NBA 2008-09, Week 7 thread...

Had to bet these now...Almost made them all Level 2 plays, but man, that would be a lot on the line for basically betting one total one way...Love these though...Line going up...

BET:

Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 58.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250
Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 116.5, 1H, laying $275 to win $250
Level 1 -- Golden State/Denver over 228.5, laying $267.50 to win $250 -- Hate to lay juice, but I like these plays...Don Nelson pretty much said last night that he is "opening up the offense more", as if it had to be opened much more than it was, but he said "he wants to create space for his players to make plays", so this tells me that since the GS season is in the sh*tter, he is going to let these guys "have fun" at least, on offense andto hell with the defense right now as the Warriors are already conceding that this is a re-building year and there will be no postseason...The pace against HOU last night was ridiculous (195 shots and 57 FTs -- INSANE)...And now we have Denver who has been putting up points with 8 Overs i their last 9 games...GS on a back-ender and remember that game where they were on a back-ender against the Knicks at MSG?...There was absolutely no defense played in that one...Might be the same here and I also think Denver will blow them out, so I may have a play there or just play the Denver team total Over, too...Over me, here, all day long, expect 240+...

GL...

brewers7,

 

i have had no power for 2 days and i am now staying in a hotel to get warm. Also happy to see your picks.  Thanks for the help

brewers7,do you have any favs for tonight?

Here's what I have:

 

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 163-167-6
#1 picks: 23-23

Totals: 169-159-8
#1 picks: 21-24-1
=====================================

Day 47:

Totals have had 5 losing days he last 6 and only winning day was a 2-1 day THUR...#1 Sides ice cold again, losing 4 straight...#1 plays last year about 7 weeks in were up 30 to 40 units (closer to 40), while this year, down about 4 or 5...Incredibly slow start and maybe it'll be "slow" all year for me, who knows...I may have to really pick my spots this season...I do know I need to make better betting decisions as it is against my nature to bet against a team on a long streak, I generally wait for the long streak to end and then fade them for a spell...But I went against CLE twice this week due to the situatonal spots and paid for it...1-3 week after a 9-2 stretch...Somehow, through all this, I am up on the year...I missed that Tor/NJ Over 2H last night as the criteria was just about met in every instance and the pace was fine in the 1H to get that 2H Over...

I like 7-to-10 plays tonight a lot (top 5 sides and top 5 totals), but man, I just cannot bet 10 games with as cold as I have been, although there is always a break-out day when I am this cold and I wonder if tonight is the break-out night or if tonight will be another bad one...

NJ is a simple "automatic" play on a team that shot less than 33% the game before (like SAC did the game before they beat LAL as 11.5 Dogs)...

Philly has the new coach angle (3-1 ATS this season)...

Cle has the 4 of 5 vs. another 4 of 5 and the Away team generally covers this, but CLE on this long Cover streak taking all the value away from this one...

Denver should just mangle GS tonight...

Since I am cold this week, I am only betting plays till further notice that jump off the page at me and the two I bet met that criteria...

I should be home in time tonight to be looking at 2H plays...

Sides:

#1 NJ +4.5
#2 Phi -5.5
#3 Orl +5.5
#4 Cle -4
#5 Den -15.5
#6 Hou -4
#7 Char +1
#8 OKC +12.5
#9 Ind +4.5
#10 Sac -1

Totals:

#1 Den ov 229.5
#2 Sac ov 218.5
#3 Cle un 187.5
#4 Phi ov 195.5
#5 Char un 184
#6 NJ ov 204.5
#7 Ind ov 205
#8 Orl un 200
#9 Hou un 191
#10 OKC ov 205

BETs already posted...Debating others...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

BOL on full game total...i was also on the 1q and 1h overs......

 

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-26, +$417
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 167-173-6
#1 picks: 23-24

Totals: 174-164-8
#1 picks: 21-25-1
=====================================

Day 48:

"That's gambling"...

I want to thank everyone for the well-wishes after that first last night (losing 3 different totals bets on the same game by 1/2 a point each, 1Q, 1H and Game), something that will probably never happen to me again in this lifetime...

Surprisingly, it doesn't bother me as much as I thought it would...I had a long day at work, and fell asleep at half-time of the GS/Den game, so I missed the final dagger, a third half-point loss in the same game...The ironic thing was that I was on the Team totals page at Olympic about to make my first-ever Team total bet (Over on Denver, TT was 122.5), and at the last second, I chickened out and THAT would have been a half-point winner...Too funny...Funny faux pas, though, not funny haha, for sure...

But to think though, that if Stephen Jackson (a very good FT shooter) didn't miss that one FT in the 1Q, I would have won ALL 3 bets...Wow, good thing I have an iron-cast stomach...If I was still doing this "professionally" like I did for 3.5 years (where this was my only income -- and believe me, you'd BETTER have an iron-cast stomach when your bills depend on winning games like this), I'd undoubtedly be very, very p*ssed, but since betting games has been back to "hobby" status the last 2 seasons, I think that is why I am more or less just taking it in stride a bit because, yeah, it's a bit of a "bad beat" for sure, but I realize that hey, it's gambling and stuff like this happens a lot during the course of the season...The trick is to bounce back and hope these things even out over the course of the season...

In reality, I consider myself lucky to even be at EVEN on this horrible season right now, even after last night...Yes, last night is a 6-unit swing because of 1 missed FT, but even with that, even with my #1 sides and #1 totals BOTH being at sub .500 at the same time for the first time this season and even with some questionable betting decisions (to honestly criticize myself, going against on-going streaks, which I rarely do), I actually am still somehow at EVEN on the year...I am not even sure how when I look at my record...I really don't...#1 Sides have lost 5 straight now (2nd time in the last 17 days) and they are my pride and joy...Once, I went through an entire NBA regular season and did NOT lose 5 in a row on my #1 sides...Entire season...That would have been a huge winning bonanza if I would have martingaled those #1 sides...

I have often compared the start of this season to the start of the 2003-04 NBA season for me, the last time I did not explode right of the gate...And previous to 2003-04, all my seasons were like 2003-04, slow the first 6 weeks, then hot from mid-DEC through early March, give-or-take, with some exceptions...So I went back and examined my #1 sides and totals from 2003-04...

My NBA Sides were terrible until January 29th...Started 38-51-2...But on January 29, I had a streak of 10 wins in a row and I had my first-ever Level 3 play on FEB 5th, and that was my first-ever post on any Internet forum (the old wagerline forum)...Philly -3 over the Lakers...A great situational spot...I told everyone to jump on Philly...But it was my first post ever, so who would believe me, in retrospect?...Philly won by 23 and it was my 8th straight #1 sides winner...My #1 sides went 50-23 after that 38-51-2 start...My #1 totals started the year 49-32-1, before tanking when my Sides got hot...The following season, my #1 totals started the season 22-6 and 26-7 and remained hot through Week 16, before collapsing the final 8 weeks...

So with this bad start with BOTH the #1 sides & totals, I am more or less in uncharted waters...Started out scorching hot last year in both categories then leveled off...Same the year before that...Maybe this year I won't heat up...Could happen...

My records are updated above...I'll have picks posted before the Toronto game starts...My first-blush look at the board tells me I like nothing as nothing jumps out, so probably no bets, but I'll troll around hoping for a 2H bet...

I may greatly reduce the number of bets for a spell and start doing Level 2 bets, which means I'll be very selective...Haven't decided for sure...Even though this is a hobby for me now, I want to make some coin at this hobby, so I'll be making adjustments in an effort to do so...Because man, I hate to lose...

NO BETS...

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

Tempted to bet Memphis, but will pass and look at 2H lines today...For tracking purposes:

Sides:

#1 Memp +1.5
#2 Min +15.5
#3 Tor +2
#4 OKC +16.5

Totals:

#1 Memp un 193.5
#2 Min ov 209.5
#3 OKC ov 196.5
#4 Tor un 194.5

So strange how certain games just fall like that throughout the course and yes its always easier imo to just switch off and check the scores after everything is completed,especially the west coast games as I look at it, I would rather deal with the loss and not be tired also but that mainly applies during the week day games.

Definately hard to stomach but the next wager just helps fade the memory.

Take it easy man and as always much appreciated.

Thanx guys, but in all seriousness, tough losses happen during the course of the season and in this particular instance, for whatever reason, it didn't bother me that much and in fact, I forgot to tell this part of the story, but I was tired and going to bed at halftime of that GS/Den game, so I looked at the halftime and almost decided to chase those two 1/2 point losses with a Leval 1 play on the 2H line, which was 112.5...I considered it for about 30 seconds...Didn't do it because I already had the bet on the game line...had I bet the 2H Over 112.5, I would have lost by, yes, you guessed it, 1/2 a point as the 2H was 112...Wow...I should have bet it just to have something historic to look back on years from now, losing 4 totals in the same game by 1/2 a point (1Q, 1H, 2H, Game), but I guess 3 was enough...

I already bet two 1Q lines tonight...Am looking at some game-line possibilities...

BET:

Level 1 -- New York/Phoenix over 57.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Phoenix has gone Over 9 straight games and 7 of 9 in the 1Q...NY always comes out fast (scoring 43 themselves in a 64-point 1Q last tie out at SAC)...I expect a wild and crazy 1Q as PHOE getting J-Rich means they are looking to score more and work a faster pace, IMO, as they got rid of their best defender in Bell...I already know the pace will be there for an Over in the 1Q, just need the shots to fall...

Level 1 -- Orlando/Golden State over 56, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Same thing here...I already know the pace will be here for an Over in the 1Q, I just need shots to fall...I have been fairly selective with my 1Q Overs since Week 1, where i had a close-call winner, taking only the games where I know the pace is greatly in my favor...ORL should get sucked in to the GS pace and without Howard, I cannot see them playing too many half-court sets...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

brew, any reason you want the 1Q, and not the game??

It seems to me you avoid losing to a poor shooting start if you bet at least an entire half...

Brew love the system gl my friend also take a look anytime OKC plays if OKC is on top or down by less than 10 take the other team the 2h if they are down by 10 or more take OKC the 2h been pretty good to me this year not really system matic just a trend that has been working

GL TO YOU tonight

THX BREW

one advice for you. This is way too much info. Eliminate what you don't know to what you know and you will become a better investor. This is an advice from WARREN BUFFET. What you have is way too much info and I mean all these stats not necessary will generate winner. 

 

Good luck! i like your work effort!