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NBA PLAYOFFS......................................................2019

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Posted: #276
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

Claw,
I hope you have your opinion on game 5.
Now bucks has regressed the only direction would be up??
Best write in da forum hands dowb claw. Whether it is NBA or NFL 
But i do agree GS is playing much without durant. I always believed GS was better without durant. Curry and klay can shoot the balll more and spread the defence and draymond and bench has more chance too. 


....... thanks for the kind words....................I saw on ESPN that Curry scored the most points in NBA history in a 4 game sweep.............Wow the guy is incredible.

Maybe they are better without Durant , the problem is we don't have enough games to accurately measure their true value.

I wouldn't read to much into a 4 game sweep of a very, very average playoff team like the Blazers who were without one of their best players..

They were average playoff team with him, they got very fortunate to make the conference finals playing other weak teams.

No way Blazers are any kind of measuring stick  for an elite team like The Warriors or Bucks or any elite team.

all the Power Ratings and key indicators like FG % margin  , shooting efficiency supports this belief.
 
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Posted: #277

thumbs_up

FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
 
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Posted: #278

The Bucks are eliminated yet, BUT, sorry to report Bucks fans...

 

The winner of game 5 goes on to win the series 82% of the time. The Bucks have a less than one in five chance of advancing to the Finals.

 
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Posted: #279

Quote Originally Posted by capuchaboy:

The Bucks are eliminated yet, BUT, sorry to report Bucks fans...   The winner of game 5 goes on to win the series 82% of the time. The Bucks have a less than one in five chance of advancing to the Finals.

 

The Bucks are NOT eliminated yet...

 
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Posted: #280

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

Claw,I hope you have your opinion on game 5.Now bucks has regressed the only direction would be up??Best write in da forum hands dowb claw. Whether it is NBA or NFL But i do agree GS is playing much without durant. I always believed GS was better without durant. Curry and klay can shoot the balll more and spread the defence and draymond and bench has more chance too. 
....... thanks for the kind words....................I saw on ESPN that Curry scored the most points in NBA history in a 4 game sweep.............Wow the guy is incredible.Maybe they are better without Durant , the problem is we don't have enough games to accurately measure their true value.I wouldn't read to much into a 4 game sweep of a very, very average playoff team like the Blazers who were without one of their best players..They were average playoff team with him, they got very fortunate to make the conference finals playing other weak teams.No way Blazers are any kind of measuring stick  for an elite team like The Warriors or Bucks or any elite team.all the Power Ratings and key indicators like FG % margin  , shooting efficiency supports this belief.

IMO GSW are in a class of their own. GSW are a very good team with Curry, Klay, Green and the bench, but we can't deny KD makes them even better. If I had achoice GSW with or without KD, I'll take them with KD, hands down. Anyone will take 5 all stars over 4 all stars, the difference is GSW know haw to make it work with All Stars. It's a team mentality vs individual accolades. So I believe GSW are very hard to beat without KD but are unbeatable with KD. Add a healthy Cousons to this Superstars and you have a Super team. The bench might not be as good as in the past but the coach knows how to use their strength. Neither Bucks nor Toronto have a chance with a well rested Warriors team. Warriors could sweep, win in 5 or 6, but won't go to 7. 1st game will tell a lot about the series, stay tuned.

 
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Posted: #281
0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units


son of a gun, big tough loss for our Bucks....................
 
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Posted: #282
MY LINES ................................game 6 (sat)

Raptors -.74 over Bucks


we have a play on the Bucks if line stays at 2 or higher.

Bucks off 3 ATS losses , good spot for Bucks.

Raps winning game 5 , taking a 3-2 series lead, history shows us Raps should win the series 83% of the time. Since road team does not win game 7 very often, the road team if they are to win series normally will win in 6 games or less.

This points to Raps in game 6.

Now, we will get into a very big important spot, teams due regression then once they regress are off their 3rd ATS loss, does not have to be 3 straight, just the 3rd ATS loss while producing a losing ATS record, 0-3 , 1-3 or 2-3, ARE SINCE 2013..................................

1ST GAME ---9-4 ATS  .........................69% ATS 
2CD GAME --- 10-3 ATS........................77% ATS
3RD GAME --- 7-5 ATS .........................58% ATS

Bucks have not played well, shot poorly , 538 reported in final 5 minutes of past games Raptors got surprising amount of good luck in 50-50 situations, all indications that regression has occurred with the Bucks.

Remember the ole Las Vegas Adage..................no team is as good as it looks while winning nor are they as bad as they look while losing the truth lies somewhere inbetween.

This is what regression is all about, when one team gets most of the breaks they look much better then they are, 

Let's see if those breaks and SHOTS FALL DIFFERENTLY TONIGHT...........................



Bucks +2 (-115)  over Raptors --- 2.3 units

Bucks/Raps OVER 212.5 ---  2.2 UNITS
Bucks TT OVER 105 --- 1.1 UNITS



If the line stays 2 or higher we will add more units to our Bucks Play. 
 
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Posted: #283
Just broke-down Warriors playoff numbers, and this years team is not close to past 2 years Warriors teams.

The weakest Warriors team in both PRI and PRII in playoffs only  was in 2016 when they lost to Cavs.

2019 WARRIORS ARE A LITTLE BETTER then that team, but only slightly (.24) better in PRI and they are much worse in shooting efficiency margin this season.


Shooting efficiency margin seems to be most important come playoffs, we have another version of ratings based on giving far more credit to better team in SE margin.

this version is 8-2 calling series winner with at least 2 points better since 2000.

I looked into this after we had incredible success using playoff only in NFL, would still hopefully like to  breakdown some years back in 90's and 80's.

2018 Warriors were 16.16 better then Cavs last year.
2017 Warriors were 3.26 better then Cavs
2016 Warriors, Cavs were 5.44 better then Warriors
2015 Warriors, Cavs were 1.77 better, under 2 is only about 50%.  


When playoff only and regular season are on the same team has a very strong record and only about 50-50 when they differ.
 
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Posted: #284
Looking at Bucks and Raps stats to this point, without actually running all the numbers ,  roughly it looks like the Bucks if they come back and win series will be playing better then Warriors in playoffs , but not the Raps.

I can be wrong sometimes by just looking at them and not running exact numbers but for most part will be right more then not.
 
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Posted: #285
Line is drooping so we likely will sit tight with out plays tonight.
 
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Posted: #286

thanks claw

 
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Posted: #287
Our playoff version rating basically gives lots of extra weight to shooting efficiency then adds that to PR II IN PLAYOFFS OF COURSE.

PR II being more heavy balance and common denominators of past champs.

The best team since 2001 actually, not 2000 as I reported above.

1. 2017 Warriors 83.64
2. 2001 Lakers 75.31
3. 2016 Cavs 72.61
4. 4. 2013 Spurs 72.44
5. 2013 Heat 70.93
6. 2014 Spurs 68.75
7. 2014 Heat 68.47
8.  2018 Warriors 68.44


Wow, look at 2016 Cavs that beat Warriors, 3rd best team since 2001 in playoffs.

I was aware of this at the time but still called Warriors to win, but I didn't have alot of experience with this method, didn't pay attention enough to it and was not sure how to use it best.

But now that a good number of years have past since I first starting tracking the info and playing around with it I am definitely more confident with the info.

If we take this rating and add it to PRI in regular season it is spectacular.


2013 Spurs who almost beat the Heat, taking a 3-2 series lead but lost in 7.  Were slightly better but not better by more then 2 pts, under 2 is only about 50-50.

2014 Spurs slightly better again but this time they won easily but they were much better in regular season as Heat were to weak a rebounding team.


2001 Lakers were not elite team in regular season but exploded to the title with a very dominate playoffs losing only 1 game.

That might be 1 example of an experienced proven winner not playing well in regular season but still winning the title.

But they did up their play right away in playoffs something the Warriors have not done. Plus they did not play a strong team in the finals.

No comparison to how much better this Bucks team is then those 76ers  if they can get there.

Thing is ....... teams years ago won't compete with these ratings as the 3 pt shot, taking so many and shooting better and better over the years really increases shooting efficiency.

But it appears to be an excellent way to compare teams in a given year.


 
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Posted: #288
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Our playoff version rating basically gives lots of extra weight to shooting efficiency then adds that to PR II IN PLAYOFFS OF COURSE.

PR II being more heavy balance and common denominators of past champs.

The best team since 2001 actually, not 2000 as I reported above.

1. 2017 Warriors 83.64
2. 2001 Lakers 75.31
3. 2016 Cavs 72.61
4. 4. 2013 Spurs 72.44
5. 2013 Heat 70.93
6. 2014 Spurs 68.75
7. 2014 Heat 68.47
8.  2018 Warriors 68.44


Wow, look at 2016 Cavs that beat Warriors, 3rd best team since 2001 in playoffs.

I was aware of this at the time but still called Warriors to win, but I didn't have alot of experience with this method, didn't pay attention enough to it and was not sure how to use it best.

But now that a good number of years have past since I first starting tracking the info and playing around with it I am definitely more confident with the info.

If we take this rating and add it to PRI in regular season it is spectacular.


2013 Spurs who almost beat the Heat, taking a 3-2 series lead but lost in 7.  Were slightly better but not better by more then 2 pts, under 2 is only about 50-50.

2014 Spurs slightly better again but this time they won easily but they were much better in regular season as Heat were to weak a rebounding team.


2001 Lakers were not elite team in regular season but exploded to the title with a very dominate playoffs losing only 1 game.

That might be 1 example of an experienced proven winner not playing well in regular season but still winning the title.

But they did up their play right away in playoffs something the Warriors have not done. Plus they did not play a strong team in the finals.

No comparison to how much better this Bucks team is then those 76ers  if they can get there.

Thing is ....... teams years ago won't compete with these ratings as the 3 pt shot, taking so many and shooting better and better over the years really increases shooting efficiency.

But it appears to be an excellent way to compare teams in a given year.



For the love of god, Claw. I usually like your rankings/ratings/methods but when you completely ignore history, and look at these numbers in a vacuum, it makes me want to vomit! Are you freakin kidding me with the Cavs. The league handed them the title by suspending Draymond. But that is not all you are forgetting. Bogut got hurt in game 5! Kerr was experiencing the worst migraines a man can experience and lost his coaching mind! Curry was playing hurt! Harrison Barnes was having the worst series any player of his caliber probably ever had! And it still took a miracle block, by LBJ, and a three pointer by Irving to finish off the Warriors in 7. If you are actually going to claim that Cavs team was better than the Warriors, please go home and stop posting, forever!
 
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Posted: #289

all your science and numbers bro once again forget to measure the most important one...the same thing that Tom Brady didn't show at the combine...heart....no experience in closing games on Milw...Kawai Leonard, bro...Kawai Leonard...when you clearly have a champion clutch player on one side at home...and inexperience on the other...WHAT IS THAT WORTH????????

 
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Posted: #290
0/3 Regression strikes again 
 
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Posted: #291

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Our playoff version rating basically gives lots of extra weight to shooting efficiency then adds that to PR II IN PLAYOFFS OF COURSE.PR II being more heavy balance and common denominators of past champs.The best team since 2001 actually, not 2000 as I reported above.1. 2017 Warriors 83.642. 2001 Lakers 75.313. 2016 Cavs 72.614. 4. 2013 Spurs 72.445. 2013 Heat 70.936. 2014 Spurs 68.757. 2014 Heat 68.478.  2018 Warriors 68.44Wow, look at 2016 Cavs that beat Warriors, 3rd best team since 2001 in playoffs.I was aware of this at the time but still called Warriors to win, but I didn't have alot of experience with this method, didn't pay attention enough to it and was not sure how to use it best.But now that a good number of years have past since I first starting tracking the info and playing around with it I am definitely more confident with the info.If we take this rating and add it to PRI in regular season it is spectacular.2013 Spurs who almost beat the Heat, taking a 3-2 series lead but lost in 7.  Were slightly better but not better by more then 2 pts, under 2 is only about 50-50.2014 Spurs slightly better again but this time they won easily but they were much better in regular season as Heat were to weak a rebounding team.2001 Lakers were not elite team in regular season but exploded to the title with a very dominate playoffs losing only 1 game.That might be 1 example of an experienced proven winner not playing well in regular season but still winning the title.But they did up their play right away in playoffs something the Warriors have not done. Plus they did not play a strong team in the finals.No comparison to how much better this Bucks team is then those 76ers  if they can get there.Thing is ....... teams years ago won't compete with these ratings as the 3 pt shot, taking so many and shooting better and better over the years really increases shooting efficiency.But it appears to be an excellent way to compare teams in a given year.

 

seriously Claw?confused

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #292

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Our playoff version rating basically gives lots of extra weight to shooting efficiency then adds that to PR II IN PLAYOFFS OF COURSE.PR II being more heavy balance and common denominators of past champs.The best team since 2001 actually, not 2000 as I reported above.1. 2017 Warriors 83.642. 2001 Lakers 75.313. 2016 Cavs 72.614. 4. 2013 Spurs 72.445. 2013 Heat 70.936. 2014 Spurs 68.757. 2014 Heat 68.478.  2018 Warriors 68.44Wow, look at 2016 Cavs that beat Warriors, 3rd best team since 2001 in playoffs.I was aware of this at the time but still called Warriors to win, but I didn't have alot of experience with this method, didn't pay attention enough to it and was not sure how to use it best.But now that a good number of years have past since I first starting tracking the info and playing around with it I am definitely more confident with the info.If we take this rating and add it to PRI in regular season it is spectacular.2013 Spurs who almost beat the Heat, taking a 3-2 series lead but lost in 7.  Were slightly better but not better by more then 2 pts, under 2 is only about 50-50.2014 Spurs slightly better again but this time they won easily but they were much better in regular season as Heat were to weak a rebounding team.2001 Lakers were not elite team in regular season but exploded to the title with a very dominate playoffs losing only 1 game.That might be 1 example of an experienced proven winner not playing well in regular season but still winning the title.But they did up their play right away in playoffs something the Warriors have not done. Plus they did not play a strong team in the finals.No comparison to how much better this Bucks team is then those 76ers  if they can get there.Thing is ....... teams years ago won't compete with these ratings as the 3 pt shot, taking so many and shooting better and better over the years really increases shooting efficiency.But it appears to be an excellent way to compare teams in a given year.
For the love of god, Claw. I usually like your rankings/ratings/methods but when you completely ignore history, and look at these numbers in a vacuum, it makes me want to vomit! Are you freakin kidding me with the Cavs. The league handed them the title by suspending Draymond. But that is not all you are forgetting. Bogut got hurt in game 5! Kerr was experiencing the worst migraines a man can experience and lost his coaching mind! Curry was playing hurt! Harrison Barnes was having the worst series any player of his caliber probably ever had! And it still took a miracle block, by LBJ, and a three pointer by Irving to finish off the Warriors in 7. If you are actually going to claim that Cavs team was better than the Warriors, please go home and stop posting, forever!

begginerboy is absolutely right. 

MOREOVER, who can forget the 2013 Finals when the Spurs were up 3-2 and ahead in game 6 by FIVE points with 28 seconds to play....thanks to horrendous officiating, the Heat were ultimately handed a championship they did not deserve.

 
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Posted: #293
game --- 0-1 ATS, lost 2.3 units
totals 0-2 ATS lost 3.3 units


Brutal, very tough loss by our Bucks. Bucks could not get it done, 

Van Fleet was insane going 7 of 9 and 4 of 5 on 3's in games 5 and 6,  both games were winnable, at one point towards end of 3rd quarter game 6 when Bucks up 14 one site reported Bucks had an 92.7 % chance to win the game. 

And of course the Bucks up 2-0 had a 93% chance to win series, our Bucks were right there looking very good with a great shot to get it done.

That's now 19 of 24 (79%) of our no. 1 ranked team has made the championship in their sport, hey , we can't win them all and I suppose a case can be made we would at some point be due a regression as we were a incredible  17 of 19 (89.5%) at one point. 

We failed in 3 of our past 4 , with Bears in NFL and Albany in Arena league and now the Bucks  winning with Seattle in WNBA. 

We'll turn the corner after this regression to a more sustainable level and get back on track.


I tip my hat to Raptors defense, they shut-down  the Bucks in the 4th at times where Bucks had a  very difficult to  get any   shot off and when they did they were rushed and way out of sync.  Those shots missed badly, not even close.

Be interesting if Raps can do anything near like that to Warriors when they need to.

 
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Posted: #294
2019 NBA FINALS.............................................


Power Ratings I..............

Warriors 7.72   ..............Warriors by 1.67
Raptors 6.05

teams better by 1.25 or more have won series 23-6 (79.3%) since 1980


Power Ratings II....................

Warriors 53.67............Warriors by .83
Raptors 52.84

teams better by .75 or more have won series 26-6 (81.25%) since 1980


MY LINES....................................game 1 (thurs)

Raptors -2.33 over Warriors



 
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Posted: #295
PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATINGS....................................

in both PR I & II Warriors are much, much better then Raps. By over 3 pts in one and almost 3 pts in the other.

But the PR seems to work the best is our playoff version which gives extra weight to shooting efficiency and then adds that to playoffs PR II ...........................

Warriors 64.52................Warriors by 1.54
Raptors 62.98 

Raps were better then Warriors in SE BY .53 BUT wARRIORS WAY BETTER IN PR II in playoffs where Raps were to weak a rebounding team which they were borderline weak rebs in regular season.

TEAMS under 2 are about 50-50 winning the series , however, teams under 2 the better regular season team has won 6 of 6 in those series when both PR's were over the minimums which is the case here with Warriors.


We can also add in PR I from regular season and that points to Warriors by 3.21, haven't updated it , but at last count this version is 7-0 with a 2.5 pt diff.

And we get also create a line using this version which seems to work fairly well...........................

Raptors -.79 over Warriors


about right on the actual line.
 
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Posted: #296
Raps are off 4 ATS wins , Warriors off 1 ATS loss.

Not a good spot for Raps, much better spot for Warriors here.

Plus the better rebounding team almost always covers either game 1 or game 2 which is the Warriors.

With Durant out we just don't know how good this Warriors team is, we know they are damn good without him, we know they won titles without him, but we can not put an accurate line out and odds to win the series without more games without him.

To risky to make a call, but all the info clearly points to Warriors winning the title once again.

If we had something to hang our hat on to  back the Raps we would but don't see it here.

Can't see backing Warriors at a high price without Durant.
 
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Posted: #297

I feel like the difference in rebounding is negligible also Bucks were the better rebounding team and Toronto managed. Do you adjust for home court in the playoffs should add more for that also how much weighted regular season? Toronto missed Leonard & Lowry I’m a quarter of their games and also added Gasol late.

Its gonna be hilarious when the Raptors are up 3-1 and then Durant comes back and they lose in 7

 
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Posted: #298

Draymond is the heartbeat of that team and i see Toronto containing him a lot better than Portland or Houston

 
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Posted: #299
MY LINES regular season........................................game 2 (sun)

in finals we give 2 pts to team down by 1 game

Raptors -.33 over Warriors

92-2018.........................................with a 1.5 pt diff to closing line

10-4 ATS

GAME 2's in the finals seem to be the better play for my lines

GOOD SPOT FOR WARRIORS OFF ATS losses , very bad spot for Raps off 5 ATS wins.

Very interesting game as being reported Durant may return game 3. If that is the case Raps know they need this game big-time and Warriors know if they can win and  tie the series and Durant returns game 3 back at home  things would look very, very good for Warriors 3-peating.


 
 
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Posted: #300
PLAYOFF VERSION OF MY LINES.................................

Warriors -1.21 over Raptors

Both PR's point to Warriors game 2.

However, without Durant just to tough to judge this Warriors team, we really don't know their true value.

We've been saying 2cd half of season this is not the same Warriors team as the prior 4 years, but we'll side with the info and the Warriors covering tonight.

LEAN ........Warriors +2 over Raptors.

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