Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Scal, you've made some really great points and I can't counter all of them but here are a few I take issue with. But before I do, let me say, as you noted my writeup is missing the Thunder side of the story, their aspirations for a title, their defeat at the hands of the Heat and their desire for revenge and redemption. I left all that out because, as you know, I don't like this Thunder team and the Spurs, to me, are much more interesting from a basketball standpoint (how they've managed to create a team that is so different than what the NBA usually offers) and human interest. The Thunder, to me, are not true contenders, though in their minds they are (and that is all that matters tonight). They also watched that Miami celebration and I'm sure that will play a part in how they come out tonight.
Having said all that, we must face the facts. If not for Ibaka's absence in the first two games, OKC would probably be ahead in this series. Pop is a great coach (and he probably pull a game, or maybe two, out of his hat) but he can't make his team better than the Thunder. This is not saying that the Thunder are a better basketball team, only that they are better than the Spurs because of all the problems they pose. Those problems did not simply disappear for good in game 5 (with Pop's adjustments). They simply confused the Thunder long enough to gain a decisive advantage in that game. The Thunder are still the Thunder and the Spurs are still the Spurs. This series has a pattern to it (i.e., home team wins by dd) that I don't think will be broken tonight. The Thunder simply lacked the defensive intensity in game 5, it had nothing to do with their offense. They will feed off that crowd tonight and play much better D. And why didn't the Thunder have the intensity in game 5? As I noted in a post in my previous writeup, it takes a lot of energy to climb out of a 2-0 hole. It's like a team, coming back from 25 down to cut it to 5 only to have the other team push it back to dd. Now it is the Thunder's turn to make one last foray, or the season is lost.
It's a fair counterpoint to say they will play better D and the blowout actually favors OKC since they come back with even more in Game 6 to reverse if (a close game in game 5 would fool them into thinking they are better than they are as you noted).
But I really can't dismiss the first two games. They spoke to the Spurs professionalism. They saw OKC's wound and pounced, tearing it open and putting salt in it.
Then Ibaka comes back and Spurs can't counter in the first game (expected) and threw in the towel in the second (given 2012 and how they lost in that Game 4).
So for me, Game 5 was the real 'heads up' game in this series with both teams at full force.
And man, did the spurs tear them limb from limb. Ibaka and all.
You can say pop pulled one out of his hat (starting bonner) and he did. But this 3 game series to close it after 2-2 is chess match and who holds the queen on OKC's side. I'd rather have Mark Jackson than Brooks!
So that leaves OKC with:
Home court (important)
Refs (very important)
KD
Westbrook
Let's remember what KD has gone through. If they are down 7 in the third, does he let the Mr. Unreliable ghosts rattle him for the next 1.5 quarters?
And West, well we know what he is capable of when things go sour.
I just see a lot of moving pieces having to fall into place here for OKC and they all must fall or else the Spurs will try to avoid a Game 7 (as they did against the Heat). We can't say the Spurs will go home and win and la de dah. Game 7 vs. KD and OKC is no joke and will be a barn burner.
So i do see the Spurs coming to play tonight.
Spurs tried to close it out in 6 in Dallas and fell short by 2 giving up a highly in characteristic 37 in the fourth to lose it. Dallas needed an incredible fourth offensively to push that one to 7.
If the Spurs lead after 3 (and I see them going for it) they are the bets in the biz at holding leads:
The Spurs were 25-1 on the road when leading after three quarters before this game. They're now 55-2 overall for the season.
The line is at 4 now and +150 for the Spurs and the public is starting to grab more and more OKC. It's gonna be tough for me not to switch my bet to SA. This of course takes nothing away from your write-up which is superb in establishing a side for OKC.
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