NBA Prop picks 12-16

21-8 in December

Grabbed these this morning

Bojan Bogdanovic O 21.5 Points (-115) - For whatever reason SF's score a lot of points vs. SAC.  IMO, when people think of Bogey they think of him as just a 3pt shooter, but he's been the top scorer with Cade Cunningham out and has really leaned on creating looks inside the arc.  I took Tobias Harris vs. SAC the other night because Harris gets a lot done inside the arc.  SAC gives up over 62 PPG from 2-point FG's alone which is the 4th most in NBA.  I expect to see a lot of pump-fakes and mid-range jumpers from Bogey. Note - Jalen Duren props not available yet.  De'Aaron Fox looks to have gotten back to form vs. Toronto and Detroit is one of the worse teams defending PG's.  He had an awful 7-8 game stretch where he was hurt and faced good defenses along with some blowouts limiting his minutes/numbers...i might play him here, but will confirm later.

Gary Trent Jr. O 2.5 3PT's (+105) - Not positive how these teams will match-up and who will start for BKN, but with the size and length of TOR interior players, it's possible Trent will have more space than normal to get his 3PT shots off and could draw the smallest weakest defenders BKN has to offer (Joe Harris, Seth Curry).  BKN gives up the most 3PT's per game to SG's in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic O 37.5 Pts+Rbnd (-120) - Only fear here is Jokic getting into foul trouble deal with AD's post moves.  If he stays clean then this is a dream matchup.  Lakers give up the 3rd most RPG to opposing Centers (7th most Off. Rbnd's = Jokic tip-in's)  Lakers give up 7th most Paint Points and 3rd most PPG from 2pt FG's.  Jokic has gone over this total in 4 of last 5 vs. AD

that's it for now, will have more later on....

Been waiting on Okongwu rebound prop and books got it at 10.5 (-135) was hoping it'd be 9.5.....i don't feel as strongly about him as Duren, but he is a good rebounder against a bad shooting/rebounding team

@BigMick87

 Looking at fox as well...23.5 points is line for me...waiting on Huerter status...they been rolling 4 deep at guard which cut into fox playing time ..huerter out last game got fox 40 mins

Looking at Lillard again 28.5 points and potentially SGA 30.5 points....both play tomorrow is one thing....Lillard kinda bad numbers vs mavs...not sure who normally guards him...

Potentially locking in Harden assists but worried about a blowout 

Do mavs allow a lot of points to PGs?? Didnt find that website yet been busy working

Pretty sure minne allow lot of points to PGs...sga  has good numbers vs them in 3 games this year

GL tonight

@BigMick87

 And looking at ad/jokic as well but last game they played both held each other in check some what ...think jokic had 23 and 15 and ad had 23 and 12

Adding:

Onyeka Okongwu O 10.5 Rebounds (-118) - fanduel had a price i could stomach.  It's up to -145 on some books and for good reason.  Okongwu is a young pogo-stick and all-around solid defensive player.  I would have liked a lower total, but it's the Hornets.  Duren had 16 boards in regulation vs. CHA, so i feel pretty comfortable in Double-O to get around 12-13

@dubz4dummyz

 Mavs allow the 11th least PPG to PG's.  Some other number are not favorable to Dame either, but he's on a heater.  That's the thing with the Mavs is they can send any 2-3 of Dinwiddie,Hardaway,Finney-Smith, Ntilikina, Bullock out on the floor and have switchability against small PG's like Dame.  Mavs defend the 3-ball pretty well

I've thought about SGA, my issue is that Minny gives up a large majority of their points from 3PT's and SGA isn't a volume 3PT shooter.  Minny gives up the 4th least 2PT's in NBA.  However, Minnesota opponents average 25 Free Throw Attempts per game which is SGA's bread n butter, that ranks 7th highest in the league.

Jokic been hot past 2 games, hoping he stays that way against a weak Laker interior.  For Jokic to get a triple-double is only like +270 which is low even for him

@BigMick87

 Ya I tend to like star vs star theory...that dame will wanna elevate his game vs league leading scorer....but ya I dunno gut telling me ride thr streak. Numbers saying lay off...plus he plays tomorro  as well...but so do mavs...bit if one team gets big lead the other might pack it in and save it for tomorrow's game

Think I gonna do sga ....gonna check refs...wish he was on a little more of a heater tho

GL on jokic 

@BigMick87

 Hoping my book puts up okongwu

2 of the lowest fouls called per game refs in the league in the minne/okc game....making me hesistant

I'm not touching that Sixers game tonight

good info here, think im laying off SGA

@BigMick87

 Dope ! You're always on point with your props. Lets get it !

Adding:

De'Aaron Fox O 29.5 Pts+Asst (-113) - i noted in post #1 that i liked Fox tonight and i'm pulling the trigger on it.  DET has been getting dominated by PG's and Fox may be beyond the funk he was in.

DeMar DeRozan O 26.5 Points (-108) - Derozan came alive after a slow start vs. NYK the other night to finish with 32.  Derozan is over this number in 4 straight and NYK gives up the 4th most PPG to SF's.  I mentioned possibly playing DeMar in my Vucevic play (which failed) the other night.  I am playing the Vucevic 3's prop again-parlayed with RJ Barrett O 1.5 3PT (+288) <---- not an official play, only keeping record of straight prop picks

Kyrie Irving O 23.5 Points (-120) - Gone over this line in 12 of 20 this season and has faced TOR 3 times this season going for 30,29,27. BKN doesn't exactly have a Paint scorer, but they have plenty of size in their front-court that TOR will be busy with leaving Trent and FVV to deal with Kyrie

7 is enough for one night, but may have more

@L3onedust

Adding:

Russell Westbrook O 12.5 Rbnd+Asst (+102) - Has hit the over on this number in 6 of last 7.  Denver allows the 3rd most APG to PG's.  Westbrook has always been one of the biggest stat person in NBA history. 

@BigMick87

 On Fox over 23.5 points as well...Hopefully raps game got him his confidence back

@BigMick87

 Still debating sga....he should go over 

i took Duren O 9.5 Rebounds live...doesn't count towards record, but if anyone wants to follow go ahead.  I checked like 15 minutes before the game and none of his props were available

@dubz4dummyz

@dubz4dummyz

 don't let me hold you back from taking him, there's a few prop bettors i follow on twitter and they're all taking the Over on SGA

Gary Trent is a no-go

strike from the record

Adding:

Naz Reid O 9.5 Rebounds (-115) - Kid is a beast, when he gets minutes, he produces.  OKC one of the worst rebounding and shooting teams in NBA

Jalen Duren just turned 19 and looks like a man amongst boys rebounding

10 rebounds in first half

should have taken Naz Reid Pts+Rbnd....he's getting to the rim, but missed shots just are not bouncing his way, when ever he does get his hands on one the whistle blows

Fox

Is Bogdanovic depressed or something??? guy is moping around the court, looks like he's going through heroin withdrawl, pale and sweaty.  You got 6 min to score 5 points you dummy!

I bet on the wrong Bogey

Bogey gets over the hump barely

Okongwu   foul trouble early, then blowout didn't help

Kyrie

DeRozan Bulls are pathetic