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NBA Totals - Thursday 3-8-12

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Posted: #26
Good call on that, Smash, looks like it's going to continue to nose dive. Glad you got it in so early. Unfortunately it was never in the cards for me.
 
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Posted: #27
What a deal, guys! Better hop on this quickly. I've got a good feeling about this guy.

/sarcasm
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:

A bit off topic, but does anyone have suggestions for intelligent people on the NCAA board? I know nothing about college basketball and am looking to get some insight and get caught up in March Madness.

I was thinking that you would be a natural for CBB totals but at this time of year everything is skewed lower as there is much more defense/slowdown in tournys and almost always neutral site. Just 1 point, I've watched/bet BigEast tourny for MANY years and played @ MadisonSqGarden which is NYK home court, the baskets are "tighter" and the sightlines are distracting and the emp. on Defense makes for favoring Unders. It might be a little late to work up a model for CBB, I've just found CBB totals to be even more predictive then NBA. GL

 
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Posted: #29
Line moved to 192. For dallas
 
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Posted: #30
michal- you keep posting this s%#& and you will be banned.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Squash:

Line moved to 192. For dallas


Naturally.
 
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Posted: #32
with u on dal/phx under. lets do this
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by sabermaths:

with u on dal/phx under. lets do this


Hope you got it at a better number than I did. GL to us.


 
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Posted: #34
I think Chicago goes over but Dal/Pho under looks good. About 82% of the public is on the over in that game.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by emiwark:

I think Chicago goes over but Dal/Pho under looks good. About 82% of the public is on the over in that game.


I noticed that, too. My numbers leaned UNDER in Chicago when the line was at 184.5, but now it's just about down to what my system predicted the total to be at. GL tonight.
 
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Posted: #36
Phoenix Dallas line up to 192.5... i think it hits 193.5 maybe 194
 
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Posted: #37
Thanks for the Nw pick got dis$ Ilost my ass...If i woulda only looked at your name first
 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:



Naturally.

not surprised  happens all the time for some reason but more times than often it's worked out for us. (i got a small wager on the under 191.5 and i thought that was a good line lol) fml

relying on Kidd and Nash to keep this game slow like two old men playing at the YMCA.

 
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Posted: #39
2 old men @ the ymca LOL
 
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Posted: #40
Good Call! I'm glad they slowed way down in the 4th! Thank you Grant Hill for those two misses at the FT line! lol

Had the Under @ 191.5 



 
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Posted: #41

Case in point....rlawson's system when going against a heavily favored public side equals solid wagering.  perhaps heavily should be interpreted as 80% or more

 

Thanks Rlawson for posting your system numbers

 
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Posted: #42
Read your post early this morning .Rit on RL waited it out today and got it in at 192 . Woke up  just to see Grant hill brick those free throws. Now I'll go back to sleep peacefully. 

Thanks 
 
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Posted: #43
Congrats to all da winners in da house with da under!!! Good call buddy!!
 
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Posted: #44
FINAL PLAYS:

Phoenix vs. Dallas UNDER 190.5 (1 unit)

1-0, +1.0

Not going to lie - went to bed after the 3rd quarter chalking this one up as a loss. I'm watching the highlights now and even though I know the final score, I feel like my balls are dropping for the first time seeing the final 30 seconds. I wait for a 6+ point differential between my line and the actual line before considering any game a play. My line for this game was 184.1; when the line was at 190.0 with a 5.9 point variance, it was still not a play. I'm sure glad I waited til it reached 190.5 (and happy for those that were smart and waited until after I played it to jump on the higher line). Nobody ever made money on gambling because they knew everything - you've got to have luck on your side from time to time.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:

FINAL PLAYS:

Phoenix vs. Dallas UNDER 190.5 (1 unit)

1-0, +1.0

Not going to lie - went to bed after the 3rd quarter chalking this one up as a loss. I'm watching the highlights now and even though I know the final score, I feel like my balls are dropping for the first time seeing the final 30 seconds. I wait for a 6+ point differential between my line and the actual line before considering any game a play. My line for this game was 184.1; when the line was at 190.0 with a 5.9 point variance, it was still not a play. I'm sure glad I waited til it reached 190.5 (and happy for those that were smart and waited until after I played it to jump on the higher line). Nobody ever made money on gambling because they knew everything - you've got to have luck on your side from time to time.

Same here dude.  Had under 192.5 and under 95 2h.  Went to bed with 9 minutes left in the 4th thinking "well at least I made a little money with my other plays.". Woke watching the news, the bottom line came through and I'm thinking "need a miracle.". HUGE night for me. Thanks for another winner.
 
 
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Posted: #46
Correction, I had 192, not 192.5.
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