the basket while Pacers settled for jump shots, even with LBJ out Cavs built on the lead because of it.

Cavs continued to attack the basket getting fouls while Pacers continued to shoot jump shots.

LBJ was off the hook carrying the Cavs, but he did not have a triple double , only 9 rebs and 7 assists so I quess he did not play well.

Jeff Van Gundy hit that nail square on the head in game 6 when Oladipo was 2 assists short of a triple double and he says, Oladipo didn't have a good game unless he gets 2 more assists and how silly/ meaningless that talk is.

What made LBJ's game incredible was his 64% shooting from the field on 25 attempts and 15 FT's and 2 of 3 on 3's, he was off the hook shooting the ball

Coming up short by 1 reb and 3 assists is complete nonsense and silly stuff.

In game 1 of 2013 finals when Heat lost 92-88 to Spurs LBJ was 7 of 16, 43.8%, 1 of 5 on 3'3 , 3 of 4 at the line but he had 18 rebs and 10 assists.

He had a triple double but the Heat lost the game because he shot the ball poorly, had few attempts and did not get to the line, but what some experts want you to believe , because he got double rebs and assist somehow he was great.

He was great at rebounding for sure and assists but was poor at shooting the ball, attacking the basket and getting to the line, he is not better then his game 7 performances because of a silly triple double.

Triple doubles have value for what they measure, they do not measure who is the better player or who contributed more in a game.
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