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Cavs Championship futures ticketholders?Save yourself the grief and put those babies in the shredder

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hradekbr

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 6186

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 3:28 AM ET #51

Can I trade my Cavs in for the Warriors. I'd much rather root for and have to watch the Dubs every night. The team is downright fun

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rangerz2478

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 17830

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 3:35 AM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

How did they beat the market? Do you know what an unrealized gain is?

Until you sell a stock you get this much for your 30-1 stock : $0.

Longer you wait? Tougher it gets to buy out and Rangerz noted that you could buy out right now with a profit.

There isn't a single person in the entire world buying out now and won't be in the near future, if at all.

Massively disagree Scal. Those who bought the 30-1 and view gambling as an investment will absolutely sell now if they can get fair value. The casual bettor as you referred to won't. But the investor type who does this for a living will 100% be out of the wager.

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rangerz2478

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 17830

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 3:43 AM ET #53

I'm sure there are SOME out there who did the math on the 30-1. They probably figured the Cavs would be around a 4-1 sell to win the title with Lebron. Therefore, if they believed the Cavs had a better than 5-1 chance to sign Lebron, their money would be made the SECOND Lebron signed. These kinds of people have the resources to be able to "sell" of course. The casual squares wouldn't even know how to sell if you explained it in a book. So you are definitely part right on that.

My plays are based on numbers/math, yours are based on opinion/capping. You are good at what you do Scal, but it's inevitable we were going to bump heads in this thread.

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Gary_Hobson

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 961

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 5:31 AM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1. This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.

Finally someone who understands the concept of value and trying to beat the market. Holy sh*t the stupidity in this thread is giving me a severe migraine.

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whqodus

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 506

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 5:31 AM ET #55

marion should've stayed in Dallas

Carlisle just knows how to use players

ex: Brandon Wright, Aminu, Barea, Villanueva, Chandler, etc...

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 7:28 AM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

Massively disagree Scal. Those who bought the 30-1 and view gambling as an investment will absolutely sell now if they can get fair value. The casual bettor as you referred to won't. But the investor type who does this for a living will 100% be out of the wager.

Not a single soul is selling Rangerz.

Who is the guy that's selling? Some head of some betting syndicate? Is that the guy with the resources?

And who's left? Squares! Hundred dollar bettors!

How much can you put on a 30-1 future anyway? Vegas books won't take a lot of liability on a number like that. $500? $1,000?

Online books will take more but not much more. Wasn't it you that said Bovada, one of the biggest American books there is, limited you to $50 max bets? (If not it doesn't disprove my point). They limited me to a degree. And they are gonna take $2k $5k at 30-1 when they worry and cap a casual bettor? No way.

Which leaves squares and a few sharps who will ride it out. Because there really isn't that much at stake to a sharp. If he out $1,000 on it, it's worth 30k. Those guys are putting 5 figure bets in on games all day long.

Hedging out of a 30-1 bet? A bet that isn't even close to finished? No way. They have more important things to worry about.

But to the square, this is their mother load. And they don't know when or how to hedge, and don't even have the money to do so.

And all the bets will end up where in the end as 95% ride them out?

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

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rangerz2478

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 17830

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 9:46 AM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Not a single soul is selling Rangerz.

Who is the guy that's selling? Some head of some betting syndicate? Is that the guy with the resources?

And who's left? Squares! Hundred dollar bettors!

How much can you put on a 30-1 future anyway? Vegas books won't take a lot of liability on a number like that. $500? $1,000?

Online books will take more but not much more. Wasn't it you that said Bovada, one of the biggest American books there is, limited you to $50 max bets? (If not it doesn't disprove my point). They limited me to a degree. And they are gonna take $2k $5k at 30-1 when they worry and cap a casual bettor? No way.

Which leaves squares and a few sharps who will ride it out. Because there really isn't that much at stake to a sharp. If he out $1,000 on it, it's worth 30k. Those guys are putting 5 figure bets in on games all day long.

Hedging out of a 30-1 bet? A bet that isn't even close to finished? No way. They have more important things to worry about.

But to the square, this is their mother load. And they don't know when or how to hedge, and don't even have the money to do so.

And all the bets will end up where in the end as 95% ride them out?

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

Whether during an off season, or over the course of a game, I make bets ALL THE TIME with the intent of selling instantly the moment the price drops to my expected number. So had I been one of the lucky ones with 30-1, I would be selling.

To answer your question about bovada, yes they limited me to peanuts across the board. My account is pretty much useless. Obviously getting enough of a bet down isn't an easy thing, but that sure as hell doesn't mean it COULDN'T be done.

Point is like Michfan said, they beat the market. For an average $1000 per game bettor who was able to get down $1000 on the 30-1 future, you don't think they'd find a way to sell the bet for $5000 right now? (or pretty much immediately after the signing) I would, and I'm sure there's others out there who think along the same lines.

Were in full agreement that the average bettor is a complete square. He took a shot on the 30-1 with no knowledge of what the price WOULD drop to. Just took a shot hoping to get lucky. 95% of bettors full into this category. But the rest of the 5% are out there, I can assure you.

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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Not a single soul is selling Rangerz.

Who is the guy that's selling? Some head of some betting syndicate? Is that the guy with the resources?

And who's left? Squares! Hundred dollar bettors!

How much can you put on a 30-1 future anyway? Vegas books won't take a lot of liability on a number like that. $500? $1,000?

Online books will take more but not much more. Wasn't it you that said Bovada, one of the biggest American books there is, limited you to $50 max bets? (If not it doesn't disprove my point). They limited me to a degree. And they are gonna take $2k $5k at 30-1 when they worry and cap a casual bettor? No way.

Which leaves squares and a few sharps who will ride it out. Because there really isn't that much at stake to a sharp. If he out $1,000 on it, it's worth 30k. Those guys are putting 5 figure bets in on games all day long.

Hedging out of a 30-1 bet? A bet that isn't even close to finished? No way. They have more important things to worry about.

But to the square, this is their mother load. And they don't know when or how to hedge, and don't even have the money to do so.

And all the bets will end up where in the end as 95% ride them out?

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

Whether during an off season, or over the course of a game, I make bets ALL THE TIME with the intent of selling instantly the moment the price drops to my expected number. So had I been one of the lucky ones with 30-1, I would be selling.

To answer your question about bovada, yes they limited me to peanuts across the board. My account is pretty much useless. Obviously getting enough of a bet down isn't an easy thing, but that sure as hell doesn't mean it COULDN'T be done.

Point is like Michfan said, they beat the market. For an average $1000 per game bettor who was able to get down $1000 on the 30-1 future, you don't think they'd find a way to sell the bet for $5000 right now? (or pretty much immediately after the signing) I would, and I'm sure there's others out there who think along the same lines.

Were in full agreement that the average bettor is a complete square. He took a shot on the 30-1 with no knowledge of what the price WOULD drop to. Just took a shot hoping to get lucky. 95% of bettors full into this category. But the rest of the 5% are out there, I can assure you.

thorpe

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 12927

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 9:54 AM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

you don't think they'd find a way to sell the bet for $5000 right now?

Wouldn't that be "selling low"?

No matter how bad the Cavs are now, they will get better and they will make the playoffs in a weak EC where they won't be a significant dog to any team IMO until the finals.

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rangerz2478

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 17830

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 12:10 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

Wouldn't that be "selling low"?

No matter how bad the Cavs are now, they will get better and they will make the playoffs in a weak EC where they won't be a significant dog to any team IMO until the finals.

Well, by $5000 I meant $5000 profit. So technically speaking it'd be selling for $6000. I was using the -400 as a safe estimate, the current 5dimes price is -350 field so you would make even more.

Regardless, I was simply talking about those who made the bet pre-signing, and immediately sold post-signing. It's definitely my opinion that they will turn it around and are easily the team to beat in the east but I'm trying to leave out my opinion of the team and just focus on the odds.

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OGsimpson

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 97

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 12:29 PM ET #60

Scala are you butthurt that the knicks are even 10 times worse still or something?

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benhogan76

Legend

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 58614

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 2:48 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

11/21/14

Wizards - 91 Cavs - 78

I'll post some of the stinkers during the season. This was a real doozy.

The lowlights:

13 4th quarter point vs. Washington

Lebron completely out of sorts with an lackadaisical 8-21.

Klove - 3-8 and 8 pts

Tristan Thompson - 4

Miller -3

Waiters - 22 minutes and two...count em two points.

A horrendous 9 bench points

One loss does not a futures ticket get determined on but Lebron had that look tonight, that 'ol fingernail biting look he had early in his career where he knew, he just knew his team, although it would excel at some point, just wouldn't make it over that hump.

I wonder how many bettors are selling off their 30-1 right now (no one).

I wonder how many will sell off before the all-star break (no one).

I wonder what those bettors will do and how they will hedge when the Cavs meet the Wizards, or the Raptors or the Bulls in, potentially, an early round of the playoffs, a round they could easily get knocked off in.

I wonder how much the average square will 'sell off' that 30-1 with the Cavs as dogs, hence, they'll have to bet into a negative moneyline (costing them even more), when they purchased their original future for $100/$200/$300.

Will they deposit $1,000/$2,000 into their account to hedge in the second round (no folks, they won't).

Folks, the logistics of hedging, the reality of hedging, is quite complicated when you have to move cash you might not have and/or are willing to lose (that is, the Cavs can certainly win the second round matchup and you are then down 1k or 2k and still hold a 30-1 ticket that hasn't cashed yet).

In the end, very few will hedge, very few will buy out effectively, leaving one sound for the majority of Cavs futures bettor holders:

The Sound of Music to Vegas...

The Sound....of a Shredder...

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

it was game 11, means nothing. Who outside of Bulls has any chance to get to finals? Raps? We saw how that went last year, nba has no desire for Raps to be contender. Wiz? Not close to being ready. Who am I forgetting?

No way? Way