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NBA PLAYOFFS......................................................2019

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 2, 2019 - 1:26 PM ET #301

Forgot to add the better rebounding team in regular season almost always covers 1 of the 1st.... 2 games, and that'd be Warriors.

But again without Durant we don't know the true value of Warriors but the info does suggest the right play is on Warriors. The info does seem to work quite a bit even with injuries .

To risky to take any action though.

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 7:42 AM ET #302

leans --- 1-0 ATS

YEPPER Warriors able to pull out the win without Durant and with Klay going down and out and Looney out and they did it on the road.

OMG, Raps let a golden oppurtunity slip away. Grabbing a 2-0 lead would have been very big with Durant possibly coming back.

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 8:03 AM ET #303

MY LINES ......................................game 3 (weds)

Warriors -5.67 over Raptors

game 3's with series tied 1-1 we don't use my lines , instead we'd back the team to win the series if we have strong info one team or the other will win series

Durant out, Looney out, Klay questionable.

If Klay is out which we may not know untill game time, no-way we can back the Warriors here.

Not that we would have anyway but just saying. Can't see backing Warriors with all these injuries.

Anyone wanting to back the Warriors is OVER-REACTING to the game 2 win in which Warriors gutted-out a big win as a proven winner, heart of a champion type win.

With Looney out Cousins who did play well may have to play far more minutes and doubtful he in the game shape needed to be effective doing this.

Warriors not only will be without 2 starters if Klay is out but lose depth with Looney out.

With both Klay and Durant out , how many points would that be worth in my line ?

taking a rough quess, at least 3 to 4 points minimum, that puts the line at Warriors -2.67 to -1.67.

And if we don't use my line but instead back team to win series we'd take the Raptors with those 3 players out.

either way the Raptors seem like the play.

If Klay is ruled out we.....................................

Lean --- Raptors + points

If he plays we pass...........................................

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 4:55 PM ET #304

PLAYOFF VERSION MY LINES.................................game 3

Warriors -7.21 over Raptors

3 to 4 points for injuried players brings line to.......Warriors -4.21 to 3.21

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 7:29 AM ET #305

Yepper without Durant and Klay no way we take Warriors. To much to ask these other Warriors to beat a very good, solid pro team without 2 of your starters.

The way it looks, Durant has not seen the court as of yet, he was in weight room though but not even seeing any court time doesn't seem likely he would play game 4.

Kerr says he could play off 1 practice, yea he could.....IF..... no pain and he recovers ok the next day and those are very, very big ...IF'S.......... it's not impossible but how likely is it ?

Klay very likely will play , he said he could have played game 3 but they wanted to keep him out to be safe as he had some pain.

But will he be 100% ? That type injury will affect his defense but not his jump shot if he is not 100%.

He almost certainly will have to play if Durant does not come back as risking a 3-1 deficit is all she wrote even if both players come back game 5.

If Klay plays but not Durant we pass on game 4.

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 7:33 AM ET #306

Leans --- 1-0

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Streakcash

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 426

Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 8:52 PM ET #307

Golden State -118 to Champion. NBA. ... Golden Probably lost again.. Toronto 3- 1 Golden.... And Durant. back. To Game 5 .. Durant + Thompson + Curry = Champion all day... $$$$ good luck fan boy

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 7, 2019 - 8:01 AM ET #308

MY LINES ..............................game 4 (fri)

we give 2 pts to team trailing by 1 game

Warriors -7.67 over Raptors

PLAYOFF VERSION MY LINES.............................

Warriors -9.21 over Raptors

As we expected Durant is out and Klay is playing. Down 2-1 Klay has to play no choice really, even if he is not 100%, if he injuries it again , well, so what they have to take that chance at this point.

He said he could of played and wanted to play game 3 so we should assume he is close to 100%.

Even with Klay at 100% we think Warriors should only be very slight favorites over the Raps to win the series. But now down a game , we can see either team winning this series from here.

Durant still has not played in any scrimmages with team , has done some court work alone but not playing with the team. This time 2 days off between games is much tougher to say if he'll play in game 5.

If line drops to 4 we may consider the Warriors, under 4 we'd Lean Warriors for sure.

We'd have to get 5.5 to 6 to Lean Raps.

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theclaw

All-Star

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Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 7, 2019 - 8:39 AM ET #309

Oh that magical triple double as those experts want to try and say.................

Yep in the finals we have seen this quite a bit, look at Green game 1, yepper a magical triple double 10 pts, 10 rebs, 10 assists.

But his team lost the game, why ? In part because he shot the ball dreadfully bad. 2 of 9 or 22.2 %.

Since FG % is the single most important stat that has the highest correlation to winning any game. Lose this all-important area and your very likely to lose the game regardless of any double-double you may get in other areas.

Most every player with any kind of offensive skill can score 10 points, BIG DEAL.

SHOOTING EFFECTIVELY IS ANOTHER STORY, THAT TAKES FAR MORE SKILL.

LBJ was famous for this, shooting low %'s , scoring less then 20 pts but then getting a double-double in assists and rebs but his team losing the game and the experts were WOW'd again by his triple double.

So when he shoots the ball terrible he then decides to reb and pass more EFFECTIVELY ?

How about shOot the ball well, score well AND REB AND PASS MORE EFFECTIVE, do all three at once , now that'd be something to WOW over.

MJ had games like 44 pts on 55% shooting while getting 8 rbs and 7 assists in finals. AND NO SURPRISE HIS TEAM WON.

LBJ would have games with 18 pts on 42% shooting and have 12 rebs and 10 assists to get a triple double while MJ came up short. AND NO SURPRISE LBJ'S TEAM LOST.

But make no mistake about which player contributed far, far more to help his team win the game, it was MJ.

4 REBS AND 3 ASSIST DO NOT COME CLOSE TO MAKING UP FOR 26 PTS ON 12% BETTER SHOOTING. NOT EVEN CLOSE.

In those 2 stat lines the player to be WOW'd over should be hands-down MJ not LBJ's triple double.

We'll come up with a far better way to measure triple doubles .

You could say a player needs to score 25 pts with over 50% shooting and or 55% EFG %. WHILE GETTING 10 in 2 other areas.

Now that be worth calling a stat line magical........................

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Prop_Source

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2019

Posts: 59

Posted: Jun. 7, 2019 - 3:48 PM ET #310

love the triple double take Claw, you get it.

Low turnovers is also something I value. Kawhi has a really low turnover rate over his career for a superstar with high usage

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ProKaeper

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2019

Posts: 10

Posted: Jun. 7, 2019 - 8:53 PM ET #311

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES ..............................game 4 (fri)we give 2 pts to team trailing by 1 gameWarriors -7.67 over RaptorsPLAYOFF VERSION MY LINES.............................Warriors -9.21 over RaptorsAs we expected Durant is out and Klay is playing. Down 2-1 Klay has to play no choice really, even if he is not 100%, if he injuries it again , well, so what they have to take that chance at this point.He said he could of played and wanted to play game 3 so we should assume he is close to 100%.Even with Klay at 100% we think Warriors should only be very slight favorites over the Raps to win the series. But now down a game , we can see either team winning this series from here.Durant still has not played in any scrimmages with team , has done some court work alone but not playing with the team. This time 2 days off between games is much tougher to say if he'll play in game 5.If line drops to 4 we may consider the Warriors, under 4 we'd Lean Warriors for sure.We'd have to get 5.5 to 6 to Lean Raps.

Hi claw

With klay back, I definitely like GSW to cover and win big at home gm4. I actually think the line is too low, should be more like -8.5 or -9. GSW will adjust and control the game right from tip-off. Champs will show up and win comfortably a low scoring game. This will be the game the D shows up and keep TOR under 90 pts. BOL to everyone.

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 7, 2019 - 9:09 PM ET #312

Line looks like it hit 5.5 in some spots , but we pass on this game. I only see 5 at my books though.

It is very difficult to win back to back road games VS good teams playing at home, Warriors likely win SU but ATS we pass.

Without Durant just to tough to get accurate measure of this Warriors team.

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 7, 2019 - 9:13 PM ET #313

Quote Originally Posted by ProKaeper:

Hi claw

With klay back, I definitely like GSW to cover and win big at home gm4. I actually think the line is too low, should be more like -8.5 or -9. GSW will adjust and control the game right from tip-off. Champs will show up and win comfortably a low scoring game. This will be the game the D shows up and keep TOR under 90 pts. BOL to everyone.

With Durant I'd agree could be that high but without Durant I don't think line should be at 8.5 or 9.

But if they had Durant they likely wouldn't be behind 2-1 either.

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Streakcash

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 426

Posted: Jun. 8, 2019 - 6:12 PM ET #314

Jajajaaja!!! Super Golden State wins 4-3. Of 3-1 weak up ! No Durant.. No Problem... Thmpson + Curry = Champions ... Good luck... Master.. Jajajaj.. Golden State +450 Champions. Youu see boy jajaj. Bye bye Raptors

i love U Mafia .. More games More money lol !!!

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 9, 2019 - 10:21 AM ET #315

MY LINES ............................................game 5 (mon)

in close-out games we give no additional points to either team

Raptors -2.33 over Warriors

since 1992 with a 1 pt diff to closing line.........................13-6 ATS

with a 2 pt diff to closing line 10-4 ATS

LIKELY NOT UP TO DATE, could be couple of years ago...... 2-1-1 ATS past 4 years

team with a 3-1 series lead and a close-out game............................

with a 1 pt diff 9-5 ATS

with a 2 pt diff 7-3 ATS

with a 2 pt diff and off a SU win 6-2 ATS

Question becomes, how much is Durant worth ?

At least 2 pts being conservative.......makes the line -4.33, points to Raptors

Not the best of spots for Raptors off 2 ATS wins , BUT NOT THE WORST OF SPOTS EITHER.

In a close-out game in game 4 or 5 .....IF..... the teams are close to being evenly matched rarely does the team close it out on the 1st try....................points to Warriors

Durant still has not practiced with the team but they claim he could wake up some morning and be ready, it's a day to day thing.

Trying to determine how good this Warriors team is without Durant is difficult using the info we do.

One thing is pretty clear though, Warriors are not likely coming back to win this series, with or without Durant.

Just because they did it once VS OKC does not increase their chances to do it again.

The odds are still the same, very, very low.

Just because the Cavs came-back down 3-1 VS Warriors does not increase the Warriors chances to do it.

Now, if you believe the fix is in then that certainly changes the odds if Warriors get lots of help from the refs.

When all is said and done that help likely will not come and the Raptors will be lifting the trophy at the end..............................

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10350

Posted: Jun. 9, 2019 - 10:44 AM ET #316

Quote Originally Posted by Prop_Source:

love the triple double take Claw, you get it.

Low turnovers is also something I value. Kawhi has a really low turnover rate over his career for a superstar with high usage

Yes TO's are very important. I am the only one I know of who includes TO's in my shooting efficiency ratings.

Other PR's count TO's with rebs as extra possesions, I don't think they are anywhere near the same. They are both different skills.

TO's don't make up for lack of rebounding as some PR's sites try to say.

TO's are the product of running your offense and trying to create a better shot for yourself or a teammate.

When LBJ throws a great pass that a teammate gets an easy layup or dunk that increase your shooting efficiency.

So why should a team OR PLAYER get the credit for a great pass that leads to a higher FG% but not get penalized when his pass is bad and he creates a TO' ?

When Kawhi tries to get to his spots and create a higher % shot, he needs to drive and penetrate the defense, if he can do that with fewer TO's that is strong play and increases his shooting efficiency.

But if a player drives and Turns it over not only is that the same result as missing a shot , but he never even got an attempt which if missed the team has the oppurtunity to get the off reb, TO's give no oppurtunity.

Kind of a double whammy, a missed shot and no oppurtunity for off board.

If a player had 6 TO's, just think even if he missed all 6 shots they likely could gotten at least 1 or 2 off rebs.

A player like Kawhi with few TO's is big, game 4 his shooting efficiency including his 0 TO's was an insane 67%.

Means everytime he took a shot be it a 2 pt, 3 pt or FT he shot the same thing as 67% on a 2 pt shoot attempt.

He was also 9 of 9 from the line, he not only got there often he was 100% when he did.

Getting there often is the key, being 100 % but on only 2 of 2 is not much help for your team.

But shooting effectively as Kawhi did with 0 TO's increases his effectiveness. Hehadd 11 misses of 22 shot attempts from the field, how many off rebs did team get out of those 11 misses ? If he had 4 or 5 TO's they would never had any oppurtunity to get.