A Lion Still Has Claws: Spurs vs. Thunder, Game 6:

LMAO, so that IS you in the pic! LOL I thought so....Thanks for the laughs...

Just make sure when you're rollin around with those dudes on the ground, that you don't get your small little thingies tangled up. And when the dude goes to rip your mask off, make sure it's glued really tight to your face, so to make sure he can't succeed.

Bol

Okc ml to be sure of cover and under!!

goodluck$

Fast break points. This is what propelled OKC to a big game 4 win.

What were the fast break point totals in game 5?

SA: 14 

OKC: 4 (their lowest of the series)

Compare this with Game 4:

SA : 0 (obviously their lowest of the series)

OKC: 21 (their highest)

Why did this change happen?

The Bonner/Diaw for Splitter change 

When Splitter was on the floor, he was deep in the paint with Duncan.

After a missed shot by SA, Reggie/West/KD would push the ball hard for a 3 on the 3 which the Spurs are overmatched (because Tim and Taigo couldn't get back) or worse, a 3 on 2 of the shooter's momentum carried him forward/he went for the offensive board and again Tiago and Tim can't get back.

But Bonner and Diaw are at the top of the key and there will be no 3 on 2 and Diaw is good enough to slow down West or Reggie and then Tim or Tiago can recover.

Therefore the Spurs had floor balance and it resulted in the lowest number of FB pts in the series for OKC.

Can Brooks effectively counter this? We know he can't. Not in 2 days and maybe never given he isn't Pop.

So we are left to the do or die OKC mentality and the refs. Because the floor dynamic has changed dramatically as Tiago once again will be relegated to the bench. Refs need to come up big for OKC (and they will favor them), as to west and KD, very big because of this.

It's a fair counterpoint to say they will play better D and the blowout actually favors OKC since they come back with even more in Game 6 to reverse if (a close game in game 5 would fool them into thinking they are better than they are as you noted).

But I really can't dismiss the first two games. They spoke to the Spurs professionalism. They saw OKC's wound and pounced, tearing it open and putting salt in it.

Then Ibaka comes back and Spurs can't counter in the first game (expected) and threw in the towel in the second (given 2012 and how they lost in that Game 4).

So for me, Game 5 was the real 'heads up' game in this series with both teams at full force.

And man, did the spurs tear them limb from limb. Ibaka and all.

You can say pop pulled one out of his hat (starting bonner) and he did. But this 3 game series to close it after 2-2 is chess match and who holds the queen on OKC's side. I'd rather have Mark Jackson than Brooks! 

So that leaves OKC with:

Home court (important)

Refs (very important)

KD 

Westbrook

Let's remember what KD has gone through. If they are down 7 in the third, does he let the Mr. Unreliable ghosts rattle him for the next 1.5 quarters?

And West, well we know what he is capable of when things go sour.

I just see a lot of moving pieces having to fall into place here for OKC and they all must fall or else the Spurs will try to avoid a Game 7 (as they did against the Heat). We can't say the Spurs will go home and win and la de dah. Game 7 vs. KD and OKC is no joke and will be a barn burner. 

So i do see the Spurs coming to play tonight.

Spurs tried to close it out in 6 in Dallas and fell short by 2 giving up a highly in characteristic 37 in the fourth to lose it. Dallas needed an incredible fourth offensively to push that one to 7.

If the Spurs lead after 3 (and I see them going for it) they are the bets in the biz at holding leads:

I really don't see avg. age going into the formula as to why Pop and crew will try to take it tonight, and I don't see him considering it (or even knowing it) when he went for game 6 in Dallas. It is obvious OKC has a ton of energy, avg age or otherwise. 

And even if they don't win, the line is now on the 4 point threshold opening the door for a middle for the books (majority of thunder backers laying the points given the blowouts in this series therefore expecting a blowout win, and the spurs backers taking the ML thinking they close out the series) so the Spurs do not have to win when all and said and done obviously.

To me, suddenly +4 points becomes quite relevant from a book perspective, and that is a perspective we all take note of.

And the Spurs still have home court in a game 7 which is of the ultimate significance and what they fought for all year.

We know the Spurs go for the Game 6's (Dallas Miami) and it is in a spot where we (and it is not irrational to think this) should yhink they wouldn't go for it.

its basic,common basketball 101 knowledge that in playoffs stars have to carry you on the road,whilst in home games reserves can often play a much more meaningful role the the feeling of comfort they gain from being cheered on,sleeping in their own beds etc..

  commentators were at pains to point out how woefully thin the bench was after reggie's insertion into starting lineup left them short.this proved critical in the end as that scoring void cud never be bridged(tho of course it was NOT the deciding factor,spurs were always gonna win that game im more than willing to concede).now all of a sudden with a simple change of location guys like collins,adams,lamb and butler can come on and not allow much of a let-up and feel like they are capable of playing like all-stars(if only for a few minutes here and there)with the support they feel.....against no other team is this more important as we all know the spurs throw out the best bench in the bizness consistently.

in the end i side with beginnerboy,i totally understand the class and quality of that spurs squad(and believe me,im rooting HARD for them 2 win the series),and see them going for the close-out here up to a point......but thunder desperation,passion and physical manifestation of pure will shud carry them through here.we saw wat it did for them in backs-2-the-wall situations earlier in the series.and those WERENT even elimination games.now they can see their playoff lives flashing before their eyes and obviously must empty the tank(as opposed to the spurs with the luxury of that xtra game).

 also,dont underestimate the drive of the thunder "mission" mentality to get another chance at a title.no they dont have the pain fresh in their minds that the spurs have from last season BUT im sure many of them remember the sting and anguish delivered by the hand of lebron in an eventual beat-down of a series and will of course be keen for redemption in a title series after having a season essentially stolen from them at the tail end of 2013...and they are led by who i believe to be the most competitive animal in the league currently(tho it doesnt always translate in the best way on court in terms of intelligence and decision making),russell westbrook

beginnerboy, I dont post much but follow your threads closely, all your insight is greatly appreciated. I just had a very quick question - my guts tells me you have put all your bankroll on OKC - is that correct?

Just testing out to see if I know you enough - please dont take this the wrong way

If I had the kind of bankroll you did, I did put it all on OKC as welll

Melos, what you are banking on is a step-up of the thunder bench which is in no way guaranteed and you have rightfully acknowledged the Spurs bench is the best there is (that is, they will come to play regardless with nothing to 'hope for' in terms of expected output in that regard).

Secondly, for the 'mission statement' I don't even think OKC had a chance in hell to win the heat series whereas the Spurs were 35 seconds away and yes, that lingers to this very moment especially in light of the heat closing it out in impressive fashion might I add, last night.

Yes the Heat clinching it matters as the longer this series goes for a much older team, the fresher Miami will be (and if it goes 7, we don't even know if it is the Spurs they will play!). So "the mission" point you made shifts FAR in favor of the Spurs side.

And this is key, what will Brooks bring in a "full squad - full squad matchup" after he just got trounced. Game 3 was almost a gimmee for OKC with Ibaka's reinsertion but Bonner and Diaw pull him out of the paint because they have to be guarded beyond the FT line and help get back on D mitigating fast break points (whereas Ibaka can stay underneath with Splitter and let him mozy around the perimeter as he'd never hit that shot).

Pop had a counter to his loss. What will be Brooks' counter? There won't be one. He will rely on his talent (stupendous) and the refs (he'll have them) except he's up against the ONE team that can beat both!

Nice write up.