Quote Originally Posted by FiatLux4:
Actually, that's what made it scary. They aren't posting a line seven points off without purpose. These guys are serious about their work and have more information than anyone. They know their sh*t. Sure they have been wrong and will be again, however way more often than not, they are on the right side.
That's why I was on the other side of you on the Nets/Cavs game. A -9.5 opening was insane, too insane to not notice. Likewise for this Atlanta opening at -4. That line was backwards and like you and I agree, it should have been -4 going the other way.
I know the game is played on the court but sometimes, red flags go off and I know to lay off or even flip sides. I really hoped I was wrong on this one. I'm sure you got loads of haters (I cant read the entire thread unfortunately) but let them go. Simply not worth the time.
It's been a busy week but I will catch you around sooner or later my man. Stay up!
That is precisely the wrong way to cap a game over the long term.
I have reiterated this time and time again in virtually every thread I have written.
In fact, I didn't need to write an OP. I could have just picked Cleveland and you could have said the exact same thing about the line being off. Line movement studying doesn't need capping.
The line is completely irrelevant to what goes on on the court.
If you want to have action/fool around/make some bets on certain nights, it is a GREAT shortcut and can work out well. Of course I use it to have action.
But when it comes to actually capping a game, you cap the game first then you look at the line.
Most of the people you see here bashing use this line movement method every night.
And why are they so mad?
They are losers over the long term.
They don't care about the cap itself. They want a pick. And then when they can't find one from a posters, one of the methods they use to get a side on a game is line movement.
It's a basic method that can be effective but simply cannot be relied on over the long term.
Sometimes you can cap a game and still lose no matter what (especially when some no name goes off for a perfect night which simply can't be foreseen but must be tolerated) but if you ever see a line that is 7 points off from what you capped it, if you use the "Vegas Knows" method in every instance, it will cost you a lot of money.