Froggy's High Correlation Picks

NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)

SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating)

SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating)

Got a good flow going. 4 games all at once, and didn't get overwhelmed. Should be able to cruise the rest of the night. Good luck, all!

MIN + 10

MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5

Tonight's Recap (until the last game of the night)

ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating)

ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating)

NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)

SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating)

SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating)

MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating)

MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating)

@Froggy80 could you explain whats the probability rate means? 

Probability of wager cashing

I feel like these UNDER wagers are going to get tested pretty hard today.

Heads up guys, I will not be here next weekend, starting on Friday. Find another solid capper to tail during the weekend. I'm going camping with the fam.

Ya 2 look like they are toast, still hope in the hawks game

Tonight's Recap (until the last game of the night)

ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating) 

ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating) 

NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)

SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating)

SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating)

MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating)

MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating)

Tonight's Recap (until the last game of the night)

ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating) 

ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating) 

NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating)

SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating) 

SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating) 

MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating)

MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating)

Daaamn!joined at wrong day! My bad luck follows me everywhere!:D

DEN -6

WAS +12

WAS/LAC UNDER 235.5

taking a beating tonight..., but if numbers mean anything, I'm doubling up my wagers for these last games

Tonight's Recap

ATL -7.5 -- Correlation 91.55% (63.5% probability rating) 

ATL/CLE UNDER 228 -- Correlation 81.23% (81.25% probability rating) 

NYK +4.5 -- Correlation 87.57% (60.4% probability rating) 

SAC +5.5 -- Correlation 95.34% (76.19% probability rating) 

SAC/BKN UNDER 241 -- Correlation 84.14% (85.7% probability rating) 

MIN +10 -- Correlation 90.36% (62.5% probability rating) 

MIN/MIL UNDER 231.5 -- Correlation 71.97% (64.7% probability rating) 

DEN -6 -- Correlation 88.24% (61.1% probability rating)

WAS +12 -- Correlation 89.14% (62.5% probability rating)

WAS/LAC UNDER 235.5 -- Correlation 74.64% (68.4% probability rating)

Damn that’s a rough evening

get em back tomorrow 

too many games bro

Although this can happen... it shouldn't happen, at least not like this. I'm going to perform some testing and get back when I'm more prepared. I'll keep you guys posted.

Ok... this is a little bit of insight into what I was doing and what I plan to do differently.

My study was based on how moneyline odds moved throughout the day. I capture the odds movement and create a intraday history, kind of like a stock. (In my previous life, I was an investment strategist / portfolio manager based on technical correlations between stocks and commodities)

With this data, I incorporate the result of each game.

For each day's event, I take the odds movement, compare it to all of the previous lines, and calculate a correlation coefficient. The results of the top 10 highest correlating past lines are used in calculating a probability metric.

Now, the problem with this method is that Moneyline movement is very different from ATS movement. I always thought that ATS line movement didn't have enough data. However, as I looked into this further, I noticed something very interesting. Odds multiplied by points can be used instead of just points, or just odds. So, this is what I am using now.

Last night was a runaway failure, but with failure, opportunities are presented. Instead of quitting, I'm going to work harder and get this shit right. I am running simulations right now to capture the best threshold correlation percentage, but once that's completed... we'll try this shit again. I promise, it'll be much much better.

@Froggy80

 Bol bro - but I feel like you have an excuse or a new insight after every bad beat. I personally don't follow your picks but there are people who tail your picks with real money. Hope you figure it out n yes I know you're not forcing anybody to tail your picks but maybe comeback to when you have better prep. Bol hope you smash it soon!! 

Yeah lost a ton yesterday,looked so good previous days that i followed yesterday for all picks!I gues the best option is to bet on results what u think will happen!I would never go for 1-7 if I would bet on myself ,but its just all my fault ..didn blame any 1 on that

Juice on that many games will kill you

Testing to see if my signature is working

The Covers Test Tube 

I love it!!

This looks promising: 12% of matches wagered -- 74.54% win

I think this is the threshold I will be aiming for.