PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Hibbert needs a rest.  He's played a lot of minutes, and he's heavier than he was last year because he added muscle.  I think his body and mind need a game or 2 off.  Wouldn't surprise me if Vogel sat him and got him to calm down.

He's frustrated he's not being involved more in the offense.  This team should be able to use him more, but since they are not hitting their threes, the defense is able to collapse and clog the lane.  When the Pacers are hitting their threes, the defense gets extended and West and Hibbert can do their thing.  Hibbert is a really good dude...I think he's frustrated like everyone else, and all it's going to take is a couple of wins in a row to get them going.

You don't need to feel sorry for me.  Pacers have been very profitable this year

I respectfully disagree with some things you said...

They do have team spirit...they are just slumping and frustrated which happens to lots of teams.  They've won over 50 games this year which we can't ignore, and when they are on top of their game they are one of the elite teams in the league, and a team like that has to have pro ballers on it.

As far as the coach, one thing people forget about when they say fire the coach, is who would you replace them with?  Vogel is a fantastic coach...I have a couple problems with some of his coaching or lack of coaching in situations, but overall he's solid.  There are some really bad coaches in this league, and it's hard to find a good NBA coach.  He's not in the category of Carlisle, Pop or Rivers, but he's good.  Sometimes it's easy to point the finger at the coach, but other times you have to look at the players and say you guys got to get your sh*t together.

then wtf is goin on? its all over nba news with team mates calling each other out.  Selfish is a word that screams team is all fked up.

last night with 1st half was LOLLLLOLLOLOLOLO in nba history.

they get paid big money the coach and the pacers. Caliing them pros is laughable. something is not connecting. and its sad. they were one of the best begining. now they are looking like the lakers.

(its sad cause im from LA to say that, but at least we got the clippers.)

hey at least you got nascar
indy 500

pacers under been good money also.

I've been saying it for the last 2 months there is something wrong with this team. The only reason they have over 50 wins is because they play in the east in the west they would have not made the playoffs because they would be under 500. I feel watching this team there is no respect for the coach he's lost this team. I don't know why but he has lost this team. I also don't think that they just turn it on in the playoffs. They have some real problems on the offensive side of the ball 1) shooting,2) spacing ,3) taking low % shots but one of there biggest problems are there 4) turnovers way too many for a good team. If you expect to win as a coach you are constantly talking about limiting your turnovers and winning the battle on the  offensive boards. I'm not sure where they stand at offensive rebounding stat but I'm sure it's not great. Plus I don't think there defense is as good as last year it's just that there offense is so bad it gives the perception that there playing good defense. Also finally there bench is really terrible I mean terrible that hurts. They most likely will win the first round (maybe) but that's it no way they go any further. They have regressed as a team.

they've $ the last 2 months if u bet against them ats, and if u bet for them the first 2 months

The pacers are 11:2 to win the championship.

I wouldn't put anything on them to win the Championship.  Even if they can make the finals I don't like the way they matchup against the West elite.  If they get better odds to win the East, that's worth a look.

Futures are like stocks.  Buy when the value is low...sell when the value is high.  We just watched UCONN win a national title and less than a month ago they lost by 30 and everyone wrote them off.  They played a Kentucky team that people wrote off because they were too young and inexperienced.  Think back to when the tournament started if someone would've said they were taking a future bet on UCONN.  You would've laughed at them.  UCONN was 100-1 to win the title before the tournament started.

I'm not saying the Pacers look good, or that they will absolutely win the East.  But with betting, there are people that are really good at taking futures when everyone else is thinking the other way.  It doesn't take too many future wins a year to turn a profit.  They key to winning those futures is finding the best value...taking a team or player when their value is at their lowest.  Right now the Pacers are at their lowest.

Again, I'm not saying the Pacers look good.  I'm not guaranteeing they will win.  I'm not the crazy homer fan ignoring all the facts.  I'm simply saying that their value is at their lowest...and there is no doubt in my mind that there are professionals out there taking little wagers on Pacers futures to win the East.

Remember the show Covers sponsored called Vegas Sportsday?  One story I'll always remember is when they hit a prop on RGIII to win the Heisman.  Andrew Luck was on fire, but his last couple games were nationally televised, and he had a couple of tough games coming up.  RGIII had just come off a game he didn't play real well in, and people were handing the Heisman to Luck.  They suggested to take a little wager on RGIII at 75-1 to win the Heisman.  RGIII had a good schedule coming up with a couple nationally televised games, and their point was buy low.  When they suggested that I remember laughing at them...then after the season it really made me open my eyes on how to take advantage of futures.  Of course not all will hit, but if you can be the bettor who consistently buys low and sells high, you will come out ahead. 

Anyone follow our NASCAR picks yesterday?  If you did you could take some of your winnings and put some on the Pacers to win the East  

Love the discussion guys...this is how we continue to get better.  And I appreciate everyone keeping it civil and good-spirited.  It's been that way in this thread all year long and it's been refreshing compared to most of the threads I see.

 Great thread Alan. You mentioned in the original thread long before the trade that Granger was on the trading block. As a life long Pacer fan this was something I could not believe that they would ever do. It was unthinkable to me. But what do I know? After all, Danny was the franchise player that this team was built around. The heart and soul of this team even though he was injured. He was a mentor and a friend to his team mates with All Star and Playoff experience. Danny was also the MAJOR reason that Frank Vogel was hired as coach and Frank acknowledged that the day the trade occurred. The team loved Danny and picked it up big time last season when he went down with his knee injury. Their bench sucked last year and having Granger working his way back was thought to be a welcome answer to that problem. The perception of the Pacers being so patient and helping him rehab back into the rotation seemed admirable to the fans. Especially after seeing the Bulls Derek Rose in a similar situation being lost for another season when coming back too soon. While Granger's progress may have been seen as too slow, there were high expectations that he would be full strength by playoff time and a major contributor.  

 Now I'm not as eloquent or as savvy as some like yourself and Scal. But it was a very sad day in the Pacer organization when the local news showed Granger saying farewell to his team mates for the last time as he headed off to the god awful 76ers. What a slap in the face and gratitude for his past contributions. You could see the shock and disappointment on all of their faces. But business is business. To me it said anyone of you could be next and then the air went out of this team. And trading for the disgruntled Bynum who also had a nagging knee injury seemed bone headed to me. What were they expecting to gain if he couldn't play? Yeah I know he was expected to back up Hibbert and Mahinmi. Then CJ Watson goes down and the bench goes back to being suck.

 You mentioned in the previous thread the effect that one trade can make as it pertained to the trading of Ron Artest - I think it was. (?) Yes, this team has some big time troubles which seemed to have started when Granger got traded. That was the day the music died. Larry Legend should have known the fallout this trade would have on the team's chemistry. Frank definitely has his work cut out for him to regain the chemistry they once had. Just my two cents.

I know this team inside and out...but even I didn't have the slightest clue how close the team was to Granger...especially Paul George.  Couple that with baby mama drama, and it has been a strange snowball effect on the team. 

As for Larry knowing the fallout, I'm not sure even he could've seen this coming.  Granger wasn't contributing a lot of production, and they were steamrolling teams so I think he truly believed the trade was good.  Also, don't forget the money situation.  They just didn't have the cap room to keep him and Lance.  Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, but you bring up a great point with the bench.  The bench went from being a strong asset to a liability in only a couple months.  Really bizarre.  And I never thought I would say we need CJ Watson, but facts are facts.  The bench needs him.

Pacers play at the Bucks tonight...

It's pretty tough to get a read on this game with the obvious slump of the Pacers, but now we know Vogel is going to "rest" players.  Unfortunately, for us cappers we don't know who, is it for the whole game, just a quarter, whats the lineup going to be, etc.

I'm still left with the conclusion that the Pacers are unbettable from the point spread perspective.

Point total is low, as it should be...89 is pretty low for a 1h total, but I'm still going to roll with it.  Not going to double up if it loses in the 2h...just going to take the win or loss.

Anyone else notice that despite the Pacers horrific slide, that they are only half a game out of the 1 seed?  The Heat are not exactly looking like world beaters these days...could it be possible that the Nets are the team to beat in the East?

Now that we know the Pacers are resting all their starters, the books are adjusting...I'm looking at dimes, and they have the team totals posted.

Pacers o/u 83...Bucks o/u 80.

I'm going to take the over on both.  The Pacers bench plays defense like the Washington Generals.  Bucks defense has given up over 100pts in 26 out of their last 30.  Pacers bench may not be elite talent, but they are still professional basketball players.  IMO those team totals are too low.

And just like that the Pacers have the #1 seed and get a great win for the team.  The Pacers starters mobbed the bench players after the win...haven't seen that excitement from this team in a while.  Massive game Friday will probably decide the 1 seed in the East.

Pacers at Heat

Here we go!  After everything that's happened this season, these 2 teams will play tonight to pretty much determine the number 1 seed in the East.

I'm really surprised at this line.  I figured the game would be Heat -1.5...but to see the line at 6 points is really surprising to me.  I know the Pacers have been slumping, but Miami is struggling as well. 

I never thought a game against the Bucks where the starters sit would determine the future of the Pacers, but there was something refreshing about it.  Scola (who has looked lost the last two months) scored 20, and his jump shot looked fantastic.  Copeland finally produced by scoring the game winning shot, and...oh my gosh...the starters were...wait for it...smiling and laughing!  After the game they ran onto the court, Lance tackled Copeland, and the starters looked like they were enjoying life.

I'm not saying this is a sure thing, but sometimes when teams get into slumps, it's something really weird that gets them out of it.  Maybe, they still struggle, but their body language after the game was completely different than it's been recently.

As for Miami, Lebron looks tired.  He's still a top 2 player in the league, but I watched him play some against Memphis, and he's lost a little speed, a little lift, and a little intensity.  Maybe he turns it up tonight and in the playoffs, but I've said it all year long that they are leaning on him too much and that it will be a miracle if he survives the season.  I'll be watching the Miami rotation tonight as I think we will get a good idea how Spoelstra will use his guys if these two teams end up in a series, especially at the PF, and C positions.  Not sure if they will dust off Oden, but I'd like to see him out there.

As for betting purposes, I don't see how either team should be a 6 point favorite, home or away.  I'll take a bit on the Pacers +6 just because I believe that's fantastic value on a team that's more rested.  Also, going to throw a bit on the 1h under.  Looks like that line is around 90.  If you're a ML player, taking the Pacers at +220 is pretty good value as well.  I would've thought the ML for the Pacers would've been around +150, so I think you're getting some extra value from the books there.

Should be a fantastic game tonight...I can't wait to watch it!

Very tough game to cap with the way things have been going but i agree if u gonna take it gimme the Pacers +6 esp with Wade not playing tonight again,, 

indiana moneyline.  the 6.5 points is bait to try and get people to take the heat moneyline and lose even more. 

Pacers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

Sure that could change tonight.  The line went from 5.5 to 6.5 with the public smashing the pacers ML.  The rest may have helped, but backing the Pacers means you are banking on the hope that they do a 180 tonight in Miami.  If you are hedging the +200 is a good starting point I suppose, but I will be shocked if Indiana wins tonight.

Great stats you provide like always.  I'm kind of throwing out the stats and going with a gut feeling based on what I saw the other night from both teams, and the Heat not having Wade. 

Only 1 play for me today...going to keep rolling with the 1h under 96.  Tough game to cap because we aren't sure what the motivation for the Thunder is...my best advice is to stay away from the line.  No telling what will happen.  Gonna make a post on something I realized about the Pacers and other teams yesterday that might help explain some more about their struggles.

What's sub got to do with it?

I was listening to a podcast the other day and they were talking about Popovich (who is the best basketball coach in NBA history by the way), and I was trying to figure out what he does different from all the other teams, and then I narrowed it down to just what does he do different from Vogel, and it started to become a little more clear what he does that makes a big difference that Vogel and lots of other coaches don't do.

The bench for the Pacers has been awful recently, where as the Spurs never have trouble with their bench.  Then I started to realize the subtle, yet huge difference.

The Spurs have a bench that Popovich uses to create different lineups and matchups against other teams.  The Pacers have a bench that Vogel uses to give the starters a break.

Subtle, yet huge.

So what does that mean?  I'm going to use a small sample size to illustrate a bigger picture.  Take the Spurs recent game against the Suns.  Look at the minutes.  Spurs Starters-  Daye-14, Leonard-34, Splitter-16, Parker-24, Green-38....Spurs Bench-  Baynes-4, Diaw-34, Ayres-20, Mills-28, Belinelli-28.  He had 2 starters that played 16 minutes or less, and he had 4 bench guys playing 20 minutes or more.  Why?  He has a bench that he treats not as subs, but as weapons he can use to create the matchups he wants. 

Now lets take a look at a game against a team with a completely different style of play...Memphis Grizzlies.  Spurs Starters-  Duncan-28, Leonard 30, Splitter-18, Parker-9(left with back spasms), Green-18.  Spurs Bench-  Bonner-12, Diaw-19, Daye-6, Ayres-13, Mills-20, Joseph-21, Ginobili-26, Belinelli-20.  This game there were 13 Spurs players that played 6 or more minutes.  Eleven Spurs players played 12 or more minutes...6 players played 20 or more minutes and 4 of those guys started on the bench.

These games were recent games which means he's used the regular season to get all these guys minutes, and roles to where at the end of the year he has 13 guys on the roster he trusts and uses to lead the team to the leagues best record.

Now let's look at a couple of Pacers games.  I'm going to take a box score of game they won early in the year against Chicago.  Pacers Starters minutes-  West-31, George-39, Hibbert-37, Watson-27, Stephenson-32.  Pacers Bench minutes-  Scola-16, Mahinmi-10, Sloan- 21, O. Johnson-18.

Now let's skip ahead later in the year to a game they lost against Minnesota and look at the minutes.  Pacer Starters minutes.  West-27, George-36, Hibbert-24, Hill-32, Stephenson-37.  Pacers Bench.  Scola-10, Copeland-11, Granger-18, Mahinmi-23, Watson-15.

See the difference?  The starter minutes look identical even though the opponents style of play is different, and these games were months apart.  The rotations don't change, and the bench's role is to spell the starters.  The Spurs use different rotations night in and night out, and they have the flexibility to adjust on the fly to injuries, shooting slumps, foul trouble, opponents style of play, etc.

The Pacers have been depending on the starting 5 all year long, and they are struggling recently, but because early in the year the bench was taught that they're role was just to get the starters a little rest, they aren't ready to come in and take charge, and be a mental and physical "pick me up" for the team.  If the Spurs starters are struggling, no problem...they just bring in their bench guys who understand they are as important to the team as their starters. 

So what are the results of the way the Spurs do things?

1.  Not as much wear and tear on the stars.  Just look at Duncan.
2.  Their bench players get more experience in big moments so they're prepared for later in the year.
3.  Bench players know they are as important as the starters.  They have confidence, and they are always ready to play big minutes.
4.  A great coach now has way more lineup options.
5.  Injuries, foul trouble, and slumps don't crush the team since there is a bench full of capable players.

And let's really pound this home.  The Pacers subs played against the Bucks starters.  Everyone was shocked when Vogel announced he was resting the starters.  The line from the books dropped 5 points.  What does that mean?  Nobody has faith in the Pacers bench because nobody has seen what they can do...maybe they have talent and Vogel has been hurting their development.  Pacers subs go out and win...and everyone was so shocked that even the Pacers starters mobbed them on the court.  But look at the production that game...they shot almost 50% from the field, 46% from 3 point, only had 11 turnovers, and scored 104 points.  This is with pretty much no minutes in meaningful games this season. 

The game minutes mentioned above with the Spurs and Suns?  Pop rested Duncan and Ginobili...nobody said anything...the line didn't move...and what did they do?  Beat a playoff team by 8.  The line didn't move, and nobody mentioned the rest because everyone knows the Spurs bench plays about as good as the starters.

So we have 2 teams.  One who depends on the starting 5 for all their production, and now over the course of the season has not developed their bench for pivotal situations even though they just showed they can beat a bad NBA team straight up.  The other team uses their bench night in and night out, and now has 13 guys who can play meaningful minutes in their playoff run, and in big games to finish out the regular season.

I'll finish this out by saying the Pacers aren't the only team that does this, and that Vogel isn't the only coach that does this.  Just look at Miami, OKC, Golden State, etc. to see examples of not developing and using the bench.  Maybe the Spurs win the championship this year, maybe they don't...but we can see why they are always near the top, and we see in Indiana what can happen when the starters struggle, and there's nobody on the bench who can pick them up.  After watching the bench win the game against Milwaukee I hope Vogel came to the realization that he dropped the ball on the rotation and bench development, and maybe this season and this circumstance will help him in future season.  That's what great coaches do...learn from mistakes.  Only time will tell if he's good or great.  As for Popovich?  Just another example of why he's great.

So to answer the question based on the Tina Turner song, What's Sub Got To Do With It?  Apparently a lot.

Great insight on spurs team and I think you are 100 % correct 

The thing is Pop is a genius GM first and a pretty good coach second. Just compare the Pacers bench with the Spurs bench, and you'll have your answer. But the Pacers looked fairly decent today. Stevenson is crazy again and West was balling. Even with Hibbert playing like crap they might still get to the East finals.

That spurs sub write-up should be the lead feature on Espn.com (and I'm glad it isn't because the more squares know, the less leverage cappers "in the know" have).