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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



1. Since when did you start talking about yourself in the third person?

2. What do you think is a realistic percentage of times that you win your SAS bet in this spot out of 100 -- 60? 70?

It was nothing more than a joke...I've been watching a lot of old Rock promos lol

out of 100, Spurs cover this line 90 times.


 
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Posted: #102
I love waking up to overreactions.

1. The 3rd person bit was a joke lol, but I can see how that would be difficult to interpret over a keyboard.

2. I made my play and for my reasons stated. Like I said earlier, if you like it, then bet it, if you don't then bet Philly.

I have had plenty of plays this season where handfuls of people come into my threads telling me how it's so bad, how it's gonna lose. Maybe I will lose tonight, who knows. I win more than I lose and that's what counts in my eyes.

Gentleman, nothing is every guaranteed in the betting world. I bet where I perceive and edge, and tonight I see it on the Spurs.

I wish everyone the best of luck.


 
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Posted: #103
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:


It was nothing more than a joke...I've been watching a lot of old Rock promos lol

out of 100, Spurs cover this line 90 times.





Come on man, you are throwing all of your credibility out of the window with this statement.
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:




Come on man, you are throwing all of your credibility out of the window with this statement.
You asked my opinion. 9 times out of 10 in this same exact situation, I have the Spurs covering this situation.

I'd like to know how I am throwing my own "cred" out the window by giving my opinion....

Please answer that.


 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

I understand why anyone would be on Philly because they have played well at home.

But hear me out guys.

For anyone who has been following me all season long, I have my reasons for every single play. And I always get a handful of people who wanna tell me how wrong I am before the game even starts.

So if ya disagree, that's fine with me. If ya wanna debate, I'll just refer you to post 1 where my record is posted.

I like the Spurs, gl to everyone.



Always a class act.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

You asked my opinion. 9 times out of 10 in this same exact situation, I have the Spurs covering this situation.

I'd like to know how I am throwing my own "cred" out the window by giving my opinion....

Please answer that.




so why only 1 unit play then???

It what you are saying is true, what is the percentage of covering on your 3 or 5 unit bets? 95%? 99%?


cmon man. If its 60% then its more than a great bet.

But 90%...seriously?




gl with that
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

You asked my opinion. 9 times out of 10 in this same exact situation, I have the Spurs covering this situation.

I'd like to know how I am throwing my own "cred" out the window by giving my opinion....

Please answer that.





You aren't throwing your credibility out the window by giving an opinion -- that's what we all do here. It's the content of your opinion that I believe throws your credibility out the window. As someone who has, by their own words, done this for years, you have to understand the concept of variance, right? I mean if you truly do believe that every 10 times you make this bet, you will win 9 of them, why is this only a one unit play? What does your confidence level have to be for a higher than one unit play?

You either don't understand the concept of variance or you are not being honest about your confidence level in this bet. Either way, your credibility is damaged.

/just one man's opinion
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:




You aren't throwing your credibility out the window by giving an opinion -- that's what we all do here. It's the content of your opinion that I believe throws your credibility out the window. As someone who has, by their own words, done this for years, you have to understand the concept of variance, right? I mean if you truly do believe that every 10 times you make this bet, you will win 9 of them, why is this only a one unit play? What does your confidence level have to be for a higher than one unit play?

You either don't understand the concept of variance or you are not being honest about your confidence level in this bet. Either way, your credibility is damaged.

/just one man's opinion

Nice point, I guess its a light bulb moment for other people
 
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Posted: #110
 GOOD LUCK!
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:




You aren't throwing your credibility out the window by giving an opinion -- that's what we all do here. It's the content of your opinion that I believe throws your credibility out the window. As someone who has, by their own words, done this for years, you have to understand the concept of variance, right? I mean if you truly do believe that every 10 times you make this bet, you will win 9 of them, why is this only a one unit play? What does your confidence level have to be for a higher than one unit play?

You either don't understand the concept of variance or you are not being honest about your confidence level in this bet. Either way, your credibility is damaged.

/just one man's opinion


The 1u play has nothing to do with me feeling that the Spurs cover here 9 out of 10. The 1u play is simply money management. With a goal to hit 100u on the season, my larger plays have to be calculated. I like this play a lot, I think it has a high probability of hitting, that doesn't mean I'm going in for 2 dimes either.

And I don't think my credibility is shot at all, and I find that statement to be a bit ironic coming from someone who doesn't even put money on his own plays.


 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:




You aren't throwing your credibility out the window by giving an opinion -- that's what we all do here. It's the content of your opinion that I believe throws your credibility out the window. As someone who has, by their own words, done this for years, you have to understand the concept of variance, right? I mean if you truly do believe that every 10 times you make this bet, you will win 9 of them, why is this only a one unit play? What does your confidence level have to be for a higher than one unit play?

You either don't understand the concept of variance or you are not being honest about your confidence level in this bet. Either way, your credibility is damaged.

/just one man's opinion


Spot on. True. 9 out of 10 times Spurs will cover this, yet it's only a 1 u play. I don't give a shit about who will cover in this game, but something about that 90% confidence in the play and only 1u play doesn't feel right.
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:



The 1u play has nothing to do with me feeling that the Spurs cover here 9 out of 10. The 1u play is simply money management. With a goal to hit 100u on the season, my larger plays have to be calculated. I like this play a lot, I think it has a high probability of hitting, that doesn't mean I'm going in for 2 dimes either.

And I don't think my credibility is shot at all, and I find that statement to be a bit ironic coming from someone who doesn't even put money on his own plays.




Hey, I've never held myself out to be some grand expert, just a dude who is trying to improve his capping game. You are allowed to have your opinion just like I am allowed to have mine. I make plays to try to stay sharp and for fun right now at this point in my life with a child on the way that is going to eat up much of my previously available burn/entertainment money.

I guess that makes my picks somehow less valid in your mind. So be it.
 
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Posted: #114
I'm with you SB...you win, I win...you lose, I lose...
 
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Posted: #115
haha kapono we are on the same page
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



Hey, I've never held myself out to be some grand expert, just a dude who is trying to improve his capping game. You are allowed to have your opinion just like I am allowed to have mine. I make plays to try to stay sharp and for fun right now at this point in my life with a child on the way that is going to eat up much of my previously available burn/entertainment money.

I guess that makes my picks somehow less valid in your mind. So be it.
I have nothing against you kap, I just don't really understand the attack. Seems that everything you talk to me about is not in a positive manner, hopefully that's just the way you are coming across and that isn't your intent. Nothing wrong with picking games for fun either....

Congratulations on being a dad
 
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Posted: #117
smart, I really appreciate the picks.  I never bash anyone for sharing an opinion.

However, a couple of times now you said that you "perceive an edge" on the Spurs.  Respectfully, I just think many of us are wondering exactly what that "edge" is... without giving away trade secrets.

So far, the only thing I've been able to deduce is that you think the Spurs will be focused.  Is there something else?
 
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Posted: #118
This will be my last post on the issue of "9 times out of 10"

I get what you guys are saying, in terms of variance.

For anyone who knows how I bet, I'm very selective. There are a lot of bets where you go down to 6 out of 10, and I don't bet those. This is how I play the game.

Anyone can laugh at me all they want or think that my cred is out the window, that's fine with me. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

So this is how I break it down.

I look at the schedule spot, then add the line into the mix.
This is where I base the play, and where I see the value in determining 9 times out of 10, Spurs cover.

Now factors in grading the play.

In this matchup it is simple.

1. Philly at home has been lights out
2. Spurs on the road have not been good at all.

Out of my respect for Philly, and the Spurs road issues this season I decided to throw down 1 nickel on the game.

And as I stated before, my goal right now is to get to 100u in the regular season. Money management will play a huge role in getting there.

Everything I have stated is how I determine the "grade" on my play.

I hope this clears up any confusion, I know I bet and think differently than most. I'm sure most people who view a 9 out of 10 would make a 3,4,5u play. I just do things a bit different.



 
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Posted: #119
Smartbets/Kap... Come on guys play nice. In the words of the waterboy, "best of luck to you on the upcoming play."

 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

I have nothing against you kap, I just don't really understand the attack. Seems that everything you talk to me about is not in a positive manner, hopefully that's just the way you are coming across and that isn't your intent. Nothing wrong with picking games for fun either....

Congratulations on being a dad


I'm not trying to attack you smart, it just didnt make sense to me that you could have been doing this for many years and realistically believe that your bet will hit 90% of the time. I have only been doing this seriously with the NBA for three years, and I don't believe there is any situation that comes up during the NBA regular season or playoffs where one side or the other has an objective 90% chance of winning/covering. There is just too much variance in my experience to get that high of a confidence level.

I try to learn from people who are good cappers and have had success this year and previous years because as I said above, I am no expert and don't hold myself out to be.  All I am is a diehard NBA fan/junkie, that's it, nothing more. I have love for the game of basketball in my blood. But in conjunction with wanting to improve my capping game, when I see something that doesn't make sense to me I have to ask questions or else I won't learn or get better.
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by Sal_Tessio:

smart, I really appreciate the picks.  I never bash anyone for sharing an opinion.

However, a couple of times now you said that you "perceive an edge" on the Spurs.  Respectfully, I just think many of us are wondering exactly what that "edge" is... without giving away trade secrets.

So far, the only thing I've been able to deduce is that you think the Spurs will be focused.  Is there something else?
Yes it is something else, several factor actually. PM me, don't want this to get too off subject.
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

I have nothing against you kap, I just don't really understand the attack. Seems that everything you talk to me about is not in a positive manner, hopefully that's just the way you are coming across and that isn't your intent. Nothing wrong with picking games for fun either....

Congratulations on being a dad



SB, we are just trying to have a solid conversation about a game/pick.

the 90% is just not right and you know it and ofc we know it.

I really hope you continue your great run, but as your nickname says, a smart bet is when you put bigger unit count on a play that you are so confident it will hit.

I really dont see the point if you, for ex. tomorrow do a 5 unit play and you are not atleast 90% confident on it, as you are now.

you are preaching smart bets and you sure arent doing that now.


No offense intended, good luck with your bet
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by NoFumbles:



Spot on. True. 9 out of 10 times Spurs will cover this, yet it's only a 1 u play. I don't give a shit about who will cover in this game, but something about that 90% confidence in the play and only 1u play doesn't feel right.

Something about his 1U play which for him is $500 doesnt make sense?  Its his opinion that 9 out of 10 times they can cover this....hes not claiming its a fact.  The guy is up 83 units, i believe i read somewhere that he once stated his goal for the season was +50 units ( i could be mistaken but i believe i read that in one of his threads)......therefore, at +83 units already, i think its smart that he's not making stupid wagers like half these clowns on this site....posting "10unit play of the day".

You need to read this post i made earlier......a few of you do actually:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101264839

 
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Posted: #124
Also like the Spurs here Smarts I think the Spurs sneak out a win against Philly here
 
 
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Posted: #125

Plus he gave reasons behind the 1U play!!!!!!  And i apologize, your goal is +100 units, idk why i thought i read +50 was your goal for the season, my bad! 

I think people over-analyze every word...

Slow and steady wins the race!

 

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