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A trend that will blow your mind.

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Posted: #1
Never mind last years playoff series between these 2 teams which both teams went 3-1su & 3-1ats vs each other on their home courts. But lets concentrate more so what happened in the last 3 games in Indiana during the regular season between these two. The Pacers have gone 3-0su & 3-0ats in  all 3 with double digit victory’s winning 105-90 on March 26th 2012, winning 87-77 on Jan 8th 2013 & winning 102-89 on Feb 1st 2013. Miami only outscored the Pacers in 2 of a possible 12 quarters during these games.

James & Bosh FT shooting during these 3 games = 27 for 40 = 68%

But as teams these 2 were pretty much a wash both shooting 70% as you will see below:

Heat FT shooting as a team in these games = 55 for 79 = 70% 

Pacers FT shooting as a team in these games = 50 for 71 = 70%

The real difference was the Pacers defense seeming to be just to strong as James turned the ball over 16 times  & James/Bosh/Wade had a combined +/- of -88. Hence the reason the Heat have only outscored the Pacers in just 2 quarters out of a possible 12 in this scenario. 

Also interesting was seeing the Heat being dead last this season in opponent 3pt rate allowing 30.6% which is a consistent drop from their 23.9% in 2010-11, 24.6% in 2011-12 and their 26.6% in 2012-13 (Please understand that 3pt rate is different than 3pt%. don’t get the 2 confused). So hmmm... the Heat’s jump shooting defense has consistently gotten worse (Or lazy might be a better choice of words) in each of the 4 seasons since Lebron & Bosh walked down the isle with Wade for a 3 way marriage. A far cry from the Pacers and their #2 20.4% 3pt rate allowed. The Pacers defend everything well (34.9% 3pt% & 42.3% 2pt%) as they contest so many more shots than the Heat on defense (36.9% 3pt% & 46.8% 2pt%). 

Nine NBA seasons have passed us by since the NBA had a team finish the season allowing 43% or better from the field. So far this year we currently have 2 teams at better than 43% allowed. The other team besides the Pacers is the Bulls and they just torched the Heat in Chicago 107-87 holding them to just 41.6% from the floor. Taking to the road vs the best defense in the NBA is not going to be an easy task, especially since the Pacers are coming off just there 3rd loss of the season and are now 9-0su at home. 

As a matter of fact the Pacers went 12-0su last year when returning home in games that followed a road loss. Need proof, here ya go:

Fri, Nov 2nd loss @Char 89-90 followed by a home win on Nov 3rd vs Sac 106-98(ot)

Fri, Nov 9th loss @Minn 94-96 followed by a home win on Nov 10th vs Wash 89-85

Wed, Nov 14th loss @Milw 85-99 followed by a home win on Nov 16th vs Dal 103-83

Sun, Dec 9th loss @OKC 93-104 followed by a home win on Dec 12th vs Cle 96-81

Tue, Dec 18th loss @Milw 93-98 followed by a home win on Dec 19th vs Utah 104-84

Sat, Dec 29th loss @ATL 100-109 followed by a home win on Dec 31st vs Mem 88-83

Fri, Jan 4th loss @Bos 75-94 followed by a home win on Jan 5th vs Milw 95-80

Wed, Jan 16th loss @Orl 86-97 followed by a home win on Jan 18th vs Hou 105-95

Mon, Jan 28th loss @Den 101-102 followed by a home win on Jan 30th vs Det 98-79

Sun, Mar 10th loss @Mia 91-105 followed by a home win on Mar 13th vs Min 107-91

Sat, Mar 23rd loss @Chi 84-87 followed by a home win on Mar 25th vs Atl 100-94

Sat, Apr 6th loss @Wash 85-104 followed by a home win on Apr 9th vs Cle 99-94

Well that’s margin of defeats of the following 8, 4, 20, 15, 20, 5, 15, 10, 19, 16, 6 & 5 = 11.91 point per victory margin!!!


So yeah I’d say we get s tong effort out of the Pacers here especially under the circumstances that they have not forgot their game 7 loss to the Heat in the playoffs last season. This game is the 1st of 4 games vs the Heat this season and I got to believe the 1st game will entail some revenge. That coupled by all the other supporting stats how does one take the Heat in this game any any information gathered? I’m just not seeing it, but hey this is the NBA and anything can happen. But as far as wagering goes, well I just keep making informed wagers and let it play out in the long run, Especially since the Miami Heat clearly show all kind of symptoms of not caring much during the regular season...

Good luck everyone. I bet the max allowed at my book on the Pacers -3.5(-110)...
 
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Posted: #2
Oh yeah this game is not tonight. It's tomorrow for those that couldn't figure it out. Good luck if you wager on it. 
 
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Posted: #3
Good Call Bator........................
 
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Posted: #4
Sorry for the typo. The Pacers went 2-1su & 2-1ats at home vs the Heat in the playoffs last season and the Heat went 3-1su & 2-2ats at home vs the Pacers in that 7 game series. Sorry for the 3-1su & 3-1ats typo in the intro...
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by smatt721:

Good Call Bator........................
It's only a good call if t cashes. And no sir I'm not Bator but love to read his posts. I do feel that any seasoned bettor will probably like the Pacers here even with out this heap of supporting info. I surely did but was just further amazed at what I found when back logging this stat from last season. Tonight's the 1st opportunity this season for the Pacers so hopefully it holds truth in the final score.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by CK19:

It's only a good call if t cashes. And no sir I'm not Bator but love to read his posts. I do feel that any seasoned bettor will probably like the Pacers here even with out this heap of supporting info. I surely did but was just further amazed at what I found when back logging this stat from last season. Tonight's the 1st opportunity this season for the Pacers so hopefully it holds truth in the final score.
*Tuesday night. Not tonight. I'm far from perfect.
 
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Posted: #7
nice writeup. Thanks. 
 
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Posted: #8
Thanks
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:

nice writeup. Thanks. 
Thanks, I couldn't believe my eyes once I checked last years history on this. I knew they were good but sheesh! Number now at -3(-105) at some shops...
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by winoNV:

Thanks
Your welcome, GL
 
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Posted: #11
1st home game after a 5 game west coast trip ----- > that's why line is low , beggin you to take Indy ml. At first glance i was excited i found a game like this with, double revenge. Thanks for sharing and puttun time 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by livin2gamble:

1st home game after a 5 game west coast trip ----- > that's why line is low , beggin you to take Indy ml. At first glance i was excited i found a game like this with, double revenge. Thanks for sharing and puttun time 
I don't think the line is low (But I could be alone here). It's set against the Miami Heat perception. Last year in Indiana the Heat were -2 favs on the road in both games. I'd say a 5 to 5.5 point turn around is far from being short, unless you're just speaking short in numbers only terms. I think if the Books put up a -5 or more here the betting community in majority would salivate in taking the Heat no question about it. I think I would still take the Pacers in this game up to -7 or more as stupid as that sounds.

Thanks for the kind words...
 
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Posted: #13
Last year in Indiana the Heat were -2 favs on the road in both games. I'd say a 5 to 5.5 point turn around is far from being short, unless you're just speaking short in numbers only terms
just saw Indy had won twice last year after 4 away from west and now they look much better than previous season that's why i scratch my head. anyway i'm with you
 
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Posted: #14
To me this is the most telling part about who the better team is here..

"Miami only outscored the Pacers in 2 of a possible 12 quarters during these games."

GL tonight. 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by smatt721:

Good Call Bator........................


theres no way bator would have taken -3.5. 
 
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Posted: #16
BATOR  
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:

To me this is the most telling part about who the better team is here..

"Miami only outscored the Pacers in 2 of a possible 12 quarters during these games."

GL tonight. 
And that was by a combined 3 points in total including one of those qtrs being the 4th qtr of a double digit win...
 
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Posted: #18
OddsbusterSports.com is where this info came from, yes. Best of luck if you play it with me. Hope to get some more clients to join up for my hard time spent. I'm 11-2ats in the last 4 days in NCAAB and here's the wagers I made for tonight...

Actual wagers:
Kansas +3.5(-110)…
Green Bay -2.5(-110)…
Kansas St/South Dakota under 129.5(-110)…
West Virginia +2.5(-110)…



Leans/info:
I’m going to try and be real simple here with numbers and thoughts combined with me watching all these teams play real fast…

Kansas +3.5(-110)… As much as I don’t like Kansas on the defensive side of the ball it’s most because of their youth and as time goes on that will get better. Florida does not possess a big time low post presence like Nova did with Pinkston or shooters to help them out vs a talented team like Kansas. Florida’s only hope is to play excellent defense and I’m not sure they can do that for 40min. Florida rates outside the top 100 in both 2pt% & 3pt% on offense and that’s SCARY vs Kansas…

Green Bay -2.5(-110)… Green Bay is really tempting. Keifer Sykes is just fun to watch handle the rock and control things from the point. Anytime you have a superior PG you’re going to catch my attention. Solid PG’s at the college level are hard to find. A pace as slow as EMU’s at #258 with a 2pt% on offense of #258 and 3pt% of #213 may be enough to bury them to the L column ve anyone with a pulse. I look to snag EMU when they’re getting boat loads of points if I can…

Evansville +10.5(-110)… Xavier games seem to really confuse me so far up to this point. I need to see more from them but maybe the cover this number and maybe they don’t. That thought process should always be an auto lean to the DD dog…

Oakland +15.5(-110)… Indiana lacks offense this year to core big numbers. Their offense dropped 95 spots in the rating column from last season. Perception still looms = why you see a big number here instead of say something like -9ish to -12ish range…

Dartmouth +16(-110)… Illinois defends the 2pt basket well at #5 but not so much the jump shot at #127 defending the 3pt shot. That’s good for Dartmouth because they are much better at hitting the 3 ball #66 opposed to hitting the deuce at #114. And actually both of those numbers are decent ones for Dartmouth. Illinois offense is rated outside the top 140 in both 2pt% & 3pt% so their may indeed be a solid chance here that Dartmouth can hang around…

IPFW +5.5(-110)… Need to see more from Bradly but IPFW has some good shooters on their squad with Jacobo, Evans & Kibiloski a combined 51 for 121 from 3pt range = 42%. The issue here is Bradly rates #20 defending the 3 ball. Tough game = lean pts…

South Dakota St +15.5(-110)… Only if Jake Bittle plays though. He’s dealing with a for injury and scored 28pts in the 1st 2 games of the season vs San Diego (4 pt loss) and Loyloa Marymount (9pt loss). He’s a huge % of their offensive production and must needed IMO to keep games close in the post Nate Wolters era. He’s a game time decision…

Kansas St/South Dakota under 129.5(-110)… Both teams defend the 2pt well (both inside top 100). South Dakota offense rated outside top 280 in both 2pt% & 3pt% while K St rates #180 on offense in 2pt% & #330 in 3pt%. K St tempo is also very slow at #298 and in a game in which they figure to have control from start to finish as -14.5 favs I really like the under. Last game K St was DD fav the total resulted in 118pts scored (Northern Colorado was opponent). South Dakota is also not a fast team at #171 so yeah, you see where I’m going here…

Tulsa -10.5(-110)… Tulsa’s numbers are off a little based on playing a tough schedule to this point IMO. Arkansas Little-Rock lost by 17 on the road to MTSU and Tulsa plays much faster than MTSU and I feel they can better the DD point spread here. How will LR defense rated #305 at 2pt% stop Rashard Smith. My problem here is that’s the only player on their team that I’m really digging to take advantage of LR’s poor defense in the paint. So I probably will not play this one…

West Virginia +2.5(-110)… Nothing like losing a road game prior to coming home vs a team well worth getting up for. That’s exactly what has happened here as West Virginia lost by 9 only 5 days ago to Mizzo on the road. Gonzaga does not play anywhere near the defense they did last year rated 122 spots worse in 2pt% def. Both teams are jump shooting teams that don’t defend the jump shots well at all. Tough game when speaking numbers but when speaking spots this game reeks like a prime spot for WV to smack Gonzaga upside the head at home..

Kentucky -11(-110)… UK seems to be getting better with each game as they’re super young. The talent is there to take out a defenseless Boise St squad that looks to just outscore you. Good luck at Rupp Arena after UK is coming off a loss with prior game being on the road to a good team (Baylor)…

Utah -17(-110)… Utah = #1 2pt% vs Idaho St = #341 at defending the 2pt shot. But even that may not be enough for me to wager on. Too many points to lay IMO…

NJIT +14.5(-110)… Seton Halls pace of #216 and offense of #158  and defense of #117 is not a team built to cover DD point spreads. Fuquan Edwin sprained his ankle in the 1h of their game vs Long Island and never returned to the game. He also missed the next game vs Rutgers. It’s unclear to me if he’s going to play tonight but even if he does I like my chances with NJIT. Damon Lynn is an assassin from the 3pt line and handles the rock very well for a freshman for the Highlanders. But NJIT has their own issues as Ky Howard may as well miss this game…

California -14.5(-110)… Standard numbers tell me to lay the points here. But I hate being standard and frankly Cal has been unproven lately losing 3 of their last 4…
 
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Posted: #19
You can find me on twitter @Oddsbuster or visit my website at 

https://oddsbustersports.com/accessPlans.asp
 
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Posted: #20
OKC-3.5
WVA und 154
Utah-17
Heat+4
Good luck
 
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Posted: #21
Good trends presented off a Pacers loss last year. 


However, 8 of those 12 teams they defeated were non-playoff teams. Of the 3 playoff teams(Mil, Atl, Hou, Mem) only Memphis had a winning road record. 

Of note, none of these 12 wins came against the other top 8 teams in terms of playoff seedings. I think their remarkable home record off losses last year was just as much a function of scheduling as it was talent. 

Miami is much better than any of those 12 teams, last year or currently.

 
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Posted: #22
Of the 4 playoff teams, I meant...
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Good trends presented off a Pacers loss last year. 


However, 8 of those 12 teams they defeated were non-playoff teams. Of the 3 playoff teams(Mil, Atl, Hou, Mem) only Memphis had a winning road record. 

Of note, none of these 12 wins came against the other top 8 teams in terms of playoff seedings. I think their remarkable home record off losses last year was just as much a function of scheduling as it was talent. 

Miami is much better than any of those 12 teams, last year or currently.

This is absolutely true. But 9 of those 12 games also seen spread much higher than that of tonight's game as a result of this...
 
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Just a retched start...
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