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NBA 2008-09, Week 7 thread...

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Posted: #1
Random thoughts:

Since the berth of the Internet, the betting industry has really changed drastically in favor of the bettor...Although Vegas, to their credit, has made adjustments to many bettors being educated by sharing information on gambling forums like this one...

So bettors also need to make adjustments and go after lines where they still have a big advantage...Lines that Vegas really cannot do much about in some spots, and the best lines to attack are the 2H lines...

I have been "practicing" making 2nd half bets all season (and have made plenty of 2H bets over the years), but have only bet 3 (2 posted) and am 2-0 this season...The first 3 1/2 weeks, I was terrible with the 2H "practice" bets, losing almost all of the ones I considered making real bets on...But I have been scorching hot the last 2 weeks or so, winning almost all of them...I should be "actually" betting more of these...

What I look for with 2nd half bets

I like betting 2H Overs (after a low-scoring 1H) and 2H Favorites (the bigger the game FAV, the better, at Home, when they are down a bunch at the half)...

Let's start with the Overs...

My last 2H bet on Sunday is an example of the "perfect storm" or should I say, perfect situation to bet a 2H Over...

Criteria I look for:

1) Total number of points scored must be low...By low, I mean, did we have a game in the 60s or low 70s at the half?...

2) Did both teams shoot poorly in the 1H?...By poorly, I mean one team MUST be below 35% (hopefully around 30%) and the other team should be less than 40% (closer to 35% would be nice)...

If 1 & 2 equals true on both counts then look at the 2H line...

3) Use this formula: Take (the original Vegas game total line) minus (the Vegas 2H total line) minus (the total number of points scored in the 1st half) and if this number is 30 or more, then we may have a play...

4) You look at the pace of the game...Add up the total number of shots taken and the total number of free-throws taken...80 shots taken and 20 FTs taken, give or take, is a "fast" pace...

Now I haven't sat down and written out specific criteria for what is a "fast" pace and what is not for the 1H, but I kind of "know it when I see it" based on experience and looking at tons of boxscores...Maybe I should write down specific criteria...

If all 4 of the above criteria are met, then this is automatic bet on the 2H Over...

You can bet the 2H Over if all 4 criteria are not met, but you better have 3 of the 4 criteria met to be on the safe side, and the pace of the 1H is the most important criteria that MUST be met...

I have seen plenty of games where 1 through 3 are met, but not #4, and the 2H total stays Under...#4 is the clincher in the deal...But if you got #4 met with ease, then you can skimp a little bit on the other 3 criteria and have them off by a little and still make a bet on the Over...

So there is the criteria, now let's examine the criteria in action, by looking at why I bet the Milwaukee/L.A. Lakers game Over 103.5, 2H, this past Sunday...

Game total: 211
Lakers 43-31 at the half
1H shooting: Milw 14-45, 31.1%, LAL 15-41, 36.6%
Total 1H shots: 86
Total 1H Free-throws taken: 21
Total points: 74
2H total line: 103.5

Criteria 1: 74
Criteria 2: 31% & 37%
Criteria 3: 211 - 103.5 - 74 = 33.5
Criteria 4: 86 shots & 21 FTs taken

All criteria met...Take the Over 103.5...

2H results:

MILW 21-47, 44.7%
also 16-20 from the FT line

LAL 19-29, 65.5%
also 22-26 from the FT line

2H shooting combined, 40-76, 52.6%

123 points scored...

Why do I use this criteria for a 2H Over?...

2 main reasons...

1) It is very rare for 2 teams to finish an NBA game at the percentages these 2 teams had at the half (31% and 37%)...Very, very rare, and I have 17+ NBA seasons worth of games (boxscores) to prove it...So it is very reasonable to assume, based on a sample of over 20,000 games, that when NBA teams shoot at very low percentages in the 1st half (like the MILW/LAL game cited above) then those percentages are going up in the 2H...It's called "returning to the mean"...This is NBA basketball, it's just the nature of the game for this to happen with professional athletes...

2) Not many NBA games that stay 30 points under the Vegas total...Does it ever happen?...Yes, of course it does, several times a season (during the course of over 1000 games per season)...But when an NBA game does stay 30 or more points below the Vegas line, the PACE of the game is way, way slower than the pace was for this MILW/LAL game in the 1H...
 
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Posted: #2
Now to taking 2H Favorites...

I don't have set criteria for taking the FAVs in the 2H (although maybe I should draw up some "set" criteria like I did for the 2H Overs)...

But there are a few more favorable situations to consider with 2H FAVs than there is with 2H Overs...

What I look for is a big Home FAV (preferably a double-digit favorite) to be down big at the half (preferably by double digits)...

The 2H line means a LOT...

Let's look at a posted 2H bet that I won back on Day 19:

November 15 -- Utah at Cleveland

CLE 10.5 FAVs for the game, down 7 at the half...
The 2H line was CLE -9.5...

Let's look at the 1H numbers:

Utah 20-38 (52.6%) from the field...Cleveland 16-40 (40%) from the field...

What these numbers mean to me:

1) CLE only needs to win the game by 3 to cover the 2H spread (CLE originally 10.5 FAVs for the game)...So I just picked up 8 points on the original Vegas number, going from 10.5 FAVs to 2.5 FAVs for the game line...

2) Utah shot almost 13% better than CLE in the 1H, so I expect CLE to reverse that to the mean and get those numbers closer to even for the game...

Play on Cleveland -9.5, 2H line...

2H results:

Utah shot 13-34 (38.2%) in the 2H, putting Utah at 45.8% for the game
CLE shot 20-39 (51.3%) in the 2H, putting CLE at 45.6% for the game

CLE outscored Utah 59-40 in the 2H to win the game 105-93, easily covering the 2H line and even covering the game line...

So a good situation to bet big Home FAVs in the 2H is:

1) Bet a good team, preferably a top-flyte team
2) Bet on a double-digit Home FAV, preferably
3) When the FAV is being outshot by at least 10% from the field at the half (preferably more than 15% and closer to 20%)
4) Best time to bet is when the 2H line puts the FAV as a small favorite for the "new" game line at the start of the 2H (3-point FAVs or less on the "new" game line at the start of the 2H)

Also, if you have a medium-range Home FAV (6 to 9 points) and they are down BIG at the half, and the 2H line puts them in a spot where they are at least 7-point DOGs for the "new" game line at the half, then they are also a solid 2H play if they are being out-shot badly (percentage-wise) at the half...

Example:

GS at LAL last 3/23/08

Lakers 7-point FAVs at Home on the game line and down 23 at the half...
LAL -8 on the 2H line...

1H numbers:
GS shot 28-51 (54.9%) at the half
LAL shot 19-48 (39.6%) at the half

So we have:

1) 15% difference in FG% in favor of GS (meets criteria)
2) Lakers are +7 or greater on the "new game line" to start the 2H (meets criteria)...now +15 on the new game line starting the 2H (if they lose the game by 15, you push, if they lose by 14 or less or win, you win the 2H bet)...

Results:

LAL outscored GS 62-43 in the 2H to EASILY cover the 2H line (lost the game by 4)...
GS shot 10-38 (26.3%) for the 2H
LAL shot 20-47 (42.6%) for the 2H

Anyway, as far as 2H Unders and underdogs go, that'll have to wait for another day, but I don't play these 2 options much...
 
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Posted: #3

Look at Tuesday's action:

 

Det/Was -- Pistons have lost 3 of 4 and don't look good right now...DET Under 4 straight and 9 of 10...WAS had not covered 2 in a row all season until Week 6, where they Covered all 4 games in a 5-day span...Wiz had been 4-0-1 to the Under before going way Over their last game, a 4th game in 5 nights ("tired" legs = no defense)...

 

Tor/Cle -- Almost a "perfect storm" yet again...Cavs on a C8 and Toronto just missed coming in with a NC8, but barely covered last time out with a 1-point loss vs. PORT at Home as a small DOG...I have a NBA database that goes back to the 1991-92 season and there has never been a C8 vs. NC8 match-up...Never...However, just last season, we had a C8 vs. NC7 on 2/26/08 with PORT (NC7) at LAL (C8)...Lakers were 15.5 chalk and won by 13, so they didn't cover...

 

There are 7 examples that are similar to a C8 vs. a NC8...Here they are:

 

Team  -------------Date –Day--------------------Team----------  Line   

Houston ----C8 4/22/93 Th--- H FAV vs. Minnesota --NC6 -14 --W 2 --NC

Houston ----C8 12/6/99 Mon- H FAV vs. Vancouver -NC6 -7 ---W 3 --NC

LA Lakers--C8 2/26/08 Tue-- H FAV vs. Portland ----NC7 -15.5 W 13 NC

Grizzlies ---C6 11/29/06 Wed A DOG vs. LA Clippers NC7 6.5 --L 15 NC

Toronto ----C6 4/5/02 ---Fri --A FAV vs. Chicago -----NC7 -4.5 -W 2 -NC

Phoenix ----C6 12/7/91 -Sat --A FAV vs. Miami -------NC8 -3.5 -W 1 -NC

Indiana -----C6 4/10/05 –Sun- H FAV vs. New York --NC9 -7.5-- L 1 -NC

 

 

As you can see, the team on the long NC streak covered EVERY game...7-0 ATS...So you can see why I was rooting for the Raptors not to cover against PORT on Sunday as we would have had a NC8 vs. C8...

 

But, Toronto now becomes a chart-play for me (NC7 streak just ended, now the streak should reverse itself)...And CLE is going for a C9, which has only happened 39 times since the 1991-92 season...Obviously, strictly from a trendy point of view, I like the Raptors here, getting double-digits...

 

 
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Posted: #4

Utah/Min -- no line...Minny coming in with a NC7...Minny has beaten Utah 2 straight and 3 of 4 at Minny...Lean to the T'Wolves here...

 

Atl/Hou -- Rockets suddenly an Over team (5 straight Overs and 8 of 9) while ATL has become an Under team (3-0-2 to the Under last 5)...Home team has won 8 of 9 h2h, covering 7, but HOU won at ATL their last h2h meeting...HOU 3-2 to the Over in back-enders...

 

NY/Chi -- Knicks Under 4 straight and 5 of 6 now...CHI had been 4-0-1 to the Under in regulation until their last game against the Wiz that went way Over...This one smells like an Over to me, but we'll see...

 

SA/Dal -- no line...Revenge spot for the Spurs as they lost at Home by 17 to the Mavs in early NOV...SA looking like they are coming together with back-to-back impressive wins...Mavs have won 4 straight, but 3 of them at Home in more-or-less unimpressive fashion except for the win over the Suns...

 

Milw/Phoe -- Suns on a NC5 while the Bucks just keep covering almost every damn time out (15-6-1 ATS on the closing line)...9 of the last 10 Over h2h and Bucks have a revenge spot after losing to the Suns at Home a month ago...Suns also have gone Over 6 straight games...

 

Orl/Port -- Blazers first game Home after a road trip...Only ORL's 4th time having a back-ender, and they are 2-1 ATS so far...PORT 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...PORT had been 7-0-1 to the under before going Over their last game, so a bit of a chart-play to the Over here...ORL 2-1 to the Over on back-enders this season...ORL a revenge spot for a home loss a month ago to PORT...

 

LAL/Sac -- no line although it looks like Kevin Martin won't play (listed as doubtful)...This series Over 8 of last 9 h2h...This is a home-and-home for LAL, but SAC has to play PHOE in between playing the Lakers twice...Lakers had been Over 6 straight, now Under 2 straight, so still a chart-play to the Under for them...Lakers have won and covered 4 straight at Arco Arena...

 
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Posted: #5
I love this shit.
 
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Posted: #6
very nice #7. What is your card looking like?
 
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Posted: #7
I like your theory on the 2H totals. However can you explain why you you take the (initial vegas line - the 2H vegas line - the 1H total)? and why does it pass the criteria if its over 30? whats significant about the 30?

And any solid plays for tonight?

Cheers
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by rsm580:

I like your theory on the 2H totals. However can you explain why you you take the (initial vegas line - the 2H vegas line - the 1H total)? and why does it pass the criteria if its over 30? whats significant about the 30?

And any solid plays for tonight?

Cheers

It doesn't have to reach 30 for #3 to be a play if #4 is met for sure and #1 and #2 are close to being met...

I use 30 because it is rare for a NBA game to go Under the Vegas game total by 30 points or more...Does it happen?...Yes...But when it happens, it's because the pace of the game is SLOW (not many shots and free-throws attempted)...

Anyway, if you look at my thoughts on Tuesday's card, obviously I believe Toronto will be a strong play...Hard to go against Cleveland right now, but they have a lot going against them from a purely statistical trends analysis point of view...Does NOT guarantee anything, the Cavs may murder them...Line may go up, so wait and see if it does and then take the Raptors if you choose to...

 
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Posted: #9
Sounds goood. GL with your plays
 
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Posted: #10
Another "stat" to look at for the ORL/PORT game tonight is the one I heard from the Clippers color man last night during the telecast and that stat is that ORL has yet to beat a team with a winning record this year...16-5 and yet to beat a winning team?...Hard to believe...I just looked and I noticed that ORL did beat Dallas, BUT Dallas did have a losing record when they played ORL...
 
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Posted: #11
Are they going to break that trend tonight?????
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by GoBLUE74:

Are they going to break that trend tonight?????

 

Who, ORL?...Hard to say, but the points are hard to ignore as PORT has the infamous first home game after a road trip game...

Anyway, I need to place a bet now in case this line has topped out...

BET:

Level 1 -- Toronto Raptors +12, laying $275 to win $250 -- Do I dare put a tiny play on the moneyline too?...I guess I can't really with how Toronto has struggled at CLE historically and how well CLE has played all year and how terrible TOR has played recently...Looks like Toronto has NO CHANCE tonight and that is when I will jump just about every time on a 12-point DOG...Despite their recent horrible performance, Toonto has a talented squad...They should be playing the "David" role vs. Goliath tonight and have a "nothing to lose" mentality...For me, it's a big-time chart-play on Toronto and the Cavs are on a C8 and only 39 teams in the last 17+ seasons have reached a C9 or higher, so I'll play the odds here as I certainly have VALUE with this line, I don't care what anyone says, even if Cleveland beats them by 30 tonight, I'll take this spot every time...

 
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Posted: #13
Nice writeups Brewers.  Always make it a habit to read your thoughts before I make my plays.   

I know Minnesota being a NC7 makes it a chart play for you.  Minnesota also just fired their coach and McHale will be heading the helm tonight.  Does that make it a stronger play as 1st game at home with new coach is 3-0 ATS this year.

In your opinion, does that help make Minny a stronger play?  Let me know your thoughts.

Thanks.
 
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Posted: #14
I am with you on toronto i think it's the smart play here. Still up in the air with orlando though. I orginally like portland and the more research i do i like orlando. Maybe i should just stay away from it. I am 9-0 this week in the nba. (weeks begin on thu with my local) and it's not even about the money right now i kinda just want to keep the streak going so i am playing safer than normal.
 
 
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Posted: #15
Very insightful brew.  I have been capping NCAFF for several years and was looking for a good NBA system.  I love the attention to detail and trends.  GL luck Iam going to trail ya while I get comfertable.  I thank you for sharing your thoughts...
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by cool_trix:

Nice writeups Brewers.  Always make it a habit to read your thoughts before I make my plays.   

I know Minnesota being a NC7 makes it a chart play for you.  Minnesota also just fired their coach and McHale will be heading the helm tonight.  Does that make it a stronger play as 1st game at home with new coach is 3-0 ATS this year.

In your opinion, does that help make Minny a stronger play?  Let me know your thoughts.

Thanks.

Minny does NOT become a "chart-play" until they Cover...THEN they become a chart-play...Technically, you should keep going against Minny until the streak ends...

I think the new coach angle is 2-1 ATS as TOR did not cover their first day with the new coach...Minny is a stronger play with the new coach, but it doesn't guarantee anything...

GL...

 
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Posted: #17
Interesting stuff
 
GL
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #18
Very solid information brewers7. 
 
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Posted: #19
solid info as always brewer
 
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Posted: #20
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 27-20, +$1512
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 149-150-5
#1 picks: 23-19

Totals: 157-140-6
#1 picks: 19-22-1
=====================================

Day 43:

Running very late suddenly...If I see a 2H bet I like, I'll post it...If I feel like betting something else, I will...A bit rushed right now...A lot of chart-plays tonight, though...

Sides:

#1 Tor +12
#2 Min +5
#3 SA -1.5
#4 Orl +5.5
#5 Det -5
#6 Atl +4
#7 Milw +6.5
#8 Sac +11.5
#9 NY +7.5

Totals:

#1 NY ov 216
#2 Milw ov 205.5
#3 Det un 193.5
#4 Tor un 196.5
#5 SA un 191
#6 Orl ov 187.5
#7 Sac un 212
#8 Atl ov 191
#9 Min un 197

BET already posted...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
 
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Posted: #21
I'm now a member of the Brewcrew!
 
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Posted: #22
no doubt me to great stuff
 
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Posted: #23
Random thoughts:

Gotta give the Cavs some props...First team in NBA history to beat 9 straight opponents by 12 or more points...First team in NBA history to do so...The line was 12 (or 12.5) last night...So before the game last night against the Raptors, I had trends on my side, odds on my side, a chart-play on my side and NBA f*cking history on my side, yet CLE still won easily...It happens...Ends a nice 9-2 run I had my last 11 bets, but tomorrow is another day, it is onwards and hopefully upwards...

Since CLE plays again tonight at Philly, we will look at their current C9 cover streak...

According to my database that goes back to the 1991-92 season, CLE is the 119th team to get to C7...

Out of the previous 118 teams that got to a C7, 52 made it to a C8...
Out of the previous 52 teams that got to a C8, 23 made it to a C9...
Out of the previous 23 teams that got to a C9, 9 made it to a C10...
Out of the previous 9 teams that got to a C10, 4 made it to a C11...
Out of the previous 4 teams that got to a C11, 2 made it to a C12...
Out of the previous 2 teams that got to a C12, 1 made it to a C13...
And that team did not make it to a C14...

Cleveland now goes for a C10...

A home-and-Home with Philly, starting tonight at Philly...I personally don't believe Cleveland will cover both of these games...Home and Homes are tough to sweep, and the lines CLE will have to cover here will make it that much tougher...

But in all honesty, it's going to be hard to bet against CLE right now...I mean, their last 8 wins are all against sub .500 teams, but hey, they destroyed these teams...Destroyed them...

Anyway...

Ind/Tor -- Nobody from this pathetic Raptors team played big minutes last night...Raps are 3-0 ATS in back-enders this year...Indy 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...TOR Over 4 of their last 5 and Indy Over 5 of their last 6...

NY/NJ -- D'Antoni only played 7 last night and the starters all played heavy minutes...Knicks Under 5 straight and 6 of 7 now...Nets Under 3 straight and 4 of 5...Total at 217...Damn, I kinda want to play the Over, but 2-freaking-17...Dunno...

Cle/Phi -- no line as we wait for Elton Brand's status...I will pick Philly here but don't know if I have the balls to bet them and fade CLE yet again...But I wonder if this the classic "brewers7 was against Cleveland one game too early" spot and Philly is indeed the play...Chart-play to the Over here for CLE as they had an Under6 streak snapped with an Over last night...Philly 6-1-3 tothe Under though, their last 10 in regulation...All 3 games last season between these two team went Under...

Memp/OKC -- Tough call for me here...OKC at 2-20 and MEMP was one of their wins, so they have a team here they know they can beat, so I expect them to up for this one...Revenge spot for MEMP though, as they lost to OKC at Home 11 days ago...OKC had covered 5 straight and 7 of 8 before losing to GS last time out...These 2 teams went Over their first meeting and MEMP 5-1-1 to the Over thier last 7 while OKC 4-2 to the Over their last 6...

CHAR/NO -- At first blush, this line looks high to me...But the schedule-makers have given the Hornets a nice stretch here with lots o rest and very few games (just 2 games the last 12 days -- almost unheard of)...One thing about young teams and Larry Brown teams is that they will fight right to the end of the game...They won't quit...So are the Hornets really 12 points better now that CHAR is actually 5-4 SU their last 9 games?...Without Wallace, maybe...But I am a DOG player in the NBA and I'll never lay this many points with the Hornets against a scrappy Bobcats team, even without Gerald Wallace...CHAR Over 4 of their last 5 and NO 3-0-1 to the Over their last 4...

Atl/SA -- Big let-down spot here for the Spurs...They have been a cover machine, going 10-3 ATS their last 13...SA just 1-3 ATS in back-enders this season while ATL is 3-3 ATS in this spot...ATL 4-0-2 to the Under their last 6...

Min/Den -- Minny ends a NC7 with a Cover for their new coach (making that trend 3-1 ATS this season)...Now the T'Wolves have to deal with the Nuggets who have 3 days rest...3rd meeting between these 2 already...DEN won both, 1-1 ATS, not covering at Home...Chart-play for Minny here and they are getting double-digits...DEN 1-2 ATS when they rest and their opponent does not...

Milw/GS -- no line...Well, after the pace at PHOE last night and 235 points going up in that game, I would expect a 222 here from Vegas when the total comes out...GS Under their last 2...MILW Under 5 of 8 in back-enders this season...Warriors may need Jackson & Maggette to get this Over though...MILW 5-3 ATS in back-enders...

Phoe/LAL -- no line...Shaq played last night so one would think he will sit this one out tonight since he doesn't play back-to-backs...PHOE Over 7 straight now...Lakers Over 7 of 9...LAL 3-1 to the Under in back-enders while PHOE is 6-0 to the Over in back-enders...
 
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Posted: #24
I have been reading through a lot of threads these past couple days, and I must say that you are one of the very few who actually puts a lot of thought into this. 
 
I like Phoenix and the over.  I remembered the earlier meeting this year on TNT where the Lakers won 105-92 (Lakers and Under), this time I think we will see an opposite result.  Good luck
 
 
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