PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL...YEAR 2

 

You did the same thing all of last year where you had all these winning leans and never jumped on them.

I didn't expect anything to change. It is a good bettor's Achilles heel.

Pacers play the Milwaukee Bucks tonight...I'm sure everyone will be tuned in.  I'm surprised they didn't move this game over to ABC primetime.

I think this game is set up nicely for an over.  The Bucks have problems stopping points inside the paint, and Hibbert and Scola should have good nights.  The Bucks are getting good production from the guards, and the Pacers don't have the defense on the perimeter to slow down aggressive guards.  I also think this game will be close which is always good for the overs.

Not a massive play as I'm still trying to get a feel for this team, but I think over 192 is a solid play.

I am tailing , thanks for the pick.

Awful loss last night as the over was never in play. 

Only a few games into the season obviously isn't enough to make concrete decisions about a team, but I was clearly wrong about something with this team.

I came up with the OH system last year, and it worked great, but I said I didn't think it was applicable this year.  As it turns out, it has been for the first three games, and I think the Pacers offense is going to continue to struggle.  So, it worked last year, and I'm going to go back to the well.

Going to play the 1h under...if it hits we're done.  If it misses, we play the 2h under.

As a brief recap for those that weren't in the thread last year, the OH system stands for One Half.  It's a theory that the Pacers lack of offense, and decent defense will make at least one half a game go under.  Last year it was incredibly successful, so we will see if it continues this year.

Side Note:  If you wonder why the Pacers easily gave up on signing Lance Stephenson, and why I said I thought the Pacers played those negotiations perfectly...just watch a little bit of a Charlotte game.  The latest Bill Simmons podcast touched on it a little bit, and I was glad they did.  The Pacers seemed to get some flack for letting him go as easy as they did, but seeing his on court antics in Charlotte should show people the Pacers played it right.

Nice analysis Alan on the Pacers I like this thread.  I believe it is too early to write Lance off, lets give it a few more weeks and see what happens gl.

Interesting info, thanks for the post.

Also agree that the Pacers were wise to let Lance go. He's a big reason for the Hornets slow start.

Pacers will be fine once they get Hill, West, and Watson back. Paul George injury was so unfortunate because Pacers could've done some real damage in the East. As it is, they'll still beat some quality teams with the other 3 back and make the playoffs.

OH system cashing in easily first half.  Just awful basketball being played.  A winning ticket is still a winner...but I don't feel like a "winner" trying to watch this game.

Thank you Alan, easy money

I feel like such an idiot.  I had this great piece to write earlier this summer, and I completely forgot.  So before I forget again, let me get it out there.

If you are looking for a quick, get rich quick gambling system this isn't for you.  If you love basketball, and you know the history and are interested in the future…this is most definitely for you.

Before I get into the story, let me give a little bit of my basketball background.  Most of you followed my thread last year, but one thing I never did was tell everyone how I got into basketball…so here goes.

I will first say that I currently run a video production business making TV shows, commercials and any other type of video imaginable.  I graduated college in 2002 and started my own business and have never looked back.  To supplement my income over the years, I've waited tables, bartended, and worked over night room service at a hotel…but there is one job that I got early on in life that I learned more from than anything else, and because of my life experiences I still do it to this day.

I went to Indiana University, and as a freshman in 1998 I got into refereeing intramural basketball for some extra money.  I was making $9 an hour…lol.  I got very good, really fast along with one of my buddies and one of my bosses asked me if I would sub for him at the Bloomington Sportsplex for a few men's league games.  I went there for a night, and they told me I was better than the guy I subbed for and could I take all of his games.  Since the games paid $20 a game (each game an hour) of course I said OK.  It didn't take long for me to get my friend involved and since we lived together the guy scheduling games at the SportsPlex loved to just schedule me and my friend on one court all night.  After a couple of months we got introduced to AAU basketball.

When we started reffing AAU basketball we didn't know much about it, but in Bloomington at an elite AAU destination we got a really quick lesson.  We were by far the youngest refs, but teams and coaches liked us because we were athletic enough to keep up with the teams, and we were college kids who didn't give a f*ck what players, coaches, and fans said to us.  We were in our own zone, and it became a cash cow for us.  We would ref 3 games Friday night, go out and party like rockstars, then get there at 8 am on Saturday and ref from 8 am - 10 pm (yes you read that right) the go party like rockstars and ref the championship games on Sunday.  We would get home in the middle of the afternoon and go to sleep till Monday morning when we had class.  But we would have $500-$600 cash every weekend from the games.  Unbelievable money for college students.

SIDE NOTE:
(Looking back on those years I feel pretty bad for the teams we reffed at 8 in the morning.  It took us a good 45 minutes to run off the hangover, and we had more than one coach tell us we wreaked of booze, but almost all of them agreed that us being hungover were better refs than the old guys who couldn't run and had terrible basketball IQ.  We never got complaints to our boss, but I truly believe that the coaches that knew how hungover we were totally understood and wished they could be the college partying guys we were.)

It really is amazing what life lessons you can learn from reffing basketball games.  We would run into a lot of the same coaches and players every weekend, and believe it or not I ran into a coach I reffed a lot in college several years later, and his company needed my services for video production and he was able to give me lots of business because we had great experiences with each other years before in AAU basketball.  You learn what makes leaders successful, you learn how to be in charge, you learn how to deal with all different personalities, and you see all the traits of the successful, and all the traits of the failures.  Just shutting my mouth and looking around and seeing what everyone else was doing around me was more information than any college class I took.  All I had to do was pay attention, and I could learn what separated the great teams from the good teams…and the good teams from the sh*tty teams.  I run a successful video production business right now, but I still referee games 3-4 nights a week because I learn so much about business and personal interaction and what works and what doesn't. 

Being a referee in Bloomington was stressful.  College scholarships are on the line.  AAU coaches are looking to get their players into big colleges because they want assistant coaching jobs.  Parents want their kids to get offer sheets.  And when I started, the shoe companies were just getting started into their big money pouring into AAU.  I've reffed in front of coaches such as Bob Knight, Tom Izzo, Gene Keady, and Mike Kryzewski, and seeing the most successful college coaches compared to the lower tier coaches is really eye-opening.  It was something that started out as beer money for me at college and it has turned into one of the best learning tools I could've ever gotten in terms of learning how to run a successful business.  And yes, I've reffed guys that are in the NBA right now, and I've reffed guys that used to be in the NBA, but no I'm not going to mention the players names.  Let's just say it was pretty easy to see who was going to succeed and who wasn't.

So what does this have to do with the NBA?  As a ref, I've seen the trends in the NBA years before they happen because of what happens in AAU.  If you want to know what's going to happen in the NBA in 8 years…go watch AAU tournaments.  I'll give an example:

In 1998 if you had an AAU team, let's say in the 8th grade division, and you had a massive center who was bigger than everyone…you were going to win 80% of your games.  No question.  Nobody could keep up with that guy, nobody could outrebound, nobody could body him up.  Same as the NBA with the age of the dominant centers.  Nobody could stop Hakeem, Shaq, Ewing, Robinson, etc.  Then what happened?  I can tell you what happened because I saw it with my own eyes, and the change happened within a matter of a few years.  Teams in AAU figured out that wing players could be way faster than the centers, and they could jump almost as high as the clunky centers could.  AAU teams starting running and gunning and they nullified the advantage centers had.  It happened almost overnight, but good AAU coaches figured it out, and I watched it happen from tourney to tourney.  Now in 2014…having a big physical center is a DISADVANTAGE in AAU.  They can outrun him, tire him out, and he can't outrebound the athletic wing player.  Just look at what Lebron, Kevin Love, and Blake Griffin can do on the boards.  They aren't taller than centers, but they can "out-athletic" true centers.  And they can outrun the centers in transition.  This is new to the NBA within the last 5 years, but it's been going on in AAU for a decade.  The "center" position is a new position.  It should be called the 4b.  Nobody could stop Shaq in his prime until they figured out he couldn't run up and down the floor.  Teams started putting him in transition towards the end of his career and his big frame couldn't keep up.  Look at the NBA now, and the complete lack of big lumbering centers.  They have no place in this NBA.

So what's the next trend?

Here's the trend that you can mark my words will happen moving forward.  If you're looking for the next big stars in the NBA…stop looking in the USA, and look north my friends.  Canada is an underground juggernaut of NBA talent.  You can see it already start to happen, but make no mistake…Canada is putting out elite basketball talent.  I ref an Adidas tournament (one of the biggest AAU tournaments of the year…a tourney I do every year), and these canadian teams are not only beating most US AAU teams…but this year I watched them beat teams to badly, that they were laughing at their opponents as they were dunking on them…in the 2nd quarter of a blowout!!!  These Canadian AAU programs are legit, organized, well coached, well funded…and all the players support each other.  When one Canadian team is playing, another one comes and cheers them on.  They are elite athletes, they have something to prove, and they love making the American AAU teams look bad.  

I talked to a coach this summer, who will go nameless, and he is with the program that Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins came from, and I asked him about Bennett.  He told me that Bennett had a shoulder injury last year that he never fully recovered from, and because he couldn't get 100% he couldn't burn off the fat.  Watch him and Wiggins grow this year, and look out for them in the years to come.  

Probably the biggest thing the elite Canadian AAU programs have going for them is that there aren't too many of them, and the egos are small right now.  They have their pick of the best talent, and when that talent comes together they make each other better.  In the US, the AAU teams have elite talent spread out too thin.  They want to shine on their own.  The most talented kids grow up more athletic than their friends, and their parents boost their ego as do the AAU coaches (both hoping the kids can make them money through scholarships and/or job offers).  Ego's and highlights become more important than the quality of the teammate the player is.  US AAU is becoming 1 v 1 all game long, and it gets to be a game of isolation, and stagnant ball movement.  My best player is better than yours.  It works up to a certain point, but these Canadian teams are the San Antonio Spurs of the AAU circuit.  They combine elite athletes, with elite coaching who put egos in check.  Players want their stats, but they want their team to win even more.

Greg Popovich loves the European players because they know how to pass, and play intelligent in a system.  Dirk Nowitzki is the same way.  The Canadian players are the next wave of superstars.  Bennett and Wiggins are just the beginning.  They may or not become superstars, but make no mistake about it.  Seeing first round draft picks come from Canada will no longer be the exception.  It will be accepted.    Take the intelligence of Dirk and and put it in the body of Deandre Jordan.  Take the basketball IQ of Manu Ginobilli and combine it with the raw physical talent of Lance Stephenson.  Imagine a guard who plays defense like Tony Allen, but who shoots like Steph Curry.  Sports are in a constant state of evolution, I've seen it for 15 years, and the next evolution is coming from Canada.  In 10 years don't be surprised if the league is full of Lebrons.  Just don't be surprised if those Lebrons end every sentence with... "eh". 

Still gonna roll with the OH system tonight even thought the Celtics have been over monsters.  The Pacera have almost no healthy guards right now.  Hard to see where their points are going to come from.

Fantastic read on your ref experience alan -- thank you for the information

Dont you have an opinion on the side?Celtics seem to be the better squad...-4 points aren't much to give at home.

So whats the pick for tonight?

Great read Alan.   For someone that works in the visual medium you are also great withe the words.  

cool to hear your expeirences and insight. thx for sharing bud

Thanks bud.i am tailing.

if first half misses do u double the bet on second half or the same amount?

With this matchup just one unit per play.