Posted:
#1
32-32
12-7 2017 Playoffs
The pick:
Warriors -9 over Cavs
~Wow! Is all I have to say to this line.
I've said it endlessly these playoffs. Home to road switches in the playoffs shift the line +6 to +10 (and have gotten as high as +11.5 in these playoffs).
This line has shifted TWO AND A HALF POINTS for home to road from the opening line of 6.5 to 9 (and 2 if you got in at 8.5).
On that basis ALONE, this is a play.
If you look at it from a square perspective, you'll never lay NINE to LBJ in the playoffs, but if you look at it from a home to road line switch, you are getting an immense discount!
Even if you view the game 4 line as a byproduct of a Vegas "Cavs give up" line, it is STILL UNDER the lower bound of 6.5 from the +3 in Game 3 the Cavs got (+3 + 6.5 points added on the LOWER BOUND = 9.5. +10 is +13! or even +16 on the Game 2 line!) 9 is GREAT. No matter if you compare this line to game 3 or 4, the home road switch is damn good.
I honestly thought this line would be 11.5 or 12 and to see 9? Thank you very much....
~3-1 Comeback
For an entire YEAR, this is what the Warriors had to hear about. They screwed themselves without Draymond and got extremely unlucky with injuries to Bogut, Curry and Iggy (who was Lebron's only defender).
Now? 100% healthy and they have Durant (to guard LBJ as well).
And regardless of the outcome of this past game, Durant is unstoppable. It is simply a matter of him hitting the shot or not. He will be the MVP of the series by a country mile.
After the Warriors lost in Game 7 last year, Draymond Green called Durant in the parking lot of Oracle Arena and petitioned him to come. He is here for THIS VERY MOMENT. IT ALL CULMINATES to this which was a theme of the Game 1 win (And I love the little footnote of Lebron's Halloween party mocking the 3-1 fallout of last year as icing on the cake.)
EVERYTHING pinnacles to the 3-1 and now the Warriors are home to drive a stake in the Cavs. And drive a stake in them they will.
~Fatigue factor
Lebron came into the game as a league leader in minutes in the regular season and the playoffs and lo and behold, it's only gotten worse. And add Irving to the list of fatigue.
"Well Scal, the game is three days away! That's a lot of days in between!" Yes it is, and this is GAME ONE HUNDRED of the season for the Cavs. And that MATTERS as the minutes continue to pile up.
Game 1 LBJ - 40 Irving -35 (in a blowout)
Game 2 LBJ - 39 Irving -40 (in a blowout)
Game 3 LBJ - 46 Irving -44
Game 4 LBJ - 41 Irving -41 (in a blowout...for the Cavs!)
Lue cannot and will not take LBJ out of the game. Or Kyrie for any extended stretch either. And the +/- stats bear out the problem as the Cavs are -31 with LBJ off the court (a 10-0 GS run in 2 measly minutes to sink my first Q bet when he was pulled last game too).
So what do you think will happen in Game 5? More of the same. MUCH MORE. MORE MORE MORE LBJ and Kyrie.
This is not coaching. This is leaving your stars on the floor because you can do no better. THERE IS NO PLAN but to play LBJ and Kyrie into the ground. And that will bite you hard at Oracle with the kill game on the line. And the Warriors have to win it. Because to head back to Cleveland up 3-2?...They will do everything they can to get it done Monday.
~Fouls
All I have to say is that the Cavs shot TWENTY TWO FT's in the FIRST QUARTER. That has to be a record (and they missed EIGHT!).
The FT shooting for the Cavs was so bad, they reversed that tech on Draymond to not have him thrown out as a wink and a nod giveback to GS in my opinion. Just conjecture but it makes sense given the way the NBA refs operate.
What if they didn't have those 22 FT's??? A 16-20 pt game the entire game turns into an 8-10 pt game with the Warriors 2 threes away from a nail biter. Those whistles were on the level of Kings Lakers Game 6 in 2002 fourth quarter Tim Doneghy fiasco. The quarter never ended and it got to a point where Lebron just said "Shi*, I'll just take it to the hole every time and wait for a whistle!" And he got every one.
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