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2014 "Fade the Hilton"

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Legend
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Posted: #1
2014 "Fade the Hilton"

you know the drill. bet AGAINST the most selected teams and/or bet ON the least selected teams. in 2013 the Fade" went  38-15-2 (71.7%) thru Week 11 & 47-36-2 (56.6%) thru Week 17 (end of season). went 5-0 week 3 and  4-1 weeks 1, 6, 7, 9 & 11 in 2013. "Contra" was 12-6-2 thru Week 13 and 13-11-2 thru Week 17

point spreads from Hilton contest. number of times team selected in ( ). current (Saturday) LVS Superbook (former Hilton) point spread in [ ]. "Contra" = least selected team vs most selected team.

WEEK 1

5 most selected
@ Buccaneers -2 [-3 even] (518) vs Panthers
@ Steelers -6 1/2 [-7 -115] (342) vs Browns
Titans +3 1/2 [+3 even] (339) @ Chiefs
@ Lions -5 1/2 [-6 1/2] (325) vs Giants
Saints -3 [-3] (306) @ Falcons

5 least selected
Panthers +2 [+3 -120] (94) @ Buccaneers
Raiders +5 1/2 [+5} (98) @ Jets
Colts +7 1/2 [+71/2] (105) @ Broncos
Browns +6 1/2 [+7 -105] (-105) @ Steelers
Redskins +3 [+3 even] (110) @ Texans

"Contra"
Panthers +3 -120
Browns +7 -105




 
Legend
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Posted: #2
and PLEASE keep personal picks (and any snotty remarks) OUT of the thread. will try to have just one thread this season for ALL the weekly information and would like to keep it free of useless BS
 
Veteran
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Posted: #3
Best of luck LRR, love the system, was beyond decent first half of last year 
 
Banned
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Posted: #4
THANKS RAT FOR YOUR TIME & EFFORT
 
Rookie
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Posted: #5

Greetings, hockey-playing rodent.

I'm in the contest for the first time this year.  Of my five contest picks in Week 1, I have one of the most popular (New Orleans -3) and one of the least popular (Indy +7.5).  I would hate to have all 5 of the most popular in light of history.

Over 1400 in the contest this year, a new record.

 
Legend
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Posted: #6
BOL
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
All-Star
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Posted: #7
Thanks for the info
 
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Posted: #8
 
Veteran
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Posted: #9
not a savior
 
Veteran
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Posted: #10
Ya toothless hockey lovin person..... I look forward to reading this thread each week! Thanks for your work
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
Great Info. Thanks
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
Merci LRR! All the best this season.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13

Would you consider Oak a "contra pick" since it is a least picked team and the NYJ were picked by the widest margin?

Picked by the Widest Margin LVH SuperContest

TB 424, Pit 236, Det 202, Ten 163, NYJ 155

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Best of Luck  this season LRR   
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by notsoeasymoney:

Would you consider Oak a "contra pick" since it is a least picked team and the NYJ were picked by the widest margin?

Picked by the Widest Margin LVH SuperContest

TB 424, Pit 236, Det 202, Ten 163, NYJ 155

 



not really. as the numbers after the contest spread in ( ) indicate, although the Raiders are the 2nd least selected @ only 98 plays, the Jets were only the 13th most selected team @ 253 plays

in my "matrix" a "Contra" must be a "bottom 5" least selected vs a "top 5" most selected
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Thanks man. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
What about bring back the super contra and include the cowflop flaming five!
 
Veteran
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Posted: #18
I'm in the contest. Urbandecay 19107. The Saints are my only consensus pick. Hope your theory is right.
 
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Posted: #19
thx Le Rink - great info 
 
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Posted: #20
 
Legend
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by wynston731:

What about bring back the super contra and include the cowflop flaming five!


you mean the "Triple Dog Dare Ya" bet against a top 5 selection that is also picked by Colin Cowherd and playing a bottom 5?

this week that would be bet the Panthers +3 -120

the "Hybred Contra" of betting agains a Top 5 selection also picked by Cowheard did pretty good BUT "Triple Dog Dare Ya" only came into play three times and was 0-3

only two that are both Top 5 selected + Cowherd this week are Titans and Buccs which would indicate Panther +3 -120 and @ Chiefs -3 -120




 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
whats the record for the non-fade? (bet on least selected)
 
MVP
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Posted: #23
Thanks   
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:



not really. as the numbers after the contest spread in ( ) indicate, although the Raiders are the 2nd least selected @ only 98 plays, the Jets were only the 13th most selected team @ 253 plays

in my "matrix" a "Contra" must be a "bottom 5" least selected vs a "top 5" most selected

Do you think that has the same weight? Oak being one of the least selected teams and NYJ being picked by a "top 5 margin". Maybe only the 13th most selected team but still picked more times than Oak to make it to the top 5 margin of picks...does that make since? Have you tracked something like that?
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #25
Look forward to this Thread again!! Thanks for the hard work and good info!!
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