All Forums | NBA Betting

Linesmakers are BEGGING us to take the underdog tomorrow

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 6927
Posts: 63
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 14
Posted: #26
I m not getting the point. I m kind of new in betting world so please care to explain.

If Indy is down 3-1 and lost by 4, 6, and 5 pts in the 3 games, my first though is that +10 points should cover fairly easy. In 3 games lost they never gave more than 6 points, so why shouldn't 10 be good in this situation?

Btw, I m not doubting of you, just trying to understand a bit more, as I have been folloowing you in and I like the way you see and cap.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 14
Posted: #27
I m not getting the point. I m kind of new in betting world so please care to explain.

If Indy is down 3-1 and lost by 4, 6, and 5 pts in the 3 games, my first though is that +10 points should cover fairly easy. In 3 games lost they never gave more than 6 points, so why shouldn't 10 be good in this situation?

Btw, I m not doubting of you, just trying to understand a bit more, as I have been folloowing you in and I like the way you see and cap.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 16131
Posted: #28
The Lakers are not losing that series
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 2196
Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:

hawks. up 3-1. i can't imagine a more perfect spot for them to take a game off. They're like the chum-lee of the NBA.

pacers. just a feeling but capitulation is looming. If they have a bad first half, it will be garbage time-o-rama.

Hornets. there's no angle here to support a laker bet. The show might actually lose the series.

of the 3, i would take the bulls, being easily the strongest favorite in the package. I believe they are tired of being outplayed by the pacers in the first half & they come out, bury them, & party.

GL

Wow, this is the playoffs, my man!

Do you not understand that athletes do not take the day off during the playoffs when they are trying to win what is a childhood dream? Have you ever been an athlete?? Do you understand this is the playoffs? Do you even know what year we are in??

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 4345
Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Kakizito:

I m not getting the point. I m kind of new in betting world so please care to explain.

If Indy is down 3-1 and lost by 4, 6, and 5 pts in the 3 games, my first though is that +10 points should cover fairly easy. In 3 games lost they never gave more than 6 points, so why shouldn't 10 be good in this situation?

Btw, I m not doubting of you, just trying to understand a bit more, as I have been folloowing you in and I like the way you see and cap.

Basically, the people setting the lines do NOT make mistakes like this, especially in the playoffs.  If a line is, "too good to be true", it likely is.  
Using the indy/chi example;  All stats and reasoning point to indy....back against the wall, their losing margin has never been as high as the spread now, derrick rose a little banged up, etc.
How can they honestly open this line at 11, (yes, it opened at 11, already moved to 9.5).  It should be -6, -7 at the most.

Fishy.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 2425
Posted: #31

The NBA system works since the playoff starts 4/16

Take the Favors/Overs will give u ONLY a TROPHY  at the end of NBA 2011, but BURN more

Take the Dogs/Unders will make MORE $$$$$$$$ at the end of NBA 2011

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 2402
Posted: #32
How are the lines fishy?  wasn't the spread of the Chicago-Indy games in chicago (games 1 and 2)  like Chicago -10 or -11??   To me, it's the same line.  I think you are over-thinking too much.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 14
Posted: #33
Hmm think now I get it. So when you say maybe 2 of 3 favs will cover it, you are saying they will cover not that -11 line, but tomorows line, as you are expecting majority to pick the underdog and the line will move even far from the original opening line. Correct?

Thx for taking time to explain.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 24613
Posted: #34
Hey CT, I honestly think the line is set so high for the Money Line. If Bulls were say a 4-6 point fave, I wouldn't think twice betting on the ML instead. Expect the Grizzlies to be a 7+ point dog in San Antonio in Game 5. I think it follows the same reasoning.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 2939
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by BrassStones:

Wow, this is the playoffs, my man!

Do you not understand that athletes do not take the day off during the playoffs when they are trying to win what is a childhood dream? Have you ever been an athlete?? Do you understand this is the playoffs? Do you even know what year we are in??

LOL i love your style. You should put all your money on the hawks my man & watch what happens when an "average quality" team has to play on the road vs a team in a must-win game. Key words here are "average quality" please keep up with me. That means they play good when they have to, play bad when they don't. Thats why they're called "average". hope you get the point.

my man.

 

 

 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 2425
Posted: #36
Warning: if u believe in the ML%, ATS%, and Total% system, it will fu$k your brain confusion. It is a trap. Play ur own feeling.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 10292
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:

hawks. up 3-1. i can't imagine a more perfect spot for them to take a game off. They're like the chum-lee of the NBA.

pacers. just a feeling but capitulation is looming. If they have a bad first half, it will be garbage time-o-rama.

Hornets. there's no angle here to support a laker bet. The show might actually lose the series.

of the 3, i would take the bulls, being easily the strongest favorite in the package. I believe they are tired of being outplayed by the pacers in the first half & they come out, bury them, & party.

GL

yessir

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 4635
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

The Lakers are not losing that series

Anything else for us JWheels?


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 433
Posted: #39
chicago cant be -5 or 6. thats very low if you believe a team wins the game SU... plus bulls have lost 5 games at home. a person who thinks a team wins SU will not mind giving 5 or 6

that is the right line for indiana

same theory for atla+7.5 applies
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 1581
Posted: #40
how can you take the bulls? drose was icing his ankle in a mop bucket!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 1581
Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by bigrick2234:

how can you take the bulls? drose was icing his ankle in a mop bucket!


a fucl<ing MOP BUCKET
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 1581
Posted: #42
the water was probally dirty.

his foot will need to be amputated
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 6156
Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by lakers34kb:

Lakers are going to win by 20.. wait and see

fuck man they better make it out the first round 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 9033
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by canadiantruth:

"Don't you mean 2 of 3 underdogs cover their spreads? "

No, i mean favs will cover.

They are asking, begging, pleading that we take the underdogs.  They have set lines that are 1-3 points inflated.   

This is why the line movement will be so interesting.
I can tell you right now, the public is going to be ALL OVER THOSE DOGS.    Watch the lines.   If 75% of the public is on each of these respective underdogs and the line is hardly moving, it means big money is on the favs, effectively negating the public money.

This is a game played by humans and anything can happen, but with experience you can see angles, linesmakers errors, etc and find value.
To be profitable long term, these are essential things to learn....
unless you're really lucky.




if 75% is betting 1 side the line will be moving.....dont look to hard into these over night lines, they will all be different tomorrow towards game time.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 1986
Posted: #45
I have respect for you as a capper man but I think you may be over thinking these lines. Most of them are only inflated because of their name and them all going back home which is normal. I also agree with CMM that the lines could be where they're at so that the favs are not remotely profitable as an ML bet.

Also,  I really cant stand the whole "square play" remarks. Screw  the "sharp" and "square" bs.. I just bet where ever I see more value, I don't care what % of the public is on it.

 You very well could be right but Ill be playing the dogs. The dogs have won me a lot of money this playoff season and I really dont like laying big chalk against these specific dogs tomorrow. They have each proven that they can hang and play competitively with the Favs/Big name. Either way, Gl man and take care
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 1780
Posted: #46
bet on all away teams same amount= win 2 of 3. :)
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 4345
Posted: #47
Hey everyone,
Glad this thread got so much response.  I use covers to try to improve my capping skills and you all definitely gave me some food for thought. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 4345
Posted: #48
kakizito,
Yes, I am saying, wait untill the lines finish moving and you can find some great value.  

CMM,
You may be onto something, it is rare for me to look at lines this early, perhaps this the norm and I just normally dont' see it?

Again guys, thanks for the input and good luck today!
CT
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 23180
Posted: #49
BOL TRUTH ON YOUR FINAL PLAYS!
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 1202
Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by BrassStones:

Wow, this is the playoffs, my man!

Do you not understand that athletes do not take the day off during the playoffs when they are trying to win what is a childhood dream? Have you ever been an athlete?? Do you understand this is the playoffs? Do you even know what year we are in??

yes i guess they play hard every minute,like the bulls did last game,right
All Forums | NBA Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.