Posted:
#51
NCAAB Leans & info on all games below:
Arkansas Little-Rock +23(-110)… The potential is there for Memphis to cover this number. Arkansas Little-Rock’s only D-1 win comes vs a team that only has 1 D-1 win themselves. 4 of the 4 Little-Rock losses this year have come to top #150 teams by margins of defeat of 30 to Florida, 17 to MTSU, 20 to Okie St & 14 to Tulsa. Some would actually consider that competing for Little-Rock, given their opponents…
But...
When Little-Rock played Tulsa, Tulsa had Oklahoma on deck. When Little-Rock played MTSU, MTSU had Florida on deck. Hence the 14pt loss vs Oklahoma & the 17pt loss to MTSU. Both well considerably less than today’s 23pt spread set. What concerns me here is the fact that Memphis has Florida on deck in 4 days while Little-Rock has Jacksonville St on deck in 7 days. So the effort from Memphis could easily fade away in the 2H with a big lead. Also Memphis runs an offense at around the tempo as Oklahoma (OU=12 Mem=31) with close to the same off eff ratings (OU=27 Mem=24). Oklahoma beat Little-Rock 101-80 as 15pt favs at home. So believing that Memphis is worthy of being favored by 8 more pts here than Oklahoma was at home who only had Mercer on deck compared to Memphis having Florida on deck is really hard for me to believe. Both Oklahoma & Memphis struggle’s come on 2pt% defense rated #124 for OU & #191 for Memphis and that’s exactly where Will Neighbor & James White can take advantage. Memphis is not beating teams by playing defense but more so by pushing the tempo. That’s just how Josh Pastner coaches. I’m sure Pastner will rack up another loss to a top 25 team in 4 days in Florida. That said with that in mind leaving the back door more than open more than a possibility for today’s game vs Little-Rock…
I think most bettors are going to over-react here to Memphis somehow pulling off a win coming back from double digit deficit to Oklahoma St. Hence the reason this number is greater than -20 and not less than -20…
Elon +14.5(-110)… I WILL NOT underestimate this ELON basketball team. They have size with 6’10’’ Troutman and his 58 for 102 2pt FG’s. They have shooters with Koch, Hamilton & Samson who are a combined 64 for 128 from 3pt% = 50%. Also Elon will have 8 players dress tonight that all have 100+ offensive rating per kenpom.com tonight to most likely just 5 Colorado players is Wesley Gordon misses another game (He hasn’t practiced all week so that looks like the scenario). But please keep in mind that Colorado did beat Kansas w/o Wesley Gordon. This is the 1st of 2 tough road games for Elon with the next vs Georgetown in 4 days so I suspect they look better in the first roady as opposed to possible being tired in the 2nd roady in 4 days. Colorado has #3 Okie St on deck, and albeit that game is in 8 days, Colorado better be ready for a team like Elon who can score the rock. Elon’s 3 D-1 losses are to teams that are currently 19-7su this year. I’m not alarmed or overreacting to their loss to Metro St who’s only losses thus far are a 3pt loss to Rhode Island and a 3pt loss to #5 Western Washington who is currently undefeated in D-2 play. Metro St is proving to be a good basketball team so it’s understandable to not just overreact to seeing that tough loss on Elon’s schedule. Colorado is most likely high in emotions at the moment and this game sandwiched in-between Kansas & Okie St on the schedule could bite them if they’re not 100% focused. I like the pts but not the ML.
My definition of a sandwich game is any team rated #100 or worse per kenpom being played in the middle of 2 teams rated inside the top #75. This happened 3 times last season for Colorado and resulted in the following.
Colorado beat #101 USC 66-60 but failed to cover -8 after playing #68 Arizona St with #45 UCLA after USC…
Colorado lost su to #108 Utah 55-58 also failing to cover the -5 after playing #56 California with #28 Oregon to follow that Utah game…
Colorado beat #108 Utah 60-50 but failed to cover the -12 after playing #68 Arizona St with #44 Stanford to follow the Utah game…
So last season Colorado went a clean crisp 0-3ats in this situation holding truth to the fact that they are indeed vulnerable to lessor teams in tough situations…
Iowa St -4(-110)… Ah the most popular game on the wagering card today by most IMO. And most likely a game I will chose not to wager on. Why? Because although both teams play great offensively and do so at a rather fast pace (boy teams in top 50 in tempo), I just feel these 2 teams to be very tough to find match up values. I’m not getting enough points to take Iowa because Iowa St has revenge going for them and I’m actually scared that Iowa St may indeed struggle later on in this game based on Iowa’s very deep depth chart. That said Iowa St has a long list of shooters ready to go all night long if needs be. I’m a bit shocker to see this total touch the 160’s but completely understand why. If you must have a lean here I’d reluctantly side with the small home fav even though it’s moved from -2.5 to -4 recently...
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