nba playoffs

2h

okc -5

2h

over 106.5

75-58-1 playoffs


Future Series Bets:

IND 2.35
OKC 2.25

it still boggles my mind how people continue to think that the league is 100% legit. it's beyond ignorance or naivety.

^^^ah crap my quotes didnt work

very nice 3B 

Bounce back tomorrow. It's been a horrid last 2 days so time to crush the books again.

Leaning:

BK game 5 BIG TIME!

just for reference, here's my thoughts on the clip/OKC game 5

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101888907&page=1

" i wouldn't be surprised they give game 6 to Clips to make up the robbery and then the league has their game 7 ratings bonanza."

quote from me, from my thread. Leaning Clippers game 6. plus imagine the anger from the Clips squad after being robbed. they will come out firing in this next game. Imagine the ratings for a game 7!!!!! it would be bonkers.

Agreed......

yeah, can see that happening, but just chasing the steam ie (the five figure orders) telling me someone, or multiple someones.....know something...and given the lay side is + ev to begin with, albeit slightly

 

you guys are way too advanced for me. i wish i really had the time to really delve in deeper w/ this sports betting thing like i used to when i first started learning the ropes on here. but unfortunately w/ 2 small kids time & energy has really been a factor. But really glad people like yourselves introduce me to things like this in hope for me to get a grasp of later on when i do have the time.

I remember when i had no kids and had alot more time i would read profusely when researching games. i would sometimes ready up to 10 articles per play/per game just to get any sort of gist on how a team is feeling, how they will approach the next game, the mental state of particular players, mental state of a team etc. etc. just to gain any sort of edge that can assist in determining a play. Then after that i would crunch the numbers. Ultimately i'd spend several hours  researching just one game/play. I would come out with score predictions and deficits after doing the math. in the first few seasons being on covers i would go on numerous runs per season....sometimes big runs like 22-1 etc. and score predictions would almost be spot on. I felt like god........

.........then the kids came, sleep deprivation kicked in, insomnia, fatigue etc. etc. my picks suffered. no longer crunched numbers, no longer read even one article at times and pretty much just whent on gut. Kids are a little older now so i have more time than i used to hence the nice runs i've been having last season and today.

the line atm on covers is lac -4.5. the same line that opened in game 3 when OKC won su. game 4 heat/bk there was heavy public play on Miami. everybody on covers were all over Miami also. public i guess thinking they bounce back after losing game 3 and they won anyway. So i'm not afraid of taking the public team here if i do decide to play the Clips. This is going to be one p***ssed off squad. Doc came out publicly and stated his opinion on the refs and the outcome and i quote said they got 'ROBBED'. Surely the league will compensate this team even a little bit for them to get the advantage at home like they gave OKC on their home floor last night.

Pacers are quite baffling......I sweat It's hibbert......this guy is really suss.

- in their opening series home game he goes 0-0 - Indy lose.
- in their game 5 loss he goes 4-2 - Indy lose

but in their 3 wins Hibbert goes:

game 2: 28-9
game 3: 14-5
game 4: 17-9



His play determines Pacers outcome. He switches on and off & to make things even more bizarre his an All-Star. Dude is on the take


lol i dunno but he is mad suspect. If he chooses to show up for game 6 Wash are done, If not we'll be off for game 7. Wonder what his decision will be.

leaning:

bk +7
por +8

like the plays 

Go with portland

Good luck 3B

Bomber, there is not right or wrong way to cap, some use sdql, others use clv, +ev etc., even the tout sheets have value....just as much about money management as picking winners....been doing this for over 40 years.....with all the variance in these games...gonna have winning and losing streaks no matter what methods you use...old time bookie once told me.....,kid, pay your bills when you win.....sound advice.......the computer age has certainly helped though

Great quote, but never heard of clv? 40 years is a very long time. Hope those 40 years have been wildly successful.

3BB, keep it up man. Always been a fan of you and LeagueCapper. Two of the few I respect around here.

BK +7 large

2h

BK +7

POR +8.5

closing line value, when placing your bet vs. the closing line, theories abound that if you can be the closer ( as it is the most efficient line) that you will win long term...guys that have computer forecasting models whom originate their own lines....value this approach