claw, if you don't mind me asking, where are you getting your public % from? i follow some book makers on twitter and they have been the opposite of you on a couple games now where you said the public was heavy and who the house is rooting for, (boston and cleveland). i have sports insights and i also don't see what you're seeing. i am genuinely curious where you are getting your info from
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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claw, if you don't mind me asking, where are you getting your public % from? i follow some book makers on twitter and they have been the opposite of you on a couple games now where you said the public was heavy and who the house is rooting for, (boston and cleveland). i have sports insights and i also don't see what you're seeing. i am genuinely curious where you are getting your info from
01:05 – Boston Celtics +4.5 Point Spread vs Philadelphia 76ers 01:05 – Toronto Raptors -6 Point Spread vs Cleveland Cavaliers 01:05 – Under 213.5 Total Points Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors 03:35 – Over 218 Alternative Total Points New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors 03:35 – Golden State Warriors -7 Point Spread vs New Orleans Pelicans
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(UK time)
01:05 – Boston Celtics +4.5 Point Spread vs Philadelphia 76ers 01:05 – Toronto Raptors -6 Point Spread vs Cleveland Cavaliers 01:05 – Under 213.5 Total Points Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors 03:35 – Over 218 Alternative Total Points New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors 03:35 – Golden State Warriors -7 Point Spread vs New Orleans Pelicans
I agree with anyone looking to back the JAzz tonight fg 1st h and 1st q...this game should look eerily similar to last nights Warriors game where the road team gives a better effort after being blitzed in the opener
Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
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I agree with anyone looking to back the JAzz tonight fg 1st h and 1st q...this game should look eerily similar to last nights Warriors game where the road team gives a better effort after being blitzed in the opener
claw, if you don't mind me asking, where are you getting your public % from? i follow some book makers on twitter and they have been the opposite of you on a couple games now where you said the public was heavy and who the house is rooting for, (boston and cleveland). i have sports insights and i also don't see what you're seeing. i am genuinely curious where you are getting your info from
Vegasinsiders, your talking about the money or line movements, that is different from the %'s.
Yes, that can be opposite.
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Quote Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:
claw, if you don't mind me asking, where are you getting your public % from? i follow some book makers on twitter and they have been the opposite of you on a couple games now where you said the public was heavy and who the house is rooting for, (boston and cleveland). i have sports insights and i also don't see what you're seeing. i am genuinely curious where you are getting your info from
Vegasinsiders, your talking about the money or line movements, that is different from the %'s.
good spot last night to play ML, but not quite the very best spot we look for, but it can be profitable and it should worked out well.
Rockets let their true colors show, shooting horrendous on 3's, live by the 3, die by the 3, to difficult to be consistent.
we suggested if Rockets shot just a little under their ave of 36.2 % they would have made only 10 ...3's in game 1 instead of 17, that is 21 pts less, well, they shot 27% but took more 3's to finish with 10 ...3'a, 21 fewer points on 3 with 5 more shot attempts.
we also suggested Jazz could shot above their ave and they sure did, almost 47% on 3's.
Harden was dreadful 2-10 but he is very capable of getting to the line on these type nights and went 12 of 13, he is incredible at that. He had 22 shots from field and 13 FT's, a great ratio of FT's.
That can make up for shooting a low % .
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game --- 1-0 ATS, won 2 units
leans ........game ---1-0 ML +600
1st half --- 1-0 ATS
1st half --- 1-0 ML +315
good spot last night to play ML, but not quite the very best spot we look for, but it can be profitable and it should worked out well.
Rockets let their true colors show, shooting horrendous on 3's, live by the 3, die by the 3, to difficult to be consistent.
we suggested if Rockets shot just a little under their ave of 36.2 % they would have made only 10 ...3's in game 1 instead of 17, that is 21 pts less, well, they shot 27% but took more 3's to finish with 10 ...3'a, 21 fewer points on 3 with 5 more shot attempts.
we also suggested Jazz could shot above their ave and they sure did, almost 47% on 3's.
Harden was dreadful 2-10 but he is very capable of getting to the line on these type nights and went 12 of 13, he is incredible at that. He had 22 shots from field and 13 FT's, a great ratio of FT's.
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS.........................0-2 ATS, round 2
76ers -4 over Celtics --- 2.2 units
Raptors -6.5 over Cavs --- 2.2 units
Raps/Cavs OVER 212.5 --- 2.2 units , we only make this play if closing line is 214.5 or lower, if line goes to 215 or higher we buy off the play. maybe we get lucky and middle it.
I may not be able to post on this as game starts very early 6 pm. we do exactly what I posted regardless if I post again on this play.
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LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS.........................0-2 ATS, round 2
76ers -4 over Celtics --- 2.2 units
Raptors -6.5 over Cavs --- 2.2 units
Raps/Cavs OVER 212.5 --- 2.2 units , we only make this play if closing line is 214.5 or lower, if line goes to 215 or higher we buy off the play. maybe we get lucky and middle it.
I may not be able to post on this as game starts very early 6 pm. we do exactly what I posted regardless if I post again on this play.
Vegasinsiders, your talking about the money or line movements, that is different from the %'s.
Yes, that can be opposite.
right on, claw. solid work. thanks for the response. you're spot on about the rockets. the most infuriating thing about watching that game was in the second quarter, they figured out what their mistakes were. they began to draw fouls, drive to the hole, quit shooting the long ball, to then tie it up. jazz was in serious foul trouble! then to watch them go back to how they were originally playing the second half. you can tell they started to freak out and lost total control, just launching and praying for threes insteaad of playing strategic basketball. it was very similar to what college kids do
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Vegasinsiders, your talking about the money or line movements, that is different from the %'s.
Yes, that can be opposite.
right on, claw. solid work. thanks for the response. you're spot on about the rockets. the most infuriating thing about watching that game was in the second quarter, they figured out what their mistakes were. they began to draw fouls, drive to the hole, quit shooting the long ball, to then tie it up. jazz was in serious foul trouble! then to watch them go back to how they were originally playing the second half. you can tell they started to freak out and lost total control, just launching and praying for threes insteaad of playing strategic basketball. it was very similar to what college kids do
LBJ was unstoppable, nothing a team can do when a great player gets in that mode. Raps played very well, 54 % shooting but LBJ 19 of 28, 67.9%.
Hey, he was 2 rebs short of a triple double so I quess he did not have a very good game, if he got those 2 extra rebs though, he would of been incredible, haha, ha, silly .
LBJ is showing us why triple doubles are a silly gauge of the better player, he had games with triple doubles and lost because he shot poorly, then failed to get TD but shot very well and won, FG % has the highest correlation to winning the game.
LBJ looked like MJ did in many finals games when MJ came up just short of triple doubles, to try and make the arguement LBJ has more TD in finals then MJ makes him the better player is silly, just dumb without considering how he shot the ball while getting those TD's, which was very poor in many of them.
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game --- 0-2 ATS, lost 4.4 units
total --- 1-0, won 2 units
LBJ was unstoppable, nothing a team can do when a great player gets in that mode. Raps played very well, 54 % shooting but LBJ 19 of 28, 67.9%.
Hey, he was 2 rebs short of a triple double so I quess he did not have a very good game, if he got those 2 extra rebs though, he would of been incredible, haha, ha, silly .
LBJ is showing us why triple doubles are a silly gauge of the better player, he had games with triple doubles and lost because he shot poorly, then failed to get TD but shot very well and won, FG % has the highest correlation to winning the game.
LBJ looked like MJ did in many finals games when MJ came up just short of triple doubles, to try and make the arguement LBJ has more TD in finals then MJ makes him the better player is silly, just dumb without considering how he shot the ball while getting those TD's, which was very poor in many of them.
76ers looked great up 22, my goodness those Celtics just won't die.
76ers might have a chance to come back and win the series, but not Raps, can't lose 2 at home and come back and win, Suns with Barkley did that once I think if I remember correctly, but just does not happen.
A good number of teams fell behind 2-0 on road and came back and won, if that happens, might be setting up to play 76ers VS Cavs as public opinion will really shift on both teams.
C's will be off 3 ATS wins coming into game 3, great spot for 76ers. Cavs off 2ATS wins good spot but not as good.
And both our largest mismatch teams will be off 2 su losses about the best spot for these teams.
We should bounce back in game 3's.
Public won both games last night, likely won't go 2-0 again tonight on Warriors and Rockets, but if they do then on a 4-0 run going into those game 3's they are already on both Cavs and C's, plays perfectly into our plays to fade them.
Based on public was not best spot last night as they were off a losing record and due a win, likely would get 1 win but got both but very low % on both.
Tommoorrow might be a far better spot for the public based method which we do not always use but good to keep a eye on it.
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76ers looked great up 22, my goodness those Celtics just won't die.
76ers might have a chance to come back and win the series, but not Raps, can't lose 2 at home and come back and win, Suns with Barkley did that once I think if I remember correctly, but just does not happen.
A good number of teams fell behind 2-0 on road and came back and won, if that happens, might be setting up to play 76ers VS Cavs as public opinion will really shift on both teams.
C's will be off 3 ATS wins coming into game 3, great spot for 76ers. Cavs off 2ATS wins good spot but not as good.
And both our largest mismatch teams will be off 2 su losses about the best spot for these teams.
We should bounce back in game 3's.
Public won both games last night, likely won't go 2-0 again tonight on Warriors and Rockets, but if they do then on a 4-0 run going into those game 3's they are already on both Cavs and C's, plays perfectly into our plays to fade them.
Based on public was not best spot last night as they were off a losing record and due a win, likely would get 1 win but got both but very low % on both.
Tommoorrow might be a far better spot for the public based method which we do not always use but good to keep a eye on it.
Jazz will likely win 1 of the 2 home games, they could win both if they are going to win the series but not likely to lose both, so we could make a play based on this info .
We could either play them tonight then up our play in game 4 if we lose or pass tonight and hope they lose then play them in game 4.
2 options, both of which likely will result in a profit.
we pass on tonight but will likely make a play in game 4 if the Jazz lose tonight.
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Jazz will likely win 1 of the 2 home games, they could win both if they are going to win the series but not likely to lose both, so we could make a play based on this info .
We could either play them tonight then up our play in game 4 if we lose or pass tonight and hope they lose then play them in game 4.
2 options, both of which likely will result in a profit.
we pass on tonight but will likely make a play in game 4 if the Jazz lose tonight.
Pelicans roll big time, interesting when we have the dog as our favorite we win SU roughly 50%, someday will have to look alot more into this.
About the same in NFL Playoffs with a dog as our favorite.
Warriors likely bounce back big off that loss.
Harden was again dreadful on 3's , 2 of 8 and Paul was as well, and Rockets again shot below ave on 3's. at just over 30%, not very good but they still win big.
They have done that many times in regular season.
I suspect Jazz bounce back in game 4 .
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1-0 ATS, won 2 units
Pelicans roll big time, interesting when we have the dog as our favorite we win SU roughly 50%, someday will have to look alot more into this.
About the same in NFL Playoffs with a dog as our favorite.
Warriors likely bounce back big off that loss.
Harden was again dreadful on 3's , 2 of 8 and Paul was as well, and Rockets again shot below ave on 3's. at just over 30%, not very good but they still win big.
We wait-out the lines, may get some better numbers down the road.
Celtics off 3 ATS wins , not a good spot at all to back C's, very close situation to being a big regression fade, misses by a small amount.
Cavs off 2 ATS win, not the best spot for them.
Public comes in on a 3-1 run , not likely to win both games and are on both C's and Cavs at this time.
Our 2 largest mismatch teams are both off 2 SU losses which is one of the best spots for them, everything shapes up on our 2 teams today which makes this a great spot as very unlikely we lose both games.
We should get at least 1 win with a good possibility to get 2.
We stay the course with the info and we should be just fine.
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We wait-out the lines, may get some better numbers down the road.
Celtics off 3 ATS wins , not a good spot at all to back C's, very close situation to being a big regression fade, misses by a small amount.
Cavs off 2 ATS win, not the best spot for them.
Public comes in on a 3-1 run , not likely to win both games and are on both C's and Cavs at this time.
Our 2 largest mismatch teams are both off 2 SU losses which is one of the best spots for them, everything shapes up on our 2 teams today which makes this a great spot as very unlikely we lose both games.
We should get at least 1 win with a good possibility to get 2.
We stay the course with the info and we should be just fine.
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