This is highest total for any Cavs game all season and third highest for any Denver game(only the two Houston games were set higher). It's a full 10.5 points higher than their last meeting one month ago. Inflation anyone?
Purely contrarian play that goes against all recent numbers and has no real statistical basis.
Both teams have been extremely hot on offense and it might very well carry over into this evening.
I am wagering it won't. Regression to the mean has to happen at some point.
I am rolling with the under 216. Good luck if you decide to play it.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
At 216 currently.
This is highest total for any Cavs game all season and third highest for any Denver game(only the two Houston games were set higher). It's a full 10.5 points higher than their last meeting one month ago. Inflation anyone?
Purely contrarian play that goes against all recent numbers and has no real statistical basis.
Both teams have been extremely hot on offense and it might very well carry over into this evening.
I am wagering it won't. Regression to the mean has to happen at some point.
I am rolling with the under 216. Good luck if you decide to play it.
Yes!!!!!!! And Denver has Boston on the 2nd of b2b. I'm sure George Karl will be stressing DEFENSE with Boston next. I also see problems for Cleveland down low. I thought this was inflated at 214 and I was hoping it would go up and sure enough did. This is the type of game oddsmakers adjust early because they know the public will be heavy on the Over.
Bol mw. I'm on it too.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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Yes!!!!!!! And Denver has Boston on the 2nd of b2b. I'm sure George Karl will be stressing DEFENSE with Boston next. I also see problems for Cleveland down low. I thought this was inflated at 214 and I was hoping it would go up and sure enough did. This is the type of game oddsmakers adjust early because they know the public will be heavy on the Over.
Denver has averaged 114.2 points per game over their last 9 games.
Cleveland's games have gone over 217 points in their last 3 games, and 2 of those teams were Orlando and Charlotte. While the Cavaliers are averaging over 118 points per game in that span.
Cleveland has let the opposition shoot an ridiculous 51.3% from the field in their last 5 games. While they have shot better than 47%.
Denver has shot over 50% in its last 5 games, while giving up 47% to the opposition over that 5 game stretch.
I just don't see any reason to take the under here. I know about regression but I think you're picking a bad time to go against 2 incredibly hot teams right now. Neither of which play defense. All the numbers point to the over, not to mention the pace these 2 teams play at. The Cavaliers have hit their stride offensively and won't be stopped tonight.
I am going to POUND the over, half, game, both team totals.
GL either way
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Denver has averaged 114.2 points per game over their last 9 games.
Cleveland's games have gone over 217 points in their last 3 games, and 2 of those teams were Orlando and Charlotte. While the Cavaliers are averaging over 118 points per game in that span.
Cleveland has let the opposition shoot an ridiculous 51.3% from the field in their last 5 games. While they have shot better than 47%.
Denver has shot over 50% in its last 5 games, while giving up 47% to the opposition over that 5 game stretch.
I just don't see any reason to take the under here. I know about regression but I think you're picking a bad time to go against 2 incredibly hot teams right now. Neither of which play defense. All the numbers point to the over, not to mention the pace these 2 teams play at. The Cavaliers have hit their stride offensively and won't be stopped tonight.
I am going to POUND the over, half, game, both team totals.
Denver has averaged 114.2 points per game over their last 9 games.
Cleveland's games have gone over 217 points in their last 3 games, and 2 of those teams were Orlando and Charlotte. While the Cavaliers are averaging over 118 points per game in that span.
Cleveland has let the opposition shoot an ridiculous 51.3% from the field in their last 5 games. While they have shot better than 47%.
Denver has shot over 50% in its last 5 games, while giving up 47% to the opposition over that 5 game stretch.
I just don't see any reason to take the under here. I know about regression but I think you're picking a bad time to go against 2 incredibly hot teams right now. Neither of which play defense. All the numbers point to the over, not to mention the pace these 2 teams play at. The Cavaliers have hit their stride offensively and won't be stopped tonight.
I am going to POUND the over, half, game, both team totals.
GL either way
Good post. Hence, why I labeled my play contrarian. No other way to look at the numbers other than over, over, over.
We will see.
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Quote Originally Posted by NFLJOE:
Denver has averaged 114.2 points per game over their last 9 games.
Cleveland's games have gone over 217 points in their last 3 games, and 2 of those teams were Orlando and Charlotte. While the Cavaliers are averaging over 118 points per game in that span.
Cleveland has let the opposition shoot an ridiculous 51.3% from the field in their last 5 games. While they have shot better than 47%.
Denver has shot over 50% in its last 5 games, while giving up 47% to the opposition over that 5 game stretch.
I just don't see any reason to take the under here. I know about regression but I think you're picking a bad time to go against 2 incredibly hot teams right now. Neither of which play defense. All the numbers point to the over, not to mention the pace these 2 teams play at. The Cavaliers have hit their stride offensively and won't be stopped tonight.
I am going to POUND the over, half, game, both team totals.
GL either way
Good post. Hence, why I labeled my play contrarian. No other way to look at the numbers other than over, over, over.
@mellow_wolf Though I was leaning Under this game it does kinda scare me as well. I hope the public doesn't start moving towards the Under cause that wouldn't be a good sign.
What's your thoughts on the Utah/Sacramento total? I was leaning Utah and Under and thought you might have a good feel for this game. Seems less risky and the Kings becoming Supersonics. Players may not be too thrilled about that.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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@mellow_wolf Though I was leaning Under this game it does kinda scare me as well. I hope the public doesn't start moving towards the Under cause that wouldn't be a good sign.
What's your thoughts on the Utah/Sacramento total? I was leaning Utah and Under and thought you might have a good feel for this game. Seems less risky and the Kings becoming Supersonics. Players may not be too thrilled about that.
@mellow_wolf Though I was leaning Under this game it does kinda scare me as well. I hope the public doesn't start moving towards the Under cause that wouldn't be a good sign.
What's your thoughts on the Utah/Sacramento total? I was leaning Utah and Under and thought you might have a good feel for this game. Seems less risky and the Kings becoming Supersonics. Players may not be too thrilled about that.
No opinion on the Jazz/Kings total. It's hard to know what kind of effort will be put forth by Cousins, Evans and crew. They may very well have big plans to be in the club and sipping Dom tonight in solid preparation for the high scoring Beard and company tomorrow.
GL.
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Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:
@mellow_wolf Though I was leaning Under this game it does kinda scare me as well. I hope the public doesn't start moving towards the Under cause that wouldn't be a good sign.
What's your thoughts on the Utah/Sacramento total? I was leaning Utah and Under and thought you might have a good feel for this game. Seems less risky and the Kings becoming Supersonics. Players may not be too thrilled about that.
No opinion on the Jazz/Kings total. It's hard to know what kind of effort will be put forth by Cousins, Evans and crew. They may very well have big plans to be in the club and sipping Dom tonight in solid preparation for the high scoring Beard and company tomorrow.
@NFLJOE Don't you see some mismatches in this game? I'm not sure Cleveland will have enough of a post game without Varejao.
I like Denver -5.5 And Under 216
varejao has been out for over 2 weeks. the cavs have adjusted to his absence....im not saying its been a good adjustment! just saying they are learning to deal with him being out for the rest of the season. they are 6-1 to the over since varejao has been out, so it seems to me the adjustment has been to try and run more and score in the open floor, taking advantage of kyrie irvings athleticism. total pts in their last 3 home games have been 225, 217, and 227. on the 25th their first game without varejao, the total was 221 at home vs milwaukee... playing against denver, there is no way i could play this under. i think i just talked myself into playing the over of 216. i know denver has boston on tap, and this is the start of a road trip for them, but playing this over is strictly a function of the numbers and recent history without varejao in the lineup, which also hurts the cavs defensively, who give up over 100 ppg at home, and i can always make a 2nd half "adjustment" of my own!! ... GL gentlemen..
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Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:
@NFLJOE Don't you see some mismatches in this game? I'm not sure Cleveland will have enough of a post game without Varejao.
I like Denver -5.5 And Under 216
varejao has been out for over 2 weeks. the cavs have adjusted to his absence....im not saying its been a good adjustment! just saying they are learning to deal with him being out for the rest of the season. they are 6-1 to the over since varejao has been out, so it seems to me the adjustment has been to try and run more and score in the open floor, taking advantage of kyrie irvings athleticism. total pts in their last 3 home games have been 225, 217, and 227. on the 25th their first game without varejao, the total was 221 at home vs milwaukee... playing against denver, there is no way i could play this under. i think i just talked myself into playing the over of 216. i know denver has boston on tap, and this is the start of a road trip for them, but playing this over is strictly a function of the numbers and recent history without varejao in the lineup, which also hurts the cavs defensively, who give up over 100 ppg at home, and i can always make a 2nd half "adjustment" of my own!! ... GL gentlemen..
I'd put Chandler on Irving and see what happens. But that obviously may not be the plan.
i dont see how that would help. if chandler takes irving, then who do you put the 5 ft 11 ty lawson on?.... dion waiters, whose 6 ft 4.. i dont think so. if they did, i would just clear out for waiters and let him post up lawson down low. AND by playing chandler more, do you sit Iguodala down?...
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Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:
I'd put Chandler on Irving and see what happens. But that obviously may not be the plan.
i dont see how that would help. if chandler takes irving, then who do you put the 5 ft 11 ty lawson on?.... dion waiters, whose 6 ft 4.. i dont think so. if they did, i would just clear out for waiters and let him post up lawson down low. AND by playing chandler more, do you sit Iguodala down?...
Look at Denver's last nine games and see where they were played. They have been on a long home stand and now travel to Cleveland. They don't score as many points on the road. Eight of Denver's last nine games have been at home. Yes, they do score a lot of points but average 100.2 on the road. Cleveland averages 98.5 points for at hoje. The points allowed for Denver on the road and Cleveland are similar as well (102.1 Denver and 100.1 Cleveland). The line is inflated. It will stay under. I am figuring this game finishes with around 208 total points scored. Good luck.
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Look at Denver's last nine games and see where they were played. They have been on a long home stand and now travel to Cleveland. They don't score as many points on the road. Eight of Denver's last nine games have been at home. Yes, they do score a lot of points but average 100.2 on the road. Cleveland averages 98.5 points for at hoje. The points allowed for Denver on the road and Cleveland are similar as well (102.1 Denver and 100.1 Cleveland). The line is inflated. It will stay under. I am figuring this game finishes with around 208 total points scored. Good luck.
Denver has averaged 114.2 points per game over their last 9 games.
Denver has shot over 50% in its last 5 games, while giving up 47% to the opposition over that 5 game stretch.
Denver-8 of those 9 games were home games, where they play better and more fast paced to try and take advantage of their altitude. But when they play road games it seems like they focus on stronger defense. Their one road game was at houston (total set at 218) and that game went under (only 200 pts total).
under 215.5 for me tonight.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by NFLJOE:
Denver has averaged 114.2 points per game over their last 9 games.
Denver has shot over 50% in its last 5 games, while giving up 47% to the opposition over that 5 game stretch.
Denver-8 of those 9 games were home games, where they play better and more fast paced to try and take advantage of their altitude. But when they play road games it seems like they focus on stronger defense. Their one road game was at houston (total set at 218) and that game went under (only 200 pts total).
Riceboi Noticed you posted 215.5. I was leaning Under but I don't play that total unless I play the Over. Did the number just drop?
215.5 at 5dimes right now, I don't what it was before and I don't know book mellow uses. Gonna assume it dropped half a point, I still like under though.
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Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:
Riceboi Noticed you posted 215.5. I was leaning Under but I don't play that total unless I play the Over. Did the number just drop?
215.5 at 5dimes right now, I don't what it was before and I don't know book mellow uses. Gonna assume it dropped half a point, I still like under though.
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