I would say take the ML tonight and if necessary spread in Game 7.***
***At +2.5 you are not getting a whole lot of cushion and the +120 would soften the hedge amount here. None of these games have been close come Final Score,with the closest being 11.
***I say spread in Game 7 with the thinking that perhaps it will be somewhat lower than Games 1, 2 and 5. Those came in at around -5.5/6.5 whereas in Game 7 I could see it at 5 possibly 4.5 with the shift in momentum / public eye.
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I would say take the ML tonight and if necessary spread in Game 7.***
***At +2.5 you are not getting a whole lot of cushion and the +120 would soften the hedge amount here. None of these games have been close come Final Score,with the closest being 11.
***I say spread in Game 7 with the thinking that perhaps it will be somewhat lower than Games 1, 2 and 5. Those came in at around -5.5/6.5 whereas in Game 7 I could see it at 5 possibly 4.5 with the shift in momentum / public eye.
I don't normally do this, I usually just ride it out, but I am convinced GS wins either tonight or Sunday.
I have $1500 on Cavs at +400 for the Championship.
I have already counted that at a loss and I am up comfortably with that. But, I am thinking of hedging and would like some opinions.
Should I take GS +2 tonight (or ML) and then double up on GS in game 7 if they lose tonight?
Keep in mind I am thinking I would have to take ML in game 7 so I don't get caught up in GS winning but not covering the 6-7
I don't want to buy out, I am OK with losing the $1500.00 I am NOT OK with not cashing in at least 3500-4000k if the Cavs win.
Thought?
Opinions?
Suggestions?
Insults? (it's Covers...there will be a smart @ss somewhere).
Considering +400 is basically the price that is currently available, you don't have any equity in your wager yet... May I ask why you are even considering hedging?
If you want to buy out of some of the bet (not a smart move IMO), then you should just lay back the -500 on GS for X amount... Otherwise you could be chasing very negative value if there is a game 7.
Based on your stance that you're ok OK with losing the 1500 but want to make at least 3500 if the Cavs win then the only play you have is to sit tight and not hedge.
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Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:
So here I am thinking about hedging.
I don't normally do this, I usually just ride it out, but I am convinced GS wins either tonight or Sunday.
I have $1500 on Cavs at +400 for the Championship.
I have already counted that at a loss and I am up comfortably with that. But, I am thinking of hedging and would like some opinions.
Should I take GS +2 tonight (or ML) and then double up on GS in game 7 if they lose tonight?
Keep in mind I am thinking I would have to take ML in game 7 so I don't get caught up in GS winning but not covering the 6-7
I don't want to buy out, I am OK with losing the $1500.00 I am NOT OK with not cashing in at least 3500-4000k if the Cavs win.
Thought?
Opinions?
Suggestions?
Insults? (it's Covers...there will be a smart @ss somewhere).
Considering +400 is basically the price that is currently available, you don't have any equity in your wager yet... May I ask why you are even considering hedging?
If you want to buy out of some of the bet (not a smart move IMO), then you should just lay back the -500 on GS for X amount... Otherwise you could be chasing very negative value if there is a game 7.
Based on your stance that you're ok OK with losing the 1500 but want to make at least 3500 if the Cavs win then the only play you have is to sit tight and not hedge.
I didn't read the responses but here is what I would do if I was in your situation-
If you want to win both bets, you can take GS ATS on Thursday
Or if you want to make more take GS ML
If you lose that, now you have game 7 which who knows what the juice will be then, I have a theory that GS might even be 10 point underdogs at home game 7!
Yes I was called "The dumbest person on this site" for even thinking such a thing. But witout curry, green and bogut and considering GS lost by 15 last game at home WITH curry, I think a 10 pt spread is not out of the question here
Anyway my advice would be to take GS ATS game 7, I would never hedge on a -300 line, just let it ride in that case
Or take ATS and take a risk, if GS wins they SHOULD cover easily, based on what we've seen in these playoffs and in this series
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I didn't read the responses but here is what I would do if I was in your situation-
If you want to win both bets, you can take GS ATS on Thursday
Or if you want to make more take GS ML
If you lose that, now you have game 7 which who knows what the juice will be then, I have a theory that GS might even be 10 point underdogs at home game 7!
Yes I was called "The dumbest person on this site" for even thinking such a thing. But witout curry, green and bogut and considering GS lost by 15 last game at home WITH curry, I think a 10 pt spread is not out of the question here
Anyway my advice would be to take GS ATS game 7, I would never hedge on a -300 line, just let it ride in that case
Or take ATS and take a risk, if GS wins they SHOULD cover easily, based on what we've seen in these playoffs and in this series
Why are you OK with losing 1500 but not ok with winning 3500? Sorry I am confused here. Maybe not using my brain. Brain feels numb at the moment anyway
But I did put my throughts in the above post
Just curious why you would bet cavs to win it all and then want to hedge? What makes you all of a sudden (or what made you change your mind) think cavs are going to lose?
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Why are you OK with losing 1500 but not ok with winning 3500? Sorry I am confused here. Maybe not using my brain. Brain feels numb at the moment anyway
But I did put my throughts in the above post
Just curious why you would bet cavs to win it all and then want to hedge? What makes you all of a sudden (or what made you change your mind) think cavs are going to lose?
I didn't read the responses but here is what I would do if I was in your situation-
If you want to win both bets, you can take GS ATS on Thursday
Or if you want to make more take GS ML
If you lose that, now you have game 7 which who knows what the juice will be then, I have a theory that GS might even be 10 point underdogs at home game 7!
Yes I was called "The dumbest person on this site" for even thinking such a thing. But witout curry, green and bogut and considering GS lost by 15 last game at home WITH curry, I think a 10 pt spread is not out of the question here
Anyway my advice would be to take GS ATS game 7, I would never hedge on a -300 line, just let it ride in that case
Or take ATS and take a risk, if GS wins they SHOULD cover easily, based on what we've seen in these playoffs and in this series
Dude you lost me. GS underdogs at home?
Line for 7 will be GS 5.5-6 minimum.
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Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
I didn't read the responses but here is what I would do if I was in your situation-
If you want to win both bets, you can take GS ATS on Thursday
Or if you want to make more take GS ML
If you lose that, now you have game 7 which who knows what the juice will be then, I have a theory that GS might even be 10 point underdogs at home game 7!
Yes I was called "The dumbest person on this site" for even thinking such a thing. But witout curry, green and bogut and considering GS lost by 15 last game at home WITH curry, I think a 10 pt spread is not out of the question here
Anyway my advice would be to take GS ATS game 7, I would never hedge on a -300 line, just let it ride in that case
Or take ATS and take a risk, if GS wins they SHOULD cover easily, based on what we've seen in these playoffs and in this series
I didn't read the responses but here is what I would do if I was in your situation-
If you want to win both bets, you can take GS ATS on Thursday
Or if you want to make more take GS ML
If you lose that, now you have game 7 which who knows what the juice will be then, I have a theory that GS might even be 10 point underdogs at home game 7!
Yes I was called "The dumbest person on this site" for even thinking such a thing. But witout curry, green and bogut and considering GS lost by 15 last game at home WITH curry, I think a 10 pt spread is not out of the question here
Anyway my advice would be to take GS ATS game 7, I would never hedge on a -300 line, just let it ride in that case
Or take ATS and take a risk, if GS wins they SHOULD cover easily, based on what we've seen in these playoffs and in this series
Warriors would never be that at home even with Curry, Bogut, and another player. Maybe if you were talking the Warriors 15 years ago lmao. Few of our bench players would be starters on more than half the teams in the league.
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Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
I didn't read the responses but here is what I would do if I was in your situation-
If you want to win both bets, you can take GS ATS on Thursday
Or if you want to make more take GS ML
If you lose that, now you have game 7 which who knows what the juice will be then, I have a theory that GS might even be 10 point underdogs at home game 7!
Yes I was called "The dumbest person on this site" for even thinking such a thing. But witout curry, green and bogut and considering GS lost by 15 last game at home WITH curry, I think a 10 pt spread is not out of the question here
Anyway my advice would be to take GS ATS game 7, I would never hedge on a -300 line, just let it ride in that case
Or take ATS and take a risk, if GS wins they SHOULD cover easily, based on what we've seen in these playoffs and in this series
Warriors would never be that at home even with Curry, Bogut, and another player. Maybe if you were talking the Warriors 15 years ago lmao. Few of our bench players would be starters on more than half the teams in the league.
Oh sorry Tony I thought you would of opened my crazy script theory thread? Please take the opportunity to do that now. It's a funny theory, I think you'll like it!
If it pans out we will see GS as 7 to 10 pt underdogs at home and will be the first time in a long time we've seen that in GS
I explained in there my theory. It came to me so I wont be surprised if it happens. Well actually I will. That's a LITTLE overboard, predicting 3 injuries in one game..
Well 2 technically, but we had 2 last game. I just think they want cavs this year and they will do all they can to make sure that happens. Curry would be the most obvious one though if they had him injured. So maybe it will be green. Someone else here predicted cavs would bait green into committing a flagrent foul
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Oh sorry Tony I thought you would of opened my crazy script theory thread? Please take the opportunity to do that now. It's a funny theory, I think you'll like it!
If it pans out we will see GS as 7 to 10 pt underdogs at home and will be the first time in a long time we've seen that in GS
I explained in there my theory. It came to me so I wont be surprised if it happens. Well actually I will. That's a LITTLE overboard, predicting 3 injuries in one game..
Well 2 technically, but we had 2 last game. I just think they want cavs this year and they will do all they can to make sure that happens. Curry would be the most obvious one though if they had him injured. So maybe it will be green. Someone else here predicted cavs would bait green into committing a flagrent foul
You can monitor Live Betting odds for game 6. You can probably get GS ML Live for like +200 or more at some point if Cavs are up by 8+. Just bet enough to cover the 1500 in case GS wins game 6... then you'd still be able to cash in 3500+ if cavs win game 7.
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You can monitor Live Betting odds for game 6. You can probably get GS ML Live for like +200 or more at some point if Cavs are up by 8+. Just bet enough to cover the 1500 in case GS wins game 6... then you'd still be able to cash in 3500+ if cavs win game 7.
Warriors would never be that at home even with Curry, Bogut, and another player. Maybe if you were talking the Warriors 15 years ago lmao. Few of our bench players would be starters on more than half the teams in the league.
I beg to differ. If curry, Green andbogut are out of game 7 we will see GS getting 7 to 10 points in game 7
It make sense as Cleveland won by 15 and they had curry. So, no way it will be less than 7. Books aren't stupid. They know this would still attract GS action while at the same time preventing anyone from getting easy money on Cleveland to win the series
Honestly, I doubt my theory comes true and I will tell you why-
For this very reason then whoever bets cavs series would have an easy lock, and even at -10 ...or -500 on the ML the whales could still profit big time, and vegas would have to hand out tons of money
But could they even the action on GS, even with them losing by 15 and then 40? (Remember my theory was they'd lose game 6 by 40 if they lose those 3)
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Quote Originally Posted by DWeezySF:
Warriors would never be that at home even with Curry, Bogut, and another player. Maybe if you were talking the Warriors 15 years ago lmao. Few of our bench players would be starters on more than half the teams in the league.
I beg to differ. If curry, Green andbogut are out of game 7 we will see GS getting 7 to 10 points in game 7
It make sense as Cleveland won by 15 and they had curry. So, no way it will be less than 7. Books aren't stupid. They know this would still attract GS action while at the same time preventing anyone from getting easy money on Cleveland to win the series
Honestly, I doubt my theory comes true and I will tell you why-
For this very reason then whoever bets cavs series would have an easy lock, and even at -10 ...or -500 on the ML the whales could still profit big time, and vegas would have to hand out tons of money
But could they even the action on GS, even with them losing by 15 and then 40? (Remember my theory was they'd lose game 6 by 40 if they lose those 3)
If I were you tony, I would wait until game 7. Do you risk the idea of getting nothing if dubs win, yes but I feel to hedge I'd do it in game 7. You will get a very good idea of where the money is, what the line is, what the plot looks like and what the media is saying. My point here is that you can fade a lot of it. Whether you want to denounce my idea of the script or not, that is fine. What I will say is that if there is a game 7, Vegas will not roll over. No way. More specifically, If it gets to a game 7, I'd wait until half time to hedge. With this, you will get a great idea of the game flow, maybe the injuries, foul trouble and again, you can fade the media. I know this is not a typical approach but I'd rather hedge something over the span of 24 minutes rather than 48 minutes where so much can unfold in game 7. As for money you can pick a total or a spread and get great value. You can also live bet if you want. With any of these you can find almost even money. If you have 6000 in potential winnings on Cavs then you can bet 3k on dubs. Either way you are coming out ahead at least 1500 up if you win the dubs bet. If you lose the dubs bet and Cavs win, you take home 3k. If you've done well enough in the playoffs to where you can sit the game 6 and wait on the hedge, that is what I would do tony. I'd be patient. Do what you want with this but thought I'd chime in
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If I were you tony, I would wait until game 7. Do you risk the idea of getting nothing if dubs win, yes but I feel to hedge I'd do it in game 7. You will get a very good idea of where the money is, what the line is, what the plot looks like and what the media is saying. My point here is that you can fade a lot of it. Whether you want to denounce my idea of the script or not, that is fine. What I will say is that if there is a game 7, Vegas will not roll over. No way. More specifically, If it gets to a game 7, I'd wait until half time to hedge. With this, you will get a great idea of the game flow, maybe the injuries, foul trouble and again, you can fade the media. I know this is not a typical approach but I'd rather hedge something over the span of 24 minutes rather than 48 minutes where so much can unfold in game 7. As for money you can pick a total or a spread and get great value. You can also live bet if you want. With any of these you can find almost even money. If you have 6000 in potential winnings on Cavs then you can bet 3k on dubs. Either way you are coming out ahead at least 1500 up if you win the dubs bet. If you lose the dubs bet and Cavs win, you take home 3k. If you've done well enough in the playoffs to where you can sit the game 6 and wait on the hedge, that is what I would do tony. I'd be patient. Do what you want with this but thought I'd chime in
if you wagered $1500 with +400odds your winnings would be $6,000
you have value in your wager right now, better value than you could get today. (game 6) if Cavs win game 6 then you would have even better value for game 7
now hedging a bet means you are willing to risk your value for a lesser value. I am only talking about this specific wager of yours in this situation.
Best to wait until last game to hedge, if you are going to give up value.
let's say in game 7 the ML on GS is......-175 or -220, or -330
ML at -175 then this is your equation
Hedge Wager Amount: 4772.73 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2727.27 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 1227.27 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 1227.27
ML at -220 this is your equation....
Hedge Wager Amount: 5156.25 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2343.75 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 843.75 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 843.75
ML at -330 this is your equation....
Hedge Wager Amount: 5755.81 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 1744.18 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 244.19 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 244.18
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To Hedge or not to Hedge that is the question
if you wagered $1500 with +400odds your winnings would be $6,000
you have value in your wager right now, better value than you could get today. (game 6) if Cavs win game 6 then you would have even better value for game 7
now hedging a bet means you are willing to risk your value for a lesser value. I am only talking about this specific wager of yours in this situation.
Best to wait until last game to hedge, if you are going to give up value.
let's say in game 7 the ML on GS is......-175 or -220, or -330
ML at -175 then this is your equation
Hedge Wager Amount: 4772.73 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2727.27 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 1227.27 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 1227.27
ML at -220 this is your equation....
Hedge Wager Amount: 5156.25 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2343.75 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 843.75 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 843.75
ML at -330 this is your equation....
Hedge Wager Amount: 5755.81 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 1744.18 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 244.19 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 244.18
Again... There isn't any equity in the Cavs+400 bet. This is the price that is currently available. So... Based on the projected money lines (game 6,7) you cannot "hedge" to guarantee a profit right now. You can only lay off some of your bet... With a negative value bet on GS at around -500 or so. Wouldn't take that road myself... I'd let it play out. At least you could argue you have slight value in the +400
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Again... There isn't any equity in the Cavs+400 bet. This is the price that is currently available. So... Based on the projected money lines (game 6,7) you cannot "hedge" to guarantee a profit right now. You can only lay off some of your bet... With a negative value bet on GS at around -500 or so. Wouldn't take that road myself... I'd let it play out. At least you could argue you have slight value in the +400
It seems like your best option is to ride out the series bet, and just wager on the Warriors in either game 6 or game 7 (or both), if you like them in those spots... based on each situation individually.
I understand you want to hedge, but it doesn't seem there is any value for you to do that...
Maybe it seems confusing, but I would forget about that wager, and if you are so sure the Warriors are going to win, then just approach these games as if you had no futures bets, and bet the W's however you would normally bet them...
The Dude imbibes
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It seems like your best option is to ride out the series bet, and just wager on the Warriors in either game 6 or game 7 (or both), if you like them in those spots... based on each situation individually.
I understand you want to hedge, but it doesn't seem there is any value for you to do that...
Maybe it seems confusing, but I would forget about that wager, and if you are so sure the Warriors are going to win, then just approach these games as if you had no futures bets, and bet the W's however you would normally bet them...
If you must hedge, I think it's better to wait until game 7... at least at that point you will have positive value...
I am saying this purely from a value standpoint, but in my mind I think the Warriors will win the series on Thursday. So take it with a grain of salt...
The Dude imbibes
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If you must hedge, I think it's better to wait until game 7... at least at that point you will have positive value...
I am saying this purely from a value standpoint, but in my mind I think the Warriors will win the series on Thursday. So take it with a grain of salt...
The onemail thing that was mentioned a few times is wait till game 7, but I'm not confident there will be one.
Reading most of the responses it seems general consensus is play or sit out game 6 without taking the futures into consideration then hedge if there is a 7.
Again, appreciate all your help, especially those who really took some time and thought she really broken it down.
GL guys!
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Thanks everybody. Really appreciate it.
I will think about everything here.
The onemail thing that was mentioned a few times is wait till game 7, but I'm not confident there will be one.
Reading most of the responses it seems general consensus is play or sit out game 6 without taking the futures into consideration then hedge if there is a 7.
Again, appreciate all your help, especially those who really took some time and thought she really broken it down.
But seriously dude you never get thoughts that come to you out of the blue? I haven't done any hallucinogens in years to be honest with you.
completely sober out of my mind and yes the thought just came to me. So, it could be BS or it could be psychic. More often than not, thoughts are not psychic though. If they were, that would be awesome, probably would only need to make 1 bet in my entire lifetime!
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But seriously dude you never get thoughts that come to you out of the blue? I haven't done any hallucinogens in years to be honest with you.
completely sober out of my mind and yes the thought just came to me. So, it could be BS or it could be psychic. More often than not, thoughts are not psychic though. If they were, that would be awesome, probably would only need to make 1 bet in my entire lifetime!
I beg to differ. If curry, Green andbogut are out of game 7 we will see GS getting 7 to 10 points in game 7
It make sense as Cleveland won by 15 and they had curry. So, no way it will be less than 7. Books aren't stupid. They know this would still attract GS action while at the same time preventing anyone from getting easy money on Cleveland to win the series
Honestly, I doubt my theory comes true and I will tell you why-
For this very reason then whoever bets cavs series would have an easy lock, and even at -10 ...or -500 on the ML the whales could still profit big time, and vegas would have to hand out tons of money
But could they even the action on GS, even with them losing by 15 and then 40? (Remember my theory was they'd lose game 6 by 40 if they lose those 3)
i didn't bother reading. good day
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Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
I beg to differ. If curry, Green andbogut are out of game 7 we will see GS getting 7 to 10 points in game 7
It make sense as Cleveland won by 15 and they had curry. So, no way it will be less than 7. Books aren't stupid. They know this would still attract GS action while at the same time preventing anyone from getting easy money on Cleveland to win the series
Honestly, I doubt my theory comes true and I will tell you why-
For this very reason then whoever bets cavs series would have an easy lock, and even at -10 ...or -500 on the ML the whales could still profit big time, and vegas would have to hand out tons of money
But could they even the action on GS, even with them losing by 15 and then 40? (Remember my theory was they'd lose game 6 by 40 if they lose those 3)
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