Looking at that Houston box score under in G2 looks good again. Houston play at a really slow pace these days, they shot a crazy 53% from behind the arc but Jazz actually did well at limiting their 3s (not surprising they're ranked very highly in 3 pt defense).
On the other hand Utah actually shot 57% on their 2 pt shoots but only 31.8% on their 3s. Doubt they shoot that high on their 2s again and if they shot their average on 3s they'd have only made one more.
Other way in Pels game, over looks great. G1 was on track for a huge score but the 2nd half had less than 100 points.
Pels love a fast game and all the talk is that they'll continue this is G2.
GSW shot slightly below average from the field, NOP way below and they only made 9 free throws. Only problem is a potentially rusty Curry but the ceiling on this game is probably in the 250s.
Your not considering that teams play above or below averages, Jazz could play above average and make 2 or 3 more 3's that is 6 to 9 additional pts while the Rockets can shoot 33% on 3's, that be 7 less 3's, that is 21 pts.
Rockets ave is only around 36-37 % so shooting slightly under their ave is not only possible it is expected at some point, that does not even take into consideration they can and have shoot below 30% many times.
So granted Jazz may not shoot 57% on 2's again and Rockets shoot only 40% but a simple regression on 3's can produce alot of points for Jazz.
And at some point we almost certainly will see this happen, unless the Rockets just go off on 3's the entire series, which is low probability but not impossible.
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Quote Originally Posted by simple3:
Looking at that Houston box score under in G2 looks good again. Houston play at a really slow pace these days, they shot a crazy 53% from behind the arc but Jazz actually did well at limiting their 3s (not surprising they're ranked very highly in 3 pt defense).
On the other hand Utah actually shot 57% on their 2 pt shoots but only 31.8% on their 3s. Doubt they shoot that high on their 2s again and if they shot their average on 3s they'd have only made one more.
Other way in Pels game, over looks great. G1 was on track for a huge score but the 2nd half had less than 100 points.
Pels love a fast game and all the talk is that they'll continue this is G2.
GSW shot slightly below average from the field, NOP way below and they only made 9 free throws. Only problem is a potentially rusty Curry but the ceiling on this game is probably in the 250s.
Your not considering that teams play above or below averages, Jazz could play above average and make 2 or 3 more 3's that is 6 to 9 additional pts while the Rockets can shoot 33% on 3's, that be 7 less 3's, that is 21 pts.
Rockets ave is only around 36-37 % so shooting slightly under their ave is not only possible it is expected at some point, that does not even take into consideration they can and have shoot below 30% many times.
So granted Jazz may not shoot 57% on 2's again and Rockets shoot only 40% but a simple regression on 3's can produce alot of points for Jazz.
And at some point we almost certainly will see this happen, unless the Rockets just go off on 3's the entire series, which is low probability but not impossible.
Brown looks doubtful, he had 2cd most shot attempts in regular season although very close to the 3rd, 4th and 5th most shot attempts, all pretty even and 2cd in scoring as he was 2cd in scoring in playoffs just 2 pts total behind Horford and 2 pts total ahead of Rozier.
He was also 2cd in usage in playoffs behind Morris amoung the starters.
The public is on a 3-1 run, and are 63% on Celtics, 3-1 run is not all that great but would look for public to go down tonight which works well with our play on 76ers.
If public does win tonight then already shaping up for tommorrow for a win for us. Public will not survive 3-0 over the next 2 nights and go on a 6-1 run , very unlikely.
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Brown looks doubtful, he had 2cd most shot attempts in regular season although very close to the 3rd, 4th and 5th most shot attempts, all pretty even and 2cd in scoring as he was 2cd in scoring in playoffs just 2 pts total behind Horford and 2 pts total ahead of Rozier.
He was also 2cd in usage in playoffs behind Morris amoung the starters.
The public is on a 3-1 run, and are 63% on Celtics, 3-1 run is not all that great but would look for public to go down tonight which works well with our play on 76ers.
If public does win tonight then already shaping up for tommorrow for a win for us. Public will not survive 3-0 over the next 2 nights and go on a 6-1 run , very unlikely.
I'm always curious about sources for public bets. I'm seeing conflicting reports on this game. I use various sites, VI , a site that starts with Z and lists number of bets separately from dollar amounts and covers. There used to be a spot where a bookie posted his action but he's done for the year. Really hard to trust any of them unless it's obvious and they all agree. The bookie seemed to be legit but still it was just the whims of his players. Covers report from Vegas books claims heavy action on 76ers as do most but not all of my sources.VI has 61% on Celtics + points but Philly ML Listening to people on the board is a good clue but I think they often are against the very general public in regard to Cavs games.
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I'm always curious about sources for public bets. I'm seeing conflicting reports on this game. I use various sites, VI , a site that starts with Z and lists number of bets separately from dollar amounts and covers. There used to be a spot where a bookie posted his action but he's done for the year. Really hard to trust any of them unless it's obvious and they all agree. The bookie seemed to be legit but still it was just the whims of his players. Covers report from Vegas books claims heavy action on 76ers as do most but not all of my sources.VI has 61% on Celtics + points but Philly ML Listening to people on the board is a good clue but I think they often are against the very general public in regard to Cavs games.
Public was on Celtics, 63% or so, the line moves based on money which was on 76ers but the number of bets was more on Celtics, the larger bets most likely sharps was on 76ers. But the more bets more likely general public was on Celtics.
So now public is on a 4-1 run, and will almost certainly lose at least 1 game tonight on Cavs then on Warriors.
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Public was on Celtics, 63% or so, the line moves based on money which was on 76ers but the number of bets was more on Celtics, the larger bets most likely sharps was on 76ers. But the more bets more likely general public was on Celtics.
So now public is on a 4-1 run, and will almost certainly lose at least 1 game tonight on Cavs then on Warriors.
Celtics shot very well, 47.2 % on 3's almost 10% above their ave, while 76ers shot dreadful, 19.2 % on 3's almost 18 % below their ave.
That is your typical result with 3 pointers, shoot very well and win or very poor and lose but for 1 team to shoot well and the other poor in the same game leads to a big win.
Rozier shot lights out, 7 of 9.
Celtics likely will not continue at that pace nor will 76ers.
Celtics are amazing , playing through another injury to Brown and they do not seem to miss a beat.
Alot of people doubting this team which only feeds their motivation, at some point hopefully some of that shifts to believing in the Celtics.
Interesting there was an article just this morning on Yahoo........ should we start believing in the Celtics ?
Watch the sentiment shift and the results .as well. But not sure it has shifted all that much yet, but at some point in this series it very well could.
In any event we ride the 76ers again game 2. But let's wait-out the line.
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0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units
Celtics shot very well, 47.2 % on 3's almost 10% above their ave, while 76ers shot dreadful, 19.2 % on 3's almost 18 % below their ave.
That is your typical result with 3 pointers, shoot very well and win or very poor and lose but for 1 team to shoot well and the other poor in the same game leads to a big win.
Rozier shot lights out, 7 of 9.
Celtics likely will not continue at that pace nor will 76ers.
Celtics are amazing , playing through another injury to Brown and they do not seem to miss a beat.
Alot of people doubting this team which only feeds their motivation, at some point hopefully some of that shifts to believing in the Celtics.
Interesting there was an article just this morning on Yahoo........ should we start believing in the Celtics ?
Watch the sentiment shift and the results .as well. But not sure it has shifted all that much yet, but at some point in this series it very well could.
In any event we ride the 76ers again game 2. But let's wait-out the line.
Tough loss for Raps, lead the entire game had multiple chances at end of regulation but no shot would drop, then missed on last possession.
Raps seemed to get alot of bad breaks in the game, Raps are a different team, they will respond in game 2 and win game 3 and take a 2-1 series lead.
The game was headed over but then nobody could score much for a good long period late in 4th, we got a little lucky with the OT but the pace was very good for the over pretty much the entire game.
Cavs did play much better defense, LBJ had a triple double while once again shooting horrendously bad. 1 of 8 on 3's and 1 of 6 from the line. Seems to be his calling card for his triple doubles.
The public came in on a 4-1 run, won the first game on Cavs to go 5-1, then much as we suspected were going to lose at least 1 game, with 71 % on Warriors, Pelicans get the cover.
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games 0-1 ATS, LOST 2.2 UNITS
totals 1-0 ATS, won 2 units
Tough loss for Raps, lead the entire game had multiple chances at end of regulation but no shot would drop, then missed on last possession.
Raps seemed to get alot of bad breaks in the game, Raps are a different team, they will respond in game 2 and win game 3 and take a 2-1 series lead.
The game was headed over but then nobody could score much for a good long period late in 4th, we got a little lucky with the OT but the pace was very good for the over pretty much the entire game.
Cavs did play much better defense, LBJ had a triple double while once again shooting horrendously bad. 1 of 8 on 3's and 1 of 6 from the line. Seems to be his calling card for his triple doubles.
The public came in on a 4-1 run, won the first game on Cavs to go 5-1, then much as we suspected were going to lose at least 1 game, with 71 % on Warriors, Pelicans get the cover.
Rockets off 3 ATS wins, not the best spot for Rockets, we could see some regression tonight, and Jazz just might be in this game with a chance for the SU win.
Jazz +11 over Rockets --- 2.2 units
Lean --- Jazz ML
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
MY LINES........................... game 2
Rockets -6.77 over Jazz
Rockets off 3 ATS wins, not the best spot for Rockets, we could see some regression tonight, and Jazz just might be in this game with a chance for the SU win.
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