good luck philly -- I hope you hit 'em all tonight, and sorry for trolling a bit (multi account users is a covers thing that happens unfortunately) -- appreciate the thoughtful response good luck with the adventure
thank you sir, I wish you luck. May we run like usain bolt :)
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Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:
good luck philly -- I hope you hit 'em all tonight, and sorry for trolling a bit (multi account users is a covers thing that happens unfortunately) -- appreciate the thoughtful response good luck with the adventure
thank you sir, I wish you luck. May we run like usain bolt :)
Teasers are worse. Most often, if you hit the tease it is a winning parlay also. But certainly a money grabber.
Thank you for the response. I have a question for you guys. When I first found covers a year or so back I was doing much reading and learning, etc. I ran into various articles on the net about teaser bets and parlays and the like.
It seems that, at lease according to what I read, there are two camps in this discussion. Some cappers feel that they are sucker bets, however some cappers feel they are worthwhile.
Are there really two separate camps in this topic? or is this kind of a solved issue in the betting world and these things don't work?
appreciate any responses.
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Quote Originally Posted by RodWoman:
Teasers are worse. Most often, if you hit the tease it is a winning parlay also. But certainly a money grabber.
Thank you for the response. I have a question for you guys. When I first found covers a year or so back I was doing much reading and learning, etc. I ran into various articles on the net about teaser bets and parlays and the like.
It seems that, at lease according to what I read, there are two camps in this discussion. Some cappers feel that they are sucker bets, however some cappers feel they are worthwhile.
Are there really two separate camps in this topic? or is this kind of a solved issue in the betting world and these things don't work?
Teasers are worse. Most often, if you hit the tease it is a winning parlay also. But certainly a money grabber.
Do we have to evaluate teasers as -ev in a vacuum, or does it make sense to game specific situations. For example, I felt like the mavs would win big, but not by 13. I also leaned heavy towards the warriors but also felt they would win by less. why wouldn't I, from an ev point of view, tease it in the direction I feel its going to go?
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Quote Originally Posted by RodWoman:
Teasers are worse. Most often, if you hit the tease it is a winning parlay also. But certainly a money grabber.
Do we have to evaluate teasers as -ev in a vacuum, or does it make sense to game specific situations. For example, I felt like the mavs would win big, but not by 13. I also leaned heavy towards the warriors but also felt they would win by less. why wouldn't I, from an ev point of view, tease it in the direction I feel its going to go?
Yes teasers are super negative EV. Adding 6 - 8 points in a NBA game which will have 200 points scored between the two teams but can cost you your entire ticket. Parlays are also negative EV. If a teaser is choosing the correct choice twice between two 50 50 decisions it should pay 4 times your bet. It's the same as flipping a coin twice and you have to choose correctly both times to win. Even with juice parlays should pay more but people can't do math so they lower the pay out.
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Yes teasers are super negative EV. Adding 6 - 8 points in a NBA game which will have 200 points scored between the two teams but can cost you your entire ticket. Parlays are also negative EV. If a teaser is choosing the correct choice twice between two 50 50 decisions it should pay 4 times your bet. It's the same as flipping a coin twice and you have to choose correctly both times to win. Even with juice parlays should pay more but people can't do math so they lower the pay out.
Yes teasers are super negative EV. Adding 6 - 8 points in a NBA game which will have 200 points scored between the two teams but can cost you your entire ticket. Parlays are also negative EV. If a teaser is choosing the correct choice twice between two 50 50 decisions it should pay 4 times your bet. It's the same as flipping a coin twice and you have to choose correctly both times to win. Even with juice parlays should pay more but people can't do math so they lower the pay out.
I see, makes sense. informative, thank you.
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Quote Originally Posted by Degen55:
Yes teasers are super negative EV. Adding 6 - 8 points in a NBA game which will have 200 points scored between the two teams but can cost you your entire ticket. Parlays are also negative EV. If a teaser is choosing the correct choice twice between two 50 50 decisions it should pay 4 times your bet. It's the same as flipping a coin twice and you have to choose correctly both times to win. Even with juice parlays should pay more but people can't do math so they lower the pay out.
I actually do play on Bovada and yes it's soft. I got 2nd in the 200K Gtd BSPO event back in April for a good chunk of change. Daily tournament final tabler here as well... I probably won't be at Parx on Saturday, got so much other garbage to do, but my name is Tru, I'll ping you next time I'll get up there.
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Hey phillybettor,
I actually do play on Bovada and yes it's soft. I got 2nd in the 200K Gtd BSPO event back in April for a good chunk of change. Daily tournament final tabler here as well... I probably won't be at Parx on Saturday, got so much other garbage to do, but my name is Tru, I'll ping you next time I'll get up there.
heat + 2.5 vs the hawks. The heat are coming off an embarrassing performance against the pacers in which they never made it off the bus. I think they rebound tonight and beat the hawks handily.
the cavs -5.5 vs the Celtics. Boston has won 3 in a row vs the cavs, but that changes tonight as this cavs team is a world away from 12 and 13. Cavs are starting to gel right now and are going to make it 3 wins in a row tonight and start rolling.
cavs and Celtics 212.5 OVER - Both teams are meh on the defensive end, the Celtics just allowed 109 to a terrible OKC squad. I see a 115-108 type game.
finally I will continue fading the sixers as I will do all year long.
Houston -17 vs my terrible sixer squad. I have a sixers tattoo on my leg haha :)
also going under 205 in this game as I don't see the sixers scoring more than 80 points.
glglglglglgl
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tru,
sounds good let me know.
alright my picks for tonight are as follows:
heat + 2.5 vs the hawks. The heat are coming off an embarrassing performance against the pacers in which they never made it off the bus. I think they rebound tonight and beat the hawks handily.
the cavs -5.5 vs the Celtics. Boston has won 3 in a row vs the cavs, but that changes tonight as this cavs team is a world away from 12 and 13. Cavs are starting to gel right now and are going to make it 3 wins in a row tonight and start rolling.
cavs and Celtics 212.5 OVER - Both teams are meh on the defensive end, the Celtics just allowed 109 to a terrible OKC squad. I see a 115-108 type game.
finally I will continue fading the sixers as I will do all year long.
Houston -17 vs my terrible sixer squad. I have a sixers tattoo on my leg haha :)
also going under 205 in this game as I don't see the sixers scoring more than 80 points.
also going pelicans -7 vs the twolves. They've been terrible this year. One redeeming win at Brooklyn, and that's it. They've lost their last 3 by an average of 9 points and are on a 3 game losing streak. this is my 3 unit bet of the night, the others are 1 unit.
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also going pelicans -7 vs the twolves. They've been terrible this year. One redeeming win at Brooklyn, and that's it. They've lost their last 3 by an average of 9 points and are on a 3 game losing streak. this is my 3 unit bet of the night, the others are 1 unit.
also going pelicans -7 vs the twolves. They've been terrible this year. One redeeming win at Brooklyn, and that's it. They've lost their last 3 by an average of 9 points and are on a 3 game losing streak. this is my 3 unit bet of the night, the others are 1 unit.
So what happened to cappin for living? Mission aborted?
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Quote Originally Posted by phillybettor:
also going pelicans -7 vs the twolves. They've been terrible this year. One redeeming win at Brooklyn, and that's it. They've lost their last 3 by an average of 9 points and are on a 3 game losing streak. this is my 3 unit bet of the night, the others are 1 unit.
So what happened to cappin for living? Mission aborted?
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