Posted:
#251
WARRIORS VS SPURS............................................
All-time classic matchup, Spurs are 5-5 VS Warriors past 3 years. Most losses by any team for Warriors.
Warriors are the better team but are a weak rebounding team, and weak rebounding teams have a strong past history of failure in NBA Playoffs. and rarely win titles or even make the finals.
Spurs 50.8%..............Spurs better by 1.95
Warriors 48.85%
49.5% rebs would be considered good enough to win titles, 49.25 may be enough and kind of in what I call the the gray area, can't really rule them out but getting a bit to weak, once a team drops below 49% that is clearly weak.
Now, we can argue this with, there has never been a weak rebounding team rank no.1 in my PR's like the Warriors who are clearly head and shoulders above the 2cd ranked Spurs.
PRI....................
Warriors 11.6.................Warriors by 4.5
Spurs 7.1
PRII............
Warriors 55.25.................Warriors by 1.08
Spurs 54.17
PRII is rebound heavier used to measure more balance which Warriors still over 1 pt better, teams better by 1 pt or more do quite well in conference finals.
There has never been a team like the Warriors over history to judge such teams. Warriors set the record since 1974 in out-shooting opps in shooting efficiency ....... 2pt, 3pt, FT and TO's added together, in other words everything a team does BUT rebounding which is a seperate skill.
Warriors outshoot opps by ....51.22-44.82 = 6.4 %
Spurs ........................................48.7-45.33 = 3.37 %
Warriors better by 3.03 %, wow that is huge, over 1% is very strong and a good indicator to win a series.
Being a weak rebounding team one thing we consistently see is these type teams do tend to trail in the series at some point from game 3 and on, quite a bit more so then all other teams that are top rated and do well in playoffs.
In 2015 Warriors were 49.3% rebs, in the gray area and trailed after the 3rd game in 2 of 4 playoff series.
And last year 2016 Warriors 49.75% rebs not a weak rebounding team, but very, very mediorce, VS a strong dominate rebounding team in OKC (53.55%) trailed 3-1.
I would not be the least bit surprised to see Spurs get early control of this series and go up 2-1, it very well could happen based on the history off these type teams.
And this especially true because of how well the Warriors have been playing to this point, that will only motivate the Spur to prove they can win games VS the Warriors, an added incentive, and we already see what the Celtic's did with added incentive , run off 6 straight SU and ATS covers.
Teams as strong as this Spurs team is with the kind of all-around balance they have do have a very strong history of splitting games 1 and 2 on the road, I would look for the Spurs to win SU either game 1 or 2 and we have some really great ML value there.
I would lean more to being game 2 but I could be wrong as well and miss-out on a great ML play in game 1, so that is the debate at this point.
Powerhouse teams like the Warriors who are over a PRI rating of 8 ..............off a series with a losing ATS record at home (Warriors 0-2 ATS at home VS Jazz) are 11-3 ATS in game 1 of the next series.
Warriors also off 2 ATS losses in previous game 1's , not likely will this team do so poorly at home and in game 1's. You can not keep these powerhouse type teams down at home for any length of time.
Leads me to believe Warriors may just roll the Spurs game 1 and Spurs bounce back and win game 2 SU.
Especially true with Spurs off a 39 pt win, the largest of playoffs.
But we do have Warriors off 2 ATS wins and a blowout 25 pt win as well, not the best spot either.
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