2016 Record: 12-2
HEAT +130 to win the series
Yes, I know this opened higher but this is the line now. Who cares what line I got? This is the one you are looking at now and I'm offering the Heat as a pick.
Why?
1. Kyle Lowry
Bottom line: The guy is injured. He was injured last year vs. the Wizards and they smoked the Raps in 4, in part, because of it.
Not only is he injured but he aggravated the injury in game 7. He's had one decent game in his last 16 games.
His series stats? 13.9 pts. 31.6% shooting. 16.3% 3pt-FG!!!
Folks they aren't winning because of him, they are winning in spite of him.
16 games of below average play screams things will stay status quo or get worse, plain and simple. And you can't have that happen in later playoff rounds.
2. Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan
Lowry again? Yes. Because he's a dynamic duo with Derozan.
You want to take the Raptors? Well here is what you are getting from your two best players in the playoffs.
The combined averages of the two during the regular season:
44.7 Pts; 43.6% FG; 36.3% 3Pt FG; 9.2 Reb
The last 7 playoff games?
31.8 Pts; 31.7% FG; 16.5% 3 Pt FG; 7.7 Reb
That is an extraordinarily troubling drop-off.
The only reason the Raps are winning is because they have a much deeper bench this year. Biyambo; Joseph; Powell; Patterson. These guys are coming up big.
But I said it before and I'll say it again: this is a league of stars. Your stars will get you to the promised land and the more you depend on role players for the bulk of your output, the less good fortune you'll find in the playoffs.
3. Game 7
Well let's look at the respective Game 7's. It could be argued the Heat had a tougher draw and record-wise and seeding-wise.
The problem was that Indy looked as good as the Raptors did all series and it came down to the very last possession to decide it.
Now how did the Heat close out their series against a gutsy and talented Hornets team?
A 33 point shellacking...the 5th largest win in a game 7 ever.
What does that speak to? Experience. Tradition. Culture. Championships. Talent. Will to win.
All of which the Raptors had less of and in some areas, none of, and it showed.
Did you watch their game 7 folks? Yes they had big leads. But as you expected, they gave it all away because they had the 15 year losing streak in the first round on their shoulders. They are young, inexperienced and got tight at the wrong time (and didn't cover). And they had some nice home cooking with the refs as the NBA admitted to a call that should have went the Pacers way late (with Mahinmi).
A highlight: 4/20 shooting in the 4th. Every possession waiting until the last 5 seconds to move the ball. Do that against Miami and you will pay dearly.
4. Joe Johnson
This is a footnote in the series but noticeable nonetheless. The last time Derozan and Johnson went head to head in the playoffs? Nets Vs. Raps which the Nets took in 7 in 2014.
While Johnson has slowed, this series certainly can spark some confidence in him as he average 21.9 in that series. This is a possible psychological motivator and confidence builder the JJ when the Heat need it most.
5. Hassan Whiteside
The Raps love to go inside and this guy his a whole different ballgame in comparison to Mahinmi.
Not only that, but Miami was a rebounding leviathan with him on the floor towards the end of that series. In games 4-7 they outrebound the Hornets +10, +9, +15, +22!
Derozan and Lowry will have a much tougher time with their traditional games of driving to the hoop and will lean on mid-range jumpers and threes more which they haven't been hitting.
6. Experience
Raptors - 2 playoff series wins in 21 years.
Heat? Do we even need to go through it? This is a comment on culture. This is a winning culture and that matters.
Heat - 630 games of playoff experience vs. 260 for the Raptors. That matter folks.
7. Intangibles
- The hangover effect from the Raptors win. Although the Heat have one day to travel, the Raps had the late game while the Heat played at 1 pm. They have the entire day to cool down while the Raps still may be on cloud nine today after the biggest win their franchise history.
- Dragic, the guy the Heat brought in precisely for this series (to get back to glory), had 25 last game, a revelation from someone who was underperforming, stepping up in the biggest of spots.
- Both these teams have identical almost records since Feb 28th 17-8 (Raps) vs. 16-8 (Heat). Therefore, they both are on even footing and with Lowry injured, the Heat have an advantage in terms of momentum
- The Lebron effect. You know this Heat team is fully confident it can go toe to tow with the Cavs in the ECF. That will motivate them even more. Imagine losing Lebron and knocking out Lebron and the Cavs to go to the Finals. That's almost as good as a championship they almost certainly couldn't win this year against the West.
- Raps went 3-1 against the Heat during the regular season but never faced a fully healthy Heat team.
- Does Bosh get on the floor against his former team as he's campaigning for? Probably not, but if there's a slim possibility he does, more advantage to the Heat.
This is not a Raptors team that can win the East. They lose here or to the Cavs. And after their first playoff win in 21 years, their season is already a success. While Paul George will no longer be a lockdown defender against the Raps, we have Wade and company and an experience class to take this bet home. Only need to go 1-1 in the the first two to get an advantage so this bet can be sized up after Game 2.
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