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NBA O/U System Plays Monday 11/21

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Posted: #151
NBA_nate I do something similar, I think, during baseball season, but I'll talk about that in April...
 
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Posted: #152
System is looking crazy, I'm just really angry with myself that I didn't follow more of these U/O picks on this spreadsheet, i chose LAL/GSW under and SAC/OKC Under
Looks like SAC/OKC Will be ok with the under
LAL/GSW on the other hand... LOL 
 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by Vapster:

NBA_nate My head is starting to spin! Did you check the spread sheet?

TKWSNx93 As the nerd of this thread, (and that's o.k. I learned from the movie 21 Jump Street, that nerds are cool now...) Is anything NBA_nate saying making sense?
Yes, and I am going to see if I can make a spreadsheet/calculator that his idea too

We have to be nice to nerds! We all work for them
 
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Posted: #154
@NBA Nate...was following along with your efforts last night and was hoping you'd pop up here...good stuff.

Do you run those calculations through a spread sheet you've built (I hope)?

Sending a PM request through Nate.

Also, the biggest divergence tonight was the LAL/GS game, which I noted earlier in the day, as possible red flag. That game is absolutely going nuts with the over, even though we suggest it should be in the 220 range.

I'm curious if we see this as a pattern going forward.
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by HaroldG:

System is looking crazy, I'm just really angry with myself that I didn't follow more of these U/O picks on this spreadsheet, i chose LAL/GSW under and SAC/OKC Under
Looks like SAC/OKC Will be ok with the under
LAL/GSW on the other hand... LOL 
yeah, the LAL injuries are too much..this one was definitely an over pick. Unfortunately I took the under, but from now on the system will take injuries into further consideration

We need to hope that GSW rests their starters or something, otherwise this is going WAYY over
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by HaroldG:

System is looking crazy, I'm just really angry with myself that I didn't follow more of these U/O picks on this spreadsheet, i chose LAL/GSW under and SAC/OKC Under
Looks like SAC/OKC Will be ok with the under
LAL/GSW on the other hand... LOL 


If you feel like it, you can always "in-game" some of the stats. OKC, for instance. Check the half totals, or quarter totals. They tell a similar tale.
 
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Posted: #157
Good idea everyone. I took the Under as well for the LAL@GSW. Didn't even remember to consider the LAL injuries. 
 
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Posted: #158
TKWSNx93 add 1 more 10-1
 
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Posted: #159
    • 3688
    • Houston ·Toronto 
      Total puncte
    • 24.11 03:00
    • 220.5
    • TP1
    • 1.52
  • 3685
  • Philadelphia ·Memphis 
    Total puncte
  • 24.11 02:00
  • 189.5
  • TP2
  • 1.52
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by Vapster:

NBA_nate My head is starting to spin! Did you check the spread sheet?

TKWSNx93 As the nerd of this thread, (and that's o.k. I learned from the movie 21 Jump Street, that nerds are cool now...) Is anything NBA_nate saying making sense?

I just posted a detailed response but the Comp. had a fit so I'm not going to re-type it all......

basically, I put more emphasis on the last five games than than the whole year (offense + defense)

Then I simply add (last 5 game) offense numbers for both teams together, sometimes the results are a few points different.

Example:
Team 1 just played, OKC, GS, POR, TOR, LAC, and lost all 5 games. Their own teams scoring will be less than half of the total.

If team #2 is in the same boat, then both teams scoring will be less than adding both teams offense and defense together and dividing by 2.

Hope this helps,

Nate
 
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Posted: #161
How does this work for halfs 
 
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Posted: #162
Hmm so perhaps I can make a spreadsheet that calculates the numbers for 
Overall, last 5, and home/away

Then perhaps find the average of those three? 
 
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Posted: #163
that error. TP1=under TP2=over great night 10-1 so far2 more but 1 phew
 
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Posted: #164
Quote Originally Posted by bostonguy919:

How does this work for halfs 
Not tested, but a user a few pages back claimed it worked really well. He adds ppg for the 1st/2nd quarters (1st half) and ppg for 3rd/4th quarters (2nd half)
 
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Posted: #165
  • 1301
  • Golden State ·LA Lakers
    Total puncte
  • 24.11 05:30
  • 232.5
  • TP1
  • 1.52
  • 3691
  • Sacramento ·Oklahoma City 
    Total puncte
  • 24.11 05:30
  • 216.5
  • TP1
  • 1.52
 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by breakstuff:

that error. TP1=under TP2=over great night 10-1 so far2 more but 1 phew
Technically the system is 10-1, but some users (myself included) are 11-0 as we were able to get a few extra points for TOR/HOU. The system was off by only half a point with a 216.5 total!
 
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by TKWSNx93:

Hmm so perhaps I can make a spreadsheet that calculates the numbers for 
Overall, last 5, and home/away

Then perhaps find the average of those three? 

That might be the way to go...But would like to hear what others think as well
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by JamieR44:

@NBA Nate...was following along with your efforts last night and was hoping you'd pop up here...good stuff.

Do you run those calculations through a spread sheet you've built (I hope)?

Sending a PM request through Nate.

Also, the biggest divergence tonight was the LAL/GS game, which I noted earlier in the day, as possible red flag. That game is absolutely going nuts with the over, even though we suggest it should be in the 220 range.

I'm curious if we see this as a pattern going forward.

Spreadsheets are a work in process...

Also have another of interest I'm working on, but It'll take a while:
Started with Toronto:
14 total games
7 on the road, until tonight, all 7 were within 10 points
Using a 2-bet system of 3-way Any-Other-Result (Covers 5 point win either way) and also the 6-10 pt win (either way) on the 7-way, would have covered all 7 games (until tonight ... lol)
Those bets are usually 2.9 odds for the <5>, and 3.2 for the 6-10, with an average of 3.05 / 2 bets, would have gotten an average of 1.525 on all 7 games.

And before tonight, 7 of their 14 games were within 5 points. A 2.9 bet (<5>) on all 14 games would have paid out 1/2 the time with an overall avg. payout of 1.45 odds.

Not a perfect system, but it may work with some teams, not others.... for example: GS, MIN, IND which have combined for 19 blowouts (16+ points diff.) in the first 3 weeks of November.



Also, don't forget the insanity at Cleveland tonight.... K. Love w/ 34 pts in the 1st Qtr, NBA record for 1st Qtr, 2nd only to Klay T's 37 pts in the 3rd Qtr last year.
 
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Posted: #169
im glad u cud do this but unfortunately for me my bets don't include OT so PHI count as a lose for me but hey10-1 i gladly take it so ty m8
 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by TKWSNx93:

Yes, and I am going to see if I can make a spreadsheet/calculator that his idea too

We have to be nice to nerds! We all work for them

Hey come on now....... I may be a bit nerdy but I've tripped pipe on a drilling rig, and roofed all last summer .... not a complete fish lol
 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by TKWSNx93:

Hmm so perhaps I can make a spreadsheet that calculates the numbers for 
Overall, last 5, and home/away

Then perhaps find the average of those three? 

I like this idea
 
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Posted: #172
The record was what 10-3? And obviously i chose the two loses out all of those wins haha lucky me! Nevertheless tho 11-3 today! I'll try to follow this one and think of some ways how to improve it and understand it more! Much respect
 
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Posted: #173
So, the two biggest outliers on the board, GS/LAL OKC/SAC both predicted to go under went OVER...something to watch.
 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by Vapster:

NBA_nate My head is starting to spin! Did you check the spread sheet?

TKWSNx93 As the nerd of this thread, (and that's o.k. I learned from the movie 21 Jump Street, that nerds are cool now...) Is anything NBA_nate saying making sense?

Ok, here's a better one, since the OKC / SAC game just finished...

I took a  look at the google spreadsheet, nice, simple, works good I like it,

It showed a total of 202.5, and a O/U of 214, so a -11.5.

Not sure how many games this calculates, I actually had a 208.5 (Yearly), so a difference of -5.5.

But the last five games (my calculations) showed an increase from 208.5 up to 216.
Then when I used only the offense numbers for the 2 teams (5 games), I had 107.4 and 106.6 for a total of 214.

I figured OKC might be a little tired tonight on the back-to-back so I bet Under on them, but I chose to up my Under to 215.5 @ 1.74 (down from 1.90), but I still missed it by 1.5 pts.......
 
 
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Posted: #175
Quote Originally Posted by NBA_nate:


Ok, here's a better one, since the OKC / SAC game just finished...

I took a  look at the google spreadsheet, nice, simple, works good I like it,

It showed a total of 202.5, and a O/U of 214, so a -11.5.

Not sure how many games this calculates, I actually had a 208.5 (Yearly), so a difference of -5.5.

But the last five games (my calculations) showed an increase from 208.5 up to 216.
Then when I used only the offense numbers for the 2 teams (5 games), I had 107.4 and 106.6 for a total of 214.

I figured OKC might be a little tired tonight on the back-to-back so I bet Under on them, but I chose to up my Under to 215.5 @ 1.74 (down from 1.90), but I still missed it by 1.5 pts.......
Interesting points
It may be better to find the average between home/away, and last 5. We can keep track of this next time!
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