What can we expect tonight in Game 7? Probably more of the same

It's been clearly established so far in this series that home court rules. The Mavs can't seem to play well for 48 minutes in Phoenix and the Suns don't even seem to try to play well in Dallas. We were all waiting to see last Thursday if the Suns could significantly improve upon their dismal efforts in Games 3 & 4, and instead the Suns sank to a new low - literally, scoring a season low of only 86 points while suffering their second largest margin of defeat (believe it or not, the Blazers drubbed the Suns by 29 points in the first week of the season). Beginning that night and continuing unabated into the next day, the TV talking head nitwits, paid handsomely to blather forth opinions whether they have any interesting ones or not, delivered their usual verbal mudslide of irrational overreactions. Luka Doncic - was he now the greatest player of all-time?! Or should we wait until he wins one more game until declaring him so? And what about the Suns? Could this be one of the biggest playoff choke jobs we've ever seen? 

As the postmortem of Game 6 concluded and discussion of Game 7 ramped up, many of these commentators gave serious consideration to the possibility that the NBA's freshly-christened best player, the magical Luka, could lead the Mavs past the setting Suns and on into the conference finals. Most of those who chose to stick with the Suns for Game 7 did so timidly, citing that the obvious strength of homecourt in this series could be just enough to get the Suns over the semifinals finish line. Only Stephen A. Smith, of all loudmouths, picked the Suns confidently and even added that it might be a blowout. I think Stephen A. is right.

As someone who's rooting for the Suns, I'd like to forget every game played in Dallas. I didn't even watch the second halves of Games 4 & 6. The reality is that while the Suns were expected to win at least ONE of those road games, they didn't need to. Going into all three of those games, the Suns were never in danger of falling behind in the series if they lost. They had a cushion each time - leading 2-0, then 2-1, and then 3-2. What I've learned is that the Suns haven't played well at all in these playoffs when they have a cushion. The Suns are now 2-5 SU & ATS when leading in the series through the first two rounds. That's horrible, but...in the five games where a loss would have put them behind in the series, they've gone 5-0 SU & ATS. Check it out...

defeated the Pelicans 110-99 in Game 1, 114-111 in Game 3, and 112-97 in Game 5

defeated the Mavs 121-114 in Game 1 and 110-80 in Game 5

Thanks to their inexcusable Game 6 no-show, they are in that position for a sixth time, and this is easily the most urgent situation yet.

Every game in this series (except for Game 1) has been played with only one day off in between games, but tonight the teams will be on 2 days rest. The Suns are 3-0 in the playoffs with more than one day of rest. They excelled all season with more than one day of rest, going 7-1 at home and 6-1 on the road. The lone home loss happened 200 days ago and the lone road loss happened 153 days ago. Since that loss at the Clippers on December 13th, the Suns have gone 12-0 with more than one day of rest, winning those games by an average of 11 points. 

Since November 27th, the Mavs are 7-7 with more than one day of rest, 2-3 at home and 5-4 on the road.

Here's something I learned immediately after Game 6 that I wish I'd known before Game 6. The Mavs were 9-0 this season after losing their previous game by 20 points or more. Now they're 10-0, so without a doubt they respond to being humiliated, and they certainly did after losing Game 5 in Phoenix by 30 points. But now it's the Suns who've been humiliated after losing 113-86. Turns out they also respond well to bad losses. The Suns are 8-1 this season with Chris Paul in the lineup after losing a game by 10 points or more. They are 3-0 in the playoffs. That lone loss happened 200 days ago when Harrison Barnes of the Kings took an inbounds pass with one second left and buried a three at the buzzer.

By the way, are you surprised as I was to learn that the Mavs lost ten games this season by 20 points or more??

I expect this home court series to end as it began, with a Suns win and cover. The Suns are now 11-0 ATS since December 6th when they win at home as a single-digit favorite, including all three home games in this series. The Mavs have fallen into huge holes of 18 points in Game 1, 27 points in Game 2, and 30 points in Game 5. Seems hard to believe that they'll avoid that kind of pitfall tonight and actually win the game. No, not when the Suns had two days off to regroup from Game 6 and not when the Suns need this game more than they've needed a game all season. No cushion for them tonight. The Mavs pushed them this far, but this is too tough an assignment. I'm on the Suns -6.

I’m on suns ml. Good luck brother. 

I take you to the NHL. "Mrusso, who's gonna win the Bruins/Canes series, game 7?" 

"Well, the home team is 6-0, and the games weren't even close. Prior to those games, they played thrice in the regular season, the Canes, the better team all season, won all 3, two OTR, one at home. Why wouldn't I take the Canes at home?"

Canes dominated play winning 3-2 in a game that wasn't that close, a late goal by BOS made it a one score game. Nothing changed.

I think you get the picture. The Suns ain't losing tonight. They'll likely cover the line and a DD win would certainly be possible. They'll score at will tonight. CP3 will have a big 4th quarter. Booker will show why he's the most underrated "star" in the game. Doncic will score 40 but the rest of the Mavs will be lucky to piece 60 together. And nothing will change.

Suns roll. And the series I've been talking about these playoffs comes to fruition, Suns and Dubs. So you Luka fans, the guy is great, makes the game look easy, and Shark Tank fans, you know I've actually come to like Mark Cuban watching that show, will have another year to wait. Your time is coming, but "not yet." (I luv to say that, Gladiator).

@MrBator

 Great writeup, Mr. Bator. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. 

I like the Suns as welll and when I close my eyes and imagine all the ways this game can go I mostly see what you see, a Suns dd win. However, the contrarian in me must point out several things:

1) In all the instances you cite about the Suns needing a win and coming through, none of those were elimination games for them.

2) Game 7s are weird, and you never know how a team will react to the pressure, not even a team as good as the Suns (Warriors v Cavs anyone?). 

3) The Mavs actually have the best player in the series and possibly the second best player in the entire league. That’s scary. What makes it scarier is that he has been in this situation before and almost helped his team beat a loaded Clippers team. 

4) The league agenda. I know, this is conspiracy theory type stuff, but the refs out there might end up playing a role in the outcome, especially if the game is tight. Zarba, one of the officials tonight, suffers no fools, and Brothers, he is a fool: a complete wildcard! 

5) I hate the due angle, but after 6 blowouts w might be due for a close one. 

Good luck with your plays, buddy.

Oh man, I love it when you share your thoughts and info with the forum; but in my long history here I know that long write-ups like this from you usually result in a loss for your pick. Especially in big games like this. Idk, maybe I'm misremembering.  I hope I'm wrong because I'm on the same side.  Maybe I'm the mush. 

sharp money is on suns ml and the under. the under has dropped 5 points,  +6.5 is alot of points in a low scoring defensive game, i think it's gonna be back and forth all game. i have suns winning by 3-5.

looking at power ratings alone, this should be phx -4. the home team has been 6-0 ats but part of it is that whenever the home team goes on a run and gets ahead by 10 the road team just gives up. that's not going to happen in game 7, both coaches are good enough to call timeouts to stop momentum runs. 

luka showed up big time in game 7 at the clippers last year and had the mavs up 5 with 5min to go in the 3rd until the clippers role players just started raining 3s at a 70% clip to end the game. this tells me he shows up in crunchtime. you saw memphis/warriors keep it close all game but didn't have a closer to make the plays when it mattered. luka will make the plays and get to the line down the stretch.

i do think suns role players show up big tonight and book to be clutch down the stretch, but something is wrong with chris paul and it's not just fatigue, he might be going through a midlife crisis or something. fatigue doesn't show up in the first half of every game, especially after he only played so few minutes in game 4. his postgame interview response to losing game 6 was very concerning as well "it's just basketball, it's not like life or anything'. 

@MrBator

 I think the Bucks will not play up to their potential & talents due to what happened after the games 6 at home. They'll not bring back another home game in this post season. They'll have a LOW MORAL, MOTIVATION, and hopeless. BOS needs to win this game to advance to the conference final. 

Love the suns too. Great write-up. Good luck to all!!!!

I'm  on Dallas. They are more hungry 

Does the line not concern you? Line opened at -6 and is at -6.5 right now. ML is pretty low as well -272 at my book considering suns have covered all 3 home games and all 3 have been blowouts. Game 1 was a 7 point win but they were up 21 in the 4th before the garbage points comeback to make it closer than it really was. 

lots of futures bets tied with the Suns. Line is pretty weak IMOH.  Books not giving out free money here 

 Will CP37 Choke   Go Mavs

the write up is compeling for the suns.  Plus, if six games went to the home team the seventh game is going to the home team.

@stevenp

@nitmaster69

 Everytime people criticize CP3, too old, too tired, etc, he has a big game, without fail. As a Suns fan, I thank you and the other detractors. 

If you're saying that maybe they'll get wobbly-kneed because the season is literally on the line, I don't see that happening. They have the experience of winning three rounds a year ago and then playing in the Finals. They won't be scared. I'll even go so far as to say that if this Game 7 was being played in Dallas, the Suns would win. They'd come out with a much more determined mindset than they did in Games 3, 4 and 6. They were just soft in all of those. 

@mrusso

 i have 20k to win 20k on suns/warriors to make wcf. i've put 10k +6.5 and 5k +240. i think suns win but not confident to let it ride with no hedge, i think they win by 3 and hope to middle. gl to us both

Yeah, we've heard a lot the last couple of days about the fact that in his first and only Game 7 a year ago, the magical Luka scored 46 points and collected 14 rebounds. Whoa! Not as prominently mentioned is the fact that his team lost that Game 7 by 15 points.

Thank you MrBator for the write up and sharing the pick! On the Suns also, BOL today

If I were to bet it would be the Suns but I really want the Mavs to win badly bc of all the amount of money Suns have burned me this series too much conflict of interest to bet so staying away but LFG Mavs!

I've been thinking about this for months. We know that ESPN/Disney is out to get Suns owner Robert Sarver, not to mention the NBA itself might want him gone. ESPN came out with a major hit piece before the season began alleging that Sarver had been accused by many team employees of racism and sexism and perhaps other terrible isms. That investigation is supposedly still going? I've been thinking that the NBA would surely prefer to avoid the sight of its alien commissioner Adam Silver handing over the Larry O'Brien trophy to such an awful, awful wealthy white man like Sarver who I'll bet doesn't even fully respect people's preferred pronouns!

That's what Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless think. Shannon Sharpe picked the Suns to advance prior to the start of the series, but on Friday's show he said he gives the Mavs a 48% of winning Game 7. Skip Bayless then topped him by saying he gives the Mavs a 49% chance to win. 

I don't wanna be like Shannon and Skip. They're wrong a lot.

Cool, thanks.  

Thank you sir!!!

BOL!!! 

Interesting you mention going up by 10, because this is as good a time as any to reveal that the Suns are 55-0 this season in all games where they held a double-digit lead in the second half. When they are up by double digits at halftime, or whenever they get that lead up to 10 or more in the second half, it's been game over all season long. The Mavs led in Game 5 by a score of 37-30 and trailed only 49-46 at the half. But, just three minutes into the 3rd quarter, Devin Booker swished a transition three to put the Suns up 61-50 and it was indeed game over for the Mavs.

I think he'll be exhausted down the stretch after again having to carry those bums who can't seem to bring their best games along with them out on the road. Maybe tonight will be different for his supporting cast, but probably not with the Suns defense expected to be at its most smothering.