Niagara +5.5(-110) & over 166(-110)...If there was ever a spot that could be good for the Niagara team it’s gotta be this spot catching +5.5 at home vs a horrible defense. Here’s the 2pt% defense rates that Niagara has faced thus far:
#117, #144, #32, #271, #150, #41, #299, #140, #141 & #197
Where does Davidson fall on this list? They rate #346 defending the 2pt shot and #319 defending the 3pt shot. Both the worst #’s defensively that Niagara will have seen this year thus far. The issues is that Niagara is really just an awful basketball team with little to any half court offense at all needing a high percentage of their points to come from pushing the tempo racing up and down the court with the #9 tempo. Hence the reason why I like over 166…
Duquesne +7(-110)… Talk about some large road chalk here.Penn St plays Pittsburgh tough for 50% of a basketball game and the market reacts like this. That’s just how things happen in this world. Penn St has a great PG in Tim Frazier & a pretty decent shooter in DJ Newbill but their post play is very inconsistent from Taylor & Jack. I like Duquesne in this spot on an inflated number…
North Dakota St +7(-110)… The Bison pretty much return their whole team from last years 24 win squad. They’re currently the #6 off eff team from 2pt% but their defense has been atrocious thus far at #247 from 3pt% & #284 from 2pt%. Hard to back those numbers on the road in South Bend vs a decent Irish squad…
North Dakota +3(-110)… Not sure who made this schedule for North Dakota but so far they have played teams that rate #9, #81, #140, #24, #92 & #57 and now will play Bowling Green rated #227 a team that has proven complete offensive inefficiency thus far at 61.6ppg in 6 of their 8 games played vs top 200 teams. North Dakota should be battle tested for this game and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see North Dakota win on the road…
Rutgers +3.5(-110)… The status of both TJ Bray & Jimmy Sherburne should be major concerns here. They both misses there last game vs Fairleigh Dickinson a game in which they won easily. But their production was needed in the Mason & Bucknell wins as those 2 combined for 48pts, 17rbs & 14ast in those wins. So laying road chalk here may be very tough w/o those 2 players…
Bryant +18(-110)… Alex Ffrancis & Dyami Starks wil have to play nearly perfect basketball to stay within 10-15pts IMO. But they may be able to field mistakes in this game and keep it within 20 with near just good basketball. But that said there is just not much size on Bryant to take advantage in the paint where the Bucks weaker set is. Very tough game to handicap with a well set number IMO. So I’ll lean to the pts by default. That said everyone knows about Ohio St’s guard play and defense by now but their offense still fields question marks at this point. But those questions are fading with each game played…
Milwaukee +17(-110)… The Badgers defense is not as good as the perception IMO. Market perception has had them notched as top tier defense the past couple of season. And that was true but most of that was credited to their super slow tempo. The year their 2pt% defense has taken a hit rating just #94 & #137 defending the 3pt%. The Panthers can score from 2pt% at #57 and hit the occasional 3 ball at #120. 17pts seems a but of a stretch here for a team that doesn’t posses a superior defense and holds a super slow pace of #315…
Canisius/Buffalo under 152(-110)… Not exactly sure how the #246 2pt% off vs the #243 2p% off in game that features tempo’s of #53 & #157 warrant a total in the 150’s. I might be missing something here but that’s how the numbers read to me. Buffalo is that #53 tempo and only 1 of their games exceeded this total this year and that was vs the super fast #9 tempo from Niagara. Their other 5 D-1 games all stayed under this total at an average of 139.6ppg…
Denver +8.5(-110)… Denver is not really this bad. They’ve had a super tough draw of games to start the season with 5 losses vs teams that are currently 34-14su vs D-1 teams. Colorado St only has 2 wins thus far vs teams with a winning record vs D-1 teams. Those wins are vs Northern Colorado & New Mexico St. Also Colorado St loss by a combined 50pts margin of defeat to Gonzaga & UTEP, JUST SO YOU KNOW!!! Exactly!!! As long as Chris Udofia keeps playing this Denver team will compete in games...
New Mexico St +14(-110) & under 144.5(-110)… Arizona’s 2pt% defense = #14, New Mexico St’s 2pt% defense = #35. We have the #113 tempo vs the #173 tempo so super fast is not in the making. Arizona has the #28 2pt% off and New Mexico St has the #62 2pt% off and that’s what will keep me from wagering this game. +14 could be a good spot though with Arizona having Michigan on deck in 3 days on the road…