Posted:
#76
Actual NCAAB wagers on:
South Carolina/Manhattan under 139(-110)…
Toledo ML(-130)…
New Mexico St +9(-110) & ML(+350)…
Yale +10(-110) & ML(+425)…
Central Michigan +2.5(-110)…
Obviously the ML dog wagers are played for a fraction of the spread wager…
NCAAB leans info on:
**Cincy/Pitt under 130.5(-110)… Cincy as played 3 kenpom top 100 teams so far. The results total wise have been:
125 vs NC St
117 @New Mexico
111 vs Xavier
All 3 of those teams tempo’s are much faster than the #275 of Pitt. Throw in the #251 adjusted tempo of Cincy and the #252 2pt% offense and we got ourselves what should be an offensive struggle on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden…
*St Bonaventure +5.5(-110)… This is pure reaction and part knowing that anytime Wake Forest is laying points this year it should be second guessed. WF was favored by more than a bucket in just 5 of a possible 29 lined games last season. St Bonnies is starting to play good basketball. Scary number here…
**FSU -9.5(-110)… Looks like too many points to me even though offense could be in question here for Charlotte. What scares me is FSU is really good at defending the 2pt% shot and Charlotte is not a good jump shooting team to off set that. Think the books did well here and FSU’s defense and size may take a DD win at home. The teams FSU has lost to all have much better offense than Charlotte at #19, #27 & #22. Charlotte offense is rated #158 overall…
***Yale +10(-110) & ML(+425)… Providence is just not the same team without their super talented PG Kris Dunn. Let me know when he returns and I’ll contemplate making a wager on the Friars again. Until then it’s either fade or pass. And I think it’s play on here as Providence has now lost 4 in a row including all 4 ats losers as the last 3 were all without Dunn playing. As a matte rod fact, Providence has only covered 1 spread in regulation play this year without the services of Kriss Dunn and that was as -16.5 favs vs Marist in a 93-48 blowout in which Cotton & Fortune shot 2 for 11 from 3pt range, The Friars just jack up the 3 ball. And when you don’t play good defense or in this case are missing your facilitator, things become tough to handle...
**Georgetown -14(-110)… Someone asked me on my last wager why I liked Elon so much catching +14.5 @ Colorado. The answer was simple as Elon was/is a very solid jump shooting team at #23 from 3pt% and Colorado was/is just horrible at defending them at #202. Elon lost that game but Elon went 13 for 32 from 3pt range and missed a wide open 3 ball with just under 30secs, what would have been the a spread covering make if it went in. That’s the life I live from time to time in this business. Georgetown is #2 at defending the 3 ball and I’m getting the same exact price as I was in that game in Colorado. Repeat that last sentence a couple of times just to validate…
*South Carolina -3(-110) & ***under (139)… Sure anyone who has just played Baylor, Clemson & Okie St is not going to look good numbers wise at this point and yes the turnovers from South Carolina scares me because Manhattan and that pressure D is rated very good at forcing them at #67. Both offense's have so much to prove with not so much talent on board…
*VCU -18(-110)… Wofford’s turnover rate is high as they lack good guard play…
*North Florida +24.5(-110)… The MSU offense has been completely out os sink lately shooting 44% from 2pt% vs Oakland and 40% vs UNC. MSU is good for some slipping during the regular season while still winning basketball games…
*South Florida -9(-110)… FGCU should have did what ever to keep Christophe Varidel from transferring to Chaminade. Although if I had the opportunity to go play basketball for 1 season at a high level in Hawaii, it would surely take an awful lot to stop me from doing so. And clearly no college team has that kind of legal backing to do so. The Eagles may get better as time goes on and may do well in the Atlantic Sun. But until then I’ll look to fade if anything for a few more games until conference play begins…
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