Trust the Chase - Year Long Thread

Hitting like a dream so far... will update tomorrow.

 Amazing work Arakias! Been following since the start. Appreciate the post and hard work. Keep it rooling

Only 1 game on the menu today for our system. 

Lakers/Grizzlies OVER.

Total currently set at 218.

Grizzlies are a game 2 play, so 4 units total to wager.

All the other teams tonight are NO ACTION for the system.

This is a situation where I will play the system as opposed to my gut. Gut says under... system says over. Rolling with the system because its been hitting hard.

@Prof66HBK

 Thank you for the kind words! Just keep in mind, it could turn ice cold any second. Last year, it won 10 game 6 bets and lost only 3....

In previous years, it lost more than it won. Tough to say if we will have a great year or a bleh year. So far, its off to a red hot start though.

No chase has gone past game 5, and currently the longest chase is the Knicks. They'll be on game 4 on their next game. 4 teams on game 3 right now.

Grizzlies move to game 3. Full updates tomorrow AM.

Gut was right! Great work nonetheless 

Little update.

Some accounting. Last time I totaled our units we were +40.2. Since then, the following teams have won for the following amounts:

Hornets +33.64 units

Cavs +11.55 units

Bucks +1.73 units

Pacers +1.73 units

Kings +0.91 units

This brings our new total to +89.76 units, or in my case +$1,292.54

We now have enough of a cushion, that we could absorb a game 5 loss and still be positive. We have action on 8 games today, and even if we lost all of them, we'd still be positive for the season (not to mention we'd still keep chasing them, and a VAST majority of the time complete a chase for a positive gain anyway).

Interestingly, I'm currently running this system against the NHL, and it seems like it would be wildly successful so far, but alas, I've only checked it against 2019 and 2018. I'd like to have minimum 10 years of data from NBA, NHL and MLB. I'll continue updating this post with the results of my research. This morning I had time to do 2018 NHL and the system would've finished the season +1559.93 units, or in my case, +$22,462.97. In 2019 NHL, +1142.08 units, or in my case +$16,445.96.

Nasty game yesterday,waiting for tonight keep up the good work you do??

@arakias

 Those are crazy stats!

So excited if you do Hockey too, one of my best sports to handicap. Season is around the corner. Keep it real Arakias!  

@Prof66HBK

 Just did 2017 NHL and it would've been $45,971 loser.... f***ing crazy how much it varies from year to year. Was hoping hockey would be more steady, but nope.. Gunna keep going back though. If it's positive over 10 years, i'll do it anyway and hope for a few positive years before a bad one. Same with NBA and MLB.

2016 NHL horrible too... RIP, there goes that idea. lol.

My only thought left is to go back through ALL the spreadsheets, find all game 6 losses, and look for patterns before they happened so that you could try to avoid the majority of them. If you avoid game 6 losses, you are monster winner. The best years are in favor of game 6 winners, and the bad years are the opposite (common sense). But if we could either find a way to avoid the bad years, or the game 6 losses, we'd be in business.

Or...just wait for Game 6 scenarios and double down on those, since losses seem to be far less frequent, according to your numbers?

'Preciate your efforts. Handicapping is way more fun when you gamify/systematize it. Helps avoid the undisciplined bets that kill a roll.

@JamieR44

 On the bad years they're more frequent unfortunately.

In the REALLY bad hockey year, there was more game 6 losses than game 5 AND game 6 wins combined :/

Selection #1 Today:

Rockets/Pacers OVER

Rockets are a game 2 play. Total units to wager is 3.

Total currently sits at 225.5

Selection #2 Today:

Cleveland/Orlando OVER

Orlando is a game 3 play. Total units to wager is 9.

Total currently sits at 214.5

Selection #3 Today:

Wizards/76ers OVER

Philadelphia is a game 1 play. Total units to wager is 1.

Total currently sits at 235

3 more plays to be posted @ 7 EST

Todays Selection #4:

Hawks/Hornets OVER

Atlanta is game 3 play. Total units to wager is 9.

Total currently sits at 232.5

Todays Selection #5: Celtics/Heat OVER

Miami is a game 3 play. Total units to wager is 9.

Total currently sits at 218

Todays Selection #6: Jazz/Knicks UNDER

New York is a game 4 play. Total units to wager is 27.

Total currently sits at 214.5

Todays Selection #7:

Thunder/Pelicans OVER

Thunder are a game 3 play, total units to risk is 9.

Total currently sits at 213.5

Final play from the system until the late games.

Bulls/Kings OVER,

Bulls are game 1 play, 1 unit.

Total @ 228.5 right now.

Sorry for late post! Game hasnt started yet. 

GO KNICKS UNDER! lol

Love the big hits! Nicks Under baby! 

Will run accounting in the morning and knock out a few more years of NHL tracking. Once I’ve got 10 years of NBA and NHL I’ll swap to MLB, then look for opportunities to eliminate game 6 losses.

Rockets move to game 3.

Magic move to game 4.

Hawks move to game 4.

Heat move to game 4.

Bulls move to game 2.

Knicks complete the chase at game 4 for +11.55 units.

Thunder complete the chase at game 3 for +4.18 units.

Philadelphia completes the chase at game 1 for +0.91 units.

Bankroll for the season is now +106.4 or +$1532.16 in my case.

Entering either scary, or make some BIG money, territory with so many teams moving to game 4.

More info to come later today...

Correction, Bulls complete the chase at game 1.

Bankroll for season is now 107.31

Fairly limited action today.

We will have bets on 4 of the 5 games, but 3 of them are one team, for one unit. 

We have NO ACTION on Philly/Brooklyn. More info to come at 7:30 EST.

Today's Selection #1:

Cavs/Grizzlies OVER

Cavs are a game 1 play, Grizzlies are a game 3 play. Total units to risk is 10.

Total is currently set to 210.