Posted:
#201
MY LINES...............................................
Raps -4.88 over Cavs
Wiz -3.03 over Celtics
Rockets -.97 over Spurs
We have plays on the Raps, Celtics and Spurs at the current lines.
Wiz may win SU but even if they do Celtics very likely to plsy much better and Wiz off a 27 pt win, with my lines fading them, good spot to back Celtics ATS.
Rockets in the same must win as Wiz and may get the SU win but even if they do Spurs on another level over Rockets and very well could be in this game with a chance to cover ATS.
Spurs also a largest mismatch team off 2 ATS wins and a 25 pt blowout win and cover, not the best spot to back the Spurs.
Will possibly pass on this game.
Cavs have now entered the "regression zone" playing on an unsustainable level of play.
From 2009 -2016 teams that have been in this spot are 3-12 ATS in the 1st game after being in this spot, 1-12-1 ATS in the 2cd game and 6-7 ATS in the 3rd game.
Warriors in this exact same spot going into game 1 VS Jazz and the info played out perfectly as Warriors failed to cover the 1st...2 games of the spot.
Many times there is a good size dog win SU in this spot, what I thought we'd have a good shot with Jazz winning SU in games 1 or 2.
We'll be coming in on Raps game 4 on the line and ML, wait-out this line, looks like public loves LBJ and his Cavs in this game,
If you read the article on the front page on LBJ being money in close-out games, well, let's take a look at LBJ and his closeout games past 2 years and this year.
2016 in the 1st or 2cd round.............................
Cavs -6.5 over Pistons after leading 3-0, won by 2.
Cavs -5.5 over Hawks after leading 3-0 , won by 1
2015 in the 1st and 2cd round...........................
Cavs -6.5 over Celtics after leading 3-0, won by 8, but the line did open 8, so had you got the best line you would have pushed fading LBJ
Cavs +2 over Bulls after leading 3-2 in game 6 not game 4, Cavs won by 21
2017.............................
Cavs -4 over Pacers after leading 3-0, won by 4.
LBJ and his Cavs do what all other teams do, they excel in closeout games the later in the series the close-out game comes, earlier in the series teams do not have the same intensity to play hard and closeout the series.
Let's look at how LBJ came into those closeout games...............
2015 Bulls in game 6 not game 4, off a SU loss and a 2 pt win and a 5 pt win .0-3 ATS
2015 Celtics, won by 13 by 8 ands by 8, 2-1 ATS.
2016 Pistons won by 5 by 17 and by 10, 2-1 ATS
2016 Hawks, won by 11 won by 25 won by 13 , 3-0 ATS,
Cavs biggest run very similar to this year was VS Hawks where they barely got a win by 1 pt as a 5.5 favorite.
Cavs smallest run was VS Bulls and it was a game 6 not game 4 which is far more common for all teams and the only time they won handily in a closeout game 1st two rounds of the past 2 plus years now.
Cavs coming into this closeout game off a 11 pt win, 25 pt win and a 21 pt win .
Cavs at best are 2-2-1 ATS in closeout games 2015 - 2017 in 1st or 2cd round, and after leading 3-0 in a game 4 at best Cavs are 1-2-1 ATS and had you got best line 0-2-2 ATS in a game 4.
The right play is on the Raps.
After the game we'll be hearing about the fix was in because how can a team so good at close-out games lose SU , had you look closer Cavs are not that good in closeout games in this exact spot.
The games play-out the same way they always have played-out, but unless you do your homework you won't know that.
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