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NBA PLAYOFFS......................................................2019

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Posted: #251
Raptors are not in the same class as Bucks and Warriors. They are only slightly better than the Blazers. That being said, raptors should win at least 1 game, so it's very reasonable to make a play on raptors and double up on game 4 if they don't hit tonight. 

Warriors 1A
Bucks 1B
Raptors 1.5 
Blazers 2




 
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Posted: #252

an_clap

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Posted: #253

The Raptor win over the Bucks in game 3 showed us something to keep in the back of our minds going forward.

A tie score in the last two minutes of a regular season contest produces a certain level of anxiety and nervousness, to be sure. During the Conference Finals or NBA Finals, however, that anxiety number is multiplied by several factors. 

The Bucks demonstrated this evening that they will not be as ready as the Ws in the final seconds of a one or two possession game. THERE WAS A LOT OF FEAR IN THE DEER tonight.  Giannis missed critical free throws and there were several DEER CAUGHT IN HEADLIGHTS moments.

It is doubtful the ADVANCE METRICS has a column for inexperience and fear in the closing moments of a high-stakes game. 

new_jaw_drop 

 
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Posted: #254

@softballmaniac

peace_5

 
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Posted: #255

Claw is a sharp dude!    moneybag

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Posted: #256
Thanks for all the kind words guys, much appreciated ........................
 
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Posted: #257
Games --- 1-0 ATS , won 4 units
totals --- 0-2, lost 2.2 units

boy oh boy, it took about half way through  2cd OT to hit the OVER, geez louise . 
 
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Posted: #258
MYLINES.......................................game 4 (mon)


Blazers -.39 over Warriors

close-out games we don't use my lines.

An Elite team in a close-out game is the right play, but close-out games in game 4 are not the best spots.

Warriors 1-1 ATS thus far in 1st close-out games.


Warriors since Durant joined the team in 2016 in games with Curry but not Durant are 33-4 over 82 games that is 73.1 win team, wow.

Warriors with Durant but not Curry , 28-18 or a 49 win team, saw that posted on CBS Sports.

Warriors in playoffs with Durant and Curry  4-7 ATS , with Curry only 3-1 ATS.


We'll pass on the game
 
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Posted: #259
Quote Originally Posted by capuchaboy:

The Raptor win over the Bucks in game 3 showed us something to keep in the back of our minds going forward.

A tie score in the last two minutes of a regular season contest produces a certain level of anxiety and nervousness, to be sure. During the Conference Finals or NBA Finals, however, that anxiety number is multiplied by several factors. 

The Bucks demonstrated this evening that they will not be as ready as the Ws in the final seconds of a one or two possession game. THERE WAS A LOT OF FEAR IN THE DEER tonight.  Giannis missed critical free throws and there were several DEER CAUGHT IN HEADLIGHTS moments.

It is doubtful the ADVANCE METRICS has a column for inexperience and fear in the closing moments of a high-stakes game. 

new_jaw_drop 


Correct! Great post. Who wants the ball.....has a lot to say on who wins the championship and Middleton shone for the Bucks far brighter than Giannis and Kawhi was the real star pulling the train in that tense game. Watch for Siakam to also rise from his OT key FTs after coughing it up in regulation. He has no fear usually but it crept in in the last minute of regulation. Curry and D. Green, KD, LeBron and Kawhi are kings of these moments with Harden close behind but as we have found out over the past 2 yrs, he spits the bit a little in these moments not getting past the Warriors.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
 
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Posted: #260

[/Quote]Correct! Great post. Who wants the ball.....has a lot to say on who wins the championship and Middleton shone for the Bucks far brighter than Giannis and Kawhi was the real star pulling the train in that tense game. Watch for Siakam to also rise from his OT key FTs after coughing it up in regulation. He has no fear usually but it crept in in the last minute of regulation. Curry and D. Green, KD, LeBron and Kawhi are kings of these moments with Harden close behind but as we have found out over the past 2 yrs, he spits the bit a little in these moments not getting past the Warriors.[/Quote]

 

"...spits the bit..."

Great phrase.  Learned that one as a kid at the race track.

 
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Posted: #261
Yep....you should have seen the crowd around me last year at Bellagio racetrack side of the room betting my horses on the home track in Toronto.....it was the only thing saving my bankroll vs the crappy NCAAB upsets that were rolling in from 2nd half line collapses that whole week

Family  trained-raised standardbred horses and I used to hear that expression in the 70's and 80's  watching track and field too....haha...was said for long distance runners who went too fast or were a rabbit.


Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
 
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Posted: #262
MY LINES................................game 4 (tues)

Raps -.74 over Bucks


We have a play on my lines, plays thus far are 1-1 ATS this round , since we rarely finish with a losing record this round with my lines and teams regress losing at least 2 ATS games within a 3 game span and Bucks did not lose 2 of 3 VS Celtics in round 2 they certainly should here, plus they are playing another Elite team  and that was not the Celtics.

Add it all up and we have a play on Raps.


Raptors +3 (-115) over Bucks --- 2.3 units to win 2 units


the best case for us would be for Bucks to win SU by 1 or 2 pts and we get the ATS win and OUR Bucks get 1 game closer to finals.
 
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Posted: #263
GAME 1 NBA Finals............................................................

Bucks -1.5 over Warriors --- 2.2 units


making an early play here.
 
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Posted: #264
Wouldn't read alot into Warriors 4-0 sweep of Blazers.Warriors dominating that series was to be expected.

Blazers not in the same class as the other 3 teams remaining when we look at key indicators.

Top 3 teams in PT Margin, Bucks, Warriors, Raps, Blazers well back.

Top 3 teams in FG % Margin, Warriors, Bucks, Raps, Blazers 10th, Nuggets 11th

Top 3 teams in shooting efficiency when we add 2 pt, 3 pt, FT, TO , Bucks, Warriors, Raps, Blazers 11th , Nuggets 12th.

We can easily see Blazers are not in those other 3 teams class, teams playing like the Blazers don't go on to win titles and rarely ever make the finals.

Blazers had the very good fortune to play one of the weakest no.2 seeded teams since 1980 in the Nuggets and it still took them 7 games to beat that weak team.

If not for that very weak no. 2 seed team being there in 2cd round, Blazers likely would have been home by now.

If Blazers had their injuried player who is a good solid scorer and very good rebounder maybe they could of been more competitive

This 4-0 sweep combined with Bucks likely losing 2 games to Raps sets up the Bucks very nice in Finals. .
 
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Posted: #265
Think about this, Bucks 8-2 ATS (80%) if you just blindly backed them every game.

We faded this  80% winning team 4 games and won units in 3 of the 4 games or 75%.

That folks is the power of regression. Fading an 80% ATS winner and winning in 75% of our games doing such.

Had you just layed off the Bucks in those 4 games you'd be 6-0 ATS on the Bucks.

But blindly backing them you went 2-2 ATS and 1-3 ATS 1st halves in those regression games.

In the process we won 3 dogs on the ML OF 4 PLAYED, again 75% including a very nice +400 ML win.

We certainly did much better then any one blindly backing a 80% ATS winner did in those 4 games.


But go figure someone will come along and point-out our 1 game of regression losses while completely ignoring our 3 regression game winners including winning 75 % on dogs on the ML.


That guys is complete over-reaction to 1 game, and someone thinking regression needs to win 100% or it is worthless, nothing you will do is going to win 100%, not ever.

Or someone just looking for something negative to say because they do not understand regression so therefore it does not exist. So let's prove it does not exist by pointing out every single loss but ignoring all the wins we pick-up using regression.


Our plays fading an 80% ATS winner shows the power of regression....................................

And what goes down, must go back up, if we hit the right spot with the Bucks falling in regression, when the masses least expect it we'll be coming back in on Bucks with out biggest play of the playoffs .

Let's be patient and wait for the right spot and hope it comes up. Maybe game 1 of finals, now that'd be super sweet..................

 
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Posted: #266
 
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Posted: #267
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

GAME 1 NBA Finals............................................................

Bucks -1.5 over Warriors --- 2.2 units


making an early play here.

I don't get it. If you are betting on the Rators to win tonight then you are actually betting that the Warriors/Bucks line remains the same and/or goes down. The more the Bucks lose, the more public perception will be against them (even as the hype machine hypes the Warriors). That line only goes up if the Bucks dominate/win the next two, which you are betting against. 
 
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Posted: #268

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

GAME 1 NBA Finals............................................................Bucks -1.5 over Warriors --- 2.2 unitsmaking an early play here.
I don't get it. If you are betting on the Rators to win tonight then you are actually betting that the Warriors/Bucks line remains the same and/or goes down. The more the Bucks lose, the more public perception will be against them (even as the hype machine hypes the Warriors). That line only goes up if the Bucks dominate/win the next two, which you are betting against.

He said " best case for us bucks win by 1 or 2 and we win the spread" he's not playing for the Raps to win, he's playing for the Raps to cover.

I think the Bucks wrap it up in 5 or 6 and lose 1 of the 1st 2 at home. Given Bucks record in the playoffs of each series, they struggled GM1. With GSW resting more than the Bucks, I think GSW will SU win GM1. 

 
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Posted: #269
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


I don't get it. If you are betting on the Rators to win tonight then you are actually betting that the Warriors/Bucks line remains the same and/or goes down. The more the Bucks lose, the more public perception will be against them (even as the hype machine hypes the Warriors). That line only goes up if the Bucks dominate/win the next two, which you are betting against. 

ProKaeper said it well, but I'll add, I also could have been wrong on Raps game 4, you should  never make plays looking forward with the idea you won't ever be wrong on this game.

Even with an 18 point blow-out win the line is still Bucks -1, and it took an 18 pt blow-out win to get that extra half a pt,  as though we knew that would happen.

What we do here is base our plays on info we already know to be true, we do not know who wins or loses game 4. Why would you base any future play on info you don't know the answer  to ?

My Line on game 1 .......Bucks -5.59 over Warriors, this much we know to be true, getting over 4 extra points is a steal of a line.

High probability play for the Bucks , regardless of game 4 results.
 
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Posted: #270
games --- 1-0 ATS, won 2 units

my lines now 2-1 ATS in this round, i think just once since 2007 we finished with a small losing record.

unfortunately we did miss a great spot in game 4, i miss things every year with games coming everyday and can be at times tough to keep up with all the info. i have missed a few other things as well this year we could be doing a little better but hey we're doing well enough , thankfully.

If we look the post of spots for my lines, teams off a SU & ATS win after trailing by 2 games and a play on my lines was 7-0 ATS since 2007, has not lost yet, and won again last night.

Doesn't come up very often but when it does, wow, great spot. 
 
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Posted: #271
Was down at local book last night, always interesting when you hear others talking about the game. Guys were quite a bit talking about the Bucks being 22-1 off a loss.

One guy says he doesn't know who'll win series but he has to take Bucks in game 4 because of the 22-1 record.

I always like to say.....info by itself is useless, using the info properly gives it value.

how many people who bet on that info knew the record of that info in the playoffs ?

has that info produced a winning or losing ATS record come playoff time ?

and especially when the team is playing one of the better teams in the league, not a 1st round weak team ?

that info is useless unless you know the answer to those questions.

everybody knows that info, so does the book, and the book knows you know that info so what's A BOOK TO DO ?  They open game 3 at Raps -2.5 but then open game 4 Raps +2.5, that is a whopping 5 extra points you need to lay to back that info,  losing proposition in the long run laying 5 extra points, out the window goes all the value that info carried with it. 

I remember past year that same info being brought up and losing in playoffs to one of better Elite teams , those teams very good in key indicators.

I'll try to look that up if I can find a list of  teams who had strong records off a loss in regular season.

sometimes you'll find that people are betting opposite of what produces a winning record over time and this info just might be an example.

every year I try to add another possible ANGLE to our info, sometimes they don't come up very often but when they do we'll be far better informed then the masses who follow the media dishing out this kind of info.
 
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Posted: #272

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

I don't get it. If you are betting on the Rators to win tonight then you are actually betting that the Warriors/Bucks line remains the same and/or goes down. The more the Bucks lose, the more public perception will be against them (even as the hype machine hypes the Warriors). That line only goes up if the Bucks dominate/win the next two, which you are betting against. 
ProKaeper said it well, but I'll add, I also could have been wrong on Raps game 4, you should  never make plays looking forward with the idea you won't ever be wrong on this game.Even with an 18 point blow-out win the line is still Bucks -1, and it took an 18 pt blow-out win to get that extra half a pt,  as though we knew that would happen.What we do here is base our plays on info we already know to be true, we do not know who wins or loses game 4. Why would you base any future play on info you don't know the answer  to ?My Line on game 1 .......Bucks -5.59 over Warriors, this much we know to be true, getting over 4 extra points is a steal of a line.High probability play for the Bucks , regardless of game 4 results.

 

Hi claw

I think ur line on GM1 is inflated a bit. Does ur system factor in the 5 straight wins for GSW without Durant? I think GSW are in a class of their own and the rest of the league comes below. Remember Bucks played in the east and it was easy for them to get that record. We've seen that they've struggled in the past 2 games on the road. If GSW wins 1 of the 1st 2 @ Bucks, GSW will win the finals in 5 on Bucks court. GSW are just too much to handle especially if KD and Cousins are back. I see GM1 flipping to GSW being favored or pick'em when Bucks/Tor series ends.

 
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Posted: #273
Claw,
I hope you have your opinion on game 5.
Now bucks has regressed the only direction would be up??
Best write in da forum hands dowb claw. Whether it is NBA or NFL 
But i do agree GS is playing much without durant. I always believed GS was better without durant. Curry and klay can shoot the balll more and spread the defence and draymond and bench has more chance too. 
 
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Posted: #274
Quote Originally Posted by ProKaeper:

ProKaeper said it well, but I'll add, I also could have been wrong on Raps game 4, you should  never make plays looking forward with the idea you won't ever be wrong on this game.Even with an 18 point blow-out win the line is still Bucks -1, and it took an 18 pt blow-out win to get that extra half a pt,  as though we knew that would happen.What we do here is base our plays on info we already know to be true, we do not know who wins or loses game 4. Why would you base any future play on info you don't know the answer  to ?My Line on game 1 .......Bucks -5.59 over Warriors, this much we know to be true, getting over 4 extra points is a steal of a line.High probability play for the Bucks , regardless of game 4 results.

 

Hi claw

I think ur line on GM1 is inflated a bit. Does ur system factor in the 5 straight wins for GSW without Durant? I think GSW are in a class of their own and the rest of the league comes below. Remember Bucks played in the east and it was easy for them to get that record. We've seen that they've struggled in the past 2 games on the road. If GSW wins 1 of the 1st 2 @ Bucks, GSW will win the finals in 5 on Bucks court. GSW are just too much to handle especially if KD and Cousins are back. I see GM1 flipping to GSW being favored or pick'em when Bucks/Tor series ends.



I do agree and I talked about this quite a bit in mid season report thread when we made our 1st futures play on Bucks. Warriors may not be playing as hard as then can play, but regardless when we look back at history other 3 peat teams were all better in our PR's then their opps.

And this Bucks team ranks much better then any team the Warriors played to make 4 straight finals and win 3 of them, so Warriors have never been in a series VS a team this good.

Bucks are amoung the  best teams since 1980. They are the best team in 2 pt FG%  margin .

I also agree Warriors without Durant may be a different rating but we can not reach any kind of conclusion off 1 ...4 game series. Regular season ratings are more predictable then playoff ratings but Bucks are better in both as of right now , and when a team is better in both it wins at incredible high rate.

The best team is going to win and that'd be the Bucks.

Interesting how they react when they get hit hard in the mouth as they almost certainly will at some point in that series.

VERY, VERY DOUBTFUL BUCKS LOSE IN 5 games OR LESS, SLIM CHANCE TO NONE.

Bucks have a great shot to take a 2-0 series lead and I think they will and the masses of people will think Warriors will win at least 1 game.


 
 
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Posted: #275
MY LINES...................................game 5 (thurs)

Bucks -7.26 over Raptors


Much better spot for Bucks here off 2 ATS & SU  losses. The line seems to be about right, but does seem to be dropping , we can wait-out the line if it hits 6 we have a good solid play  on Bucks.

We'll make a small play on Bucks since I did find it at 6.5  (-105) 



Bucks - 6 (-115)  over Raps --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit 

if line drops to 6 we add to our play.


Bucks should win series in 6 games.  If Bucks win SU tonight but fail to cover and win series in 6 , that sets up a really great spot on Bucks game 1 of finals, we'll add to our game 1 play if Bucks win SU but fail to cover.




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